Ethereum Battles $2,500 Wall as Treasury Demand and 4-Year Cycle Fuel $3,000 Outlook

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Attempts Recovery as Price Struggles Near $2,500 Resistance

Ethereum (ETH-USD) climbed 2.29% over the past 24 hours to trade around $2,486, as bulls attempt to reclaim momentum following a pullback from $2,502. Despite briefly breaching this resistance, Ethereum failed to sustain the move and now faces renewed pressure near the 50-day EMA. The key level for upside continuation is $2,500, which aligns with both the 200-day SMA and the upper bound of a descending channel. A daily close above this level could ignite a surge toward $2,600–$2,738, while a failure here risks confirming a bearish flag pattern, with downside targets as low as $2,100.

ETH Options Market Signals Uncertainty as Max Pain Hovers at $2,200

A total of 936,000 ETH options, valued at nearly $2.3 billion, are due to expire on June 27. The put-call ratio has risen to 0.95, up from 0.52 earlier in the week, reflecting a shift in sentiment toward bearish caution. The max pain point is currently pegged at $2,200, indicating where option sellers would experience the least financial loss. The recent rise in Ethereum’s exchange reserve suggests increasing sell-side pressure, amplifying the stakes for this expiry event.

Bit Digital and Other Institutions Rotate Toward Ethereum as Staking Appeal Rises

Bit Digital (NASDAQ:BTBT), previously a major Bitcoin miner, announced a strategic pivot toward becoming an Ethereum-centric treasury and staking entity. The firm now holds 24,434 ETH compared to 417 BTC, and plans to use proceeds from a new equity offering to expand its ETH exposure further. BTCS (NASDAQ:BTCS) similarly added 1,000 ETH to its holdings last week, lifting its total to 14,600 ETH. Meanwhile, SharpLink Gaming (NASDAQ:SBET) maintains the largest Ethereum treasury of any public company at 188,478 ETH—approximately $457 million. This growing institutional shift to ETH staking models reflects rising confidence in Ethereum’s yield-generating potential and long-term utility.

Record Activity Across Ethereum Network Highlights Usage Spike Post-Dencun Upgrade

Ethereum just hit 20.2 million weekly active addresses—the highest ever recorded. This surge reflects escalating utility and user engagement, especially across Layer 2 platforms like Arbitrum and Optimism, which saw a 75% increase in traffic in a single week. The usage multiplier now sits at 8.8x, suggesting deeper wallet interactions than in previous cycles. This growth stems from the successful Dencun upgrade in March 2025, which lowered costs and improved throughput across the network. Ethereum currently hosts over 658,000 active wallets operating across multiple blockchain layers, reinforcing its position as the backbone of DeFi.

ETH Price Faces Bearish Risk if $2,500 Breakout Fails—But Cycle Structure Signals Long-Term Upside

While technicals warn of a possible breakdown toward $2,100 if $2,500 fails again, analysts point to a recurring four-year cycle pattern last seen in 2017 and 2021 that may be underway. The pattern suggests Ethereum builds gradually for months before entering explosive phases. The current cycle appears to align with this historical rhythm, with a projected breakout range of $2,738–$2,879 and potential highs surpassing $3,000 if macro and network tailwinds continue. However, price action remains capped for now, as ETH consolidates below key moving averages and the symmetrical triangle’s upper boundary.

Volatility Remains as ETH Futures Liquidate Nearly $50M in 24 Hours

Ethereum futures saw $49.49 million in total liquidations over the past day, with $30.09 million from longs and $19.40 million from shorts. The mixed liquidation flows reflect indecision in the market, coinciding with the upcoming options expiry and resistance zone retest. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillator sit near neutral, with no clear directional momentum, underscoring the critical juncture Ethereum faces.

ETH Treasury Trend Accelerates as Regulatory Pressure Shifts Post-MiCA

Europe’s MiCA regulatory framework has pushed capital toward decentralized treasury models, with Ethereum emerging as the primary beneficiary. The transition aligns with firms like Bit Digital and BTCS aggressively reallocating capital from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This structural shift is not isolated—ETH's growing utility in staking and its robust Layer 2 ecosystem have made it more resilient to centralization risks compared to BTC.

Buy Rating Issued: Ethereum Positioned for Mid-Term Upside if $2,500 Holds Firm

Based on current institutional inflows, network metrics, and technical setup, ETH-USD holds strong upside potential if it breaks and closes above $2,500. The next test lies at $2,738 followed by $2,879, and longer-term targets toward $3,000 align with both the four-year cycle and user activity surge. If $2,500 fails again, a drop to $2,100 remains possible, but buyers are unlikely to let go of the $2,429–$2,486 range without a fight. With treasury adoption rising and sell-side exhaustion likely peaking, Ethereum earns a Buy rating at current levels, with a cautiously bullish outlook into Q3 2025.

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