Technical Setup: Death Cross, EMA Caps, And Lagging ETH-USD Momentum
Technically, ETH-USD is still in a downtrend despite structural support. The daily chart has already printed a death cross, and price sits below key exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA is near $3,075 and the 50-day EMA around $3,250, both overhead. There is a heavier resistance band between $3,350 and $3,435, and another reference level around $3,131. ETH currently trades below all of them, which is not a bullish configuration. On lower timeframes, ETH respects a rising trendline with higher lows on the four-hour and daily charts, but that reflects stabilisation more than a launchpad. RSI is hovering in a neutral-to-bearish band and MACD is close to a bullish cross but still negative, so any upside signal is weak until the histogram flips materially. As long as ETH-USD remains below $3,075 and especially below $3,250, every bounce is technically just a counter-trend rally inside a broader corrective phase.
Support Map: $2,900, $2,880, $2,762, $2,700–$2,750, $2,624, $2,200 And $1,400 For ETH-USD
The downside levels for ETH-USD are clearly layered. Immediate support sits around $2,900–$2,880, which aligns with the repeated bounces near $2,894. If that zone breaks cleanly, the next serious level is $2,762, highlighted as a critical floor; losing it opens the path to $2,700–$2,750, where deeper spot demand is expected to appear. Below that, $2,624 marks the structural lower edge of the broad range. In a harsher macro shock, with Bitcoin sliding toward $74,000 and risk assets selling off, the next technical extension levels at $2,200 (the June low) and $1,400 (the April minimum) become realistic washout targets. The most natural next magnet on a break of $2,880–$2,900 is the $2,700–$2,750 band, while $2,200 and $1,400 represent extreme stress points rather than base-case expectations.
Resistance Map: $3,000, $3,075, $3,100–$3,200, $3,131, $3,250, $3,350–$3,435 And $3,396
Upside levels for ETH-USD are equally well defined. The first line that actually matters is the cluster around $3,000 and $3,075, where psychological resistance overlaps with the 20-day EMA. ETH needs to reclaim and hold that band as support before any serious trend change can be discussed. The next region is $3,100–$3,200, including $3,131 as a horizontal reference; a sustained move above ~$3,130 would show that ETH is finally breaking free from the current two-month downtrend. The 50-day EMA near $3,250 is the real trend-transition marker: holding above it would signal a genuine shift from correction to early uptrend. Beyond that, the resistance cluster at $3,350–$3,435 and the broader cap at $3,396 correspond to the upper boundary of the wide range. Only above those levels does ETH-USD convincingly re-enter a momentum-up environment.
Relative Structure: ETH-USD Is Stable, But Solana Leads The Breakout Race
Against SOL-USD and AVAX-USD, Ethereum looks structurally solid but tactically late. Coinpedia’s comparison shows ETH continuing to respect its rising daily trend support, with higher lows on both four-hour and daily timeframes, but still trapped below near-term resistance with momentum indicators failing to expand. RSI stays neutral-bearish and MACD is close to a bullish crossover inside negative territory, which fits a slowly-building base rather than a ready-to-go breakout. Avalanche shows wider swings, inconsistent higher lows and messy structure, with volatility expansion that can easily turn into fake moves. Solana stands out instead: SOL trades in tight compression right under resistance, with consistent higher lows and sharply contracted volatility, which is textbook pre-breakout structure. RSI is elevated but not overheated and invalidation levels are clean. If Bitcoin resolves higher out of its own consolidation, Solana is best positioned to move first and hardest, while ETH-USD likely follows as a second-wave participant rather than the leader.
Scenarios For ETH-USD: Bearish Extension, Sideways Base Or Staged Recovery
Combining price, on-chain data, flows and macro, ETH-USD sits in a three-way scenario tree. The bearish extension path remains open while ETH trades below $3,075; that path starts with a break of $2,900–$2,880 and $2,762, followed by a slide into $2,700–$2,750 and possibly toward $2,624, with $2,200 and $1,400 reserved for a deeper macro washout. The sideways base-building scenario keeps ETH-USD oscillating between $2,624 and $3,396, clustering around $2,900–$3,000 with low volume, weak on-chain activity and ongoing treasury accumulation such as BitMine’s buying. The staged recovery scenario requires ETH to hold $2,880–$2,900, reclaim $3,000 and $3,075, then push through $3,131 and target $3,250 with visibly stronger spot flows and network usage; only then does the corrective structure genuinely flip into a new upswing.
ETH-USD Stance: Hold With Bearish Short-Term Skew And Accumulation Only Near $2,700
On the numbers provided, ETH-USD is a hold with a bearish short-term tilt and medium-term upside optionality. The price pattern shows repeated failures above $3,000 and about a 12% weekly drop, the trend shows a death cross and price trapped below $3,075 and $3,250, on-chain metrics show MVRV compression and a seven-month low in active addresses, and flows highlight ETF outflows versus aggressive BitMine accumulation toward 3.97 million ETH and a 5% supply target. ETH-USD is not collapsing, but it is not a clean long either. From a positioning standpoint, the rational accumulation band is roughly $2,700–$2,900 for investors willing to stomach the risk of a spike toward $2,200 if macro stress increases. Validation on the upside demands daily closes above $3,075 first, then $3,131 and $3,250 with improving volume and on-chain engagement; until that happens, every rally is a move to fade rather than a breakout to chase.
