Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Bulls Defend $2,900 — $3,600 Target in Sight, Tom Lee Predicts $9,000 by 2026

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Holds $2,948 as Bulls Defend $2,900 — Institutional Demand and ETF Flows Signal Key Turning Point

ETH-USD Stabilizes Below $3,000 as Fed Liquidity and ETF Dynamics Shift the Market

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades near $2,948, holding just above short-term support at $2,900 after multiple failed attempts to clear the critical $3,000 resistance. The market’s indecision reflects the intersection of weakening spot flows, rising ETF accumulation, and diverging whale activity. Despite the neutral oscillators, Ethereum’s structure shows compression within a $2,860–$2,965 intraday triangle — a setup that precedes volatility expansion.

The broader crypto environment has turned more constructive as Federal Reserve rate cut odds jumped to 84%, increasing liquidity expectations across digital assets. ETH has reacted with mild strength, up 11% since November 22, reclaiming the $2,800 level. However, the 20-day EMA near $3,115, the 50-day EMA at $3,481, and the 100-day EMA at $3,649 all remain overhead, confirming that trend reversal requires a breakout above these stacked resistance levels.

ETF and Spot Flow Divergence Defines Market Behavior

Recent ETF data highlights mixed momentum. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 35,725 ETH on November 25, with BlackRock contributing 31,141 ETH. Yet, spot markets recorded $129.2 million in outflows, maintaining a negative pattern that capped rallies. The divergence between ETF accumulation and spot selling has created a tug-of-war environment where institutional bids absorb retail exits without triggering price expansion.

This dynamic keeps ETH confined between $2,900 and $3,000, even as institutional interest returns. Analysts note that if spot outflows begin to stabilize, the ongoing ETF inflow rate of $40–80 million per day could become a catalyst for an eventual breakout.

Whale Accumulation Confirms Long-Term Confidence

On-chain data reveals a significant shift in ownership structure. BitMine Immersion Technologies added 69,822 ETH last week, raising its total holdings to 3.63 million ETH, equal to 3% of total supply, worth about $10.6 billion. The company plans to stake these holdings on its MAVAN network in 2026, removing substantial liquidity from circulation and reinforcing price stability.

Large whale cohorts (10,000–100,000 ETH) have accumulated 440,000 ETH in the last two weeks, while smaller wallets (100–1,000 ETH) have offloaded over 120,000 ETH. This divergence underscores a rotation from retail to institutional dominance, a pattern consistent with accumulation phases before major rallies.

Macro Shift: Fed Liquidity Boost and End of QT Could Trigger Repricing

The Federal Reserve’s expected end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1 adds a macro tailwind for Ethereum (ETH-USD). Historically, the end of QT has preceded altcoin outperformance and liquidity inflows into crypto markets. During the 2020 cycle, Ethereum gained 165% in six months following similar policy changes.

With the U.S. 10-year yield retreating below 4.05% and the Dollar Index (DXY) slipping to 103.1, capital rotation back into risk assets is visible. Analysts from Capriole Investments note that Ethereum’s Apparent Demand — a metric measuring newly active supply versus issuance — hit 90,995 ETH, the highest since September 2024, signaling aggressive accumulation despite short-term bearish sentiment.

Technical Structure: Compression Within Symmetrical Triangle

Ethereum’s intraday price action shows a tightening symmetrical triangle with immediate support at $2,860 and resistance at $2,965. The RSI at 42 reflects neutral-to-weak buying pressure, while the MACD (-222) shows a flattening slope, hinting at momentum recovery.

For bulls, a daily close above $2,965 opens the path to $3,115, while reclaiming the EMA 20 would confirm a momentum shift toward the next key zone at $3,481–$3,650. Conversely, a break below $2,860 risks a slide toward $2,820 and the long-term ascending trendline near $2,750, a support level defended since April.

Derivatives Data and Open Interest Show Cautious Positioning

Open Interest (OI) across Ethereum futures dropped to $16.9 billion, marking a sharp reduction from last week’s $21 billion. The decline in leverage, combined with flat funding rates, indicates that the recovery from $2,500 is spot-driven rather than speculative. Historically, low-leverage rebounds form more durable bases.

Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows $51 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours, confirming mild bullish pressure but not yet a reversal trend. Traders remain hesitant, with long/short ratios at 1.18, showing balanced exposure.

Tom Lee Predicts $2,500 Bottom and $9,000 Upside by January 2026

Prominent strategist Tom Lee described the $2,500 area as Ethereum’s “engineered washout,” projecting a sharp recovery toward $7,000–$9,000 by January 2026. He attributes this to institutional staking, Layer-2 growth, and tokenization cycles entering a “ChatGPT moment” for stablecoins. Lee’s forecast implies an upside potential of 205–210% from current prices.

While aggressive, Lee’s forecast aligns with BitMine’s ongoing ETH accumulation and expanding institutional adoption. His $9,000 target assumes a break above $3,650, confirming structural reversal and returning ETH to late-2021 valuation multiples.

Long-Term Trend: ETH Poised for $3,600 If Support Holds

Technical patterns show a developing V-shaped structure since early November. A successful breakout above $3,115–$3,500 completes the pattern, projecting a measured target of $3,600, roughly 22% upside from current levels.

Cointelegraph data shows that 4.95 million ETH were acquired between $2,800–$2,830, forming a dense cost-basis cluster. This range now acts as critical support. If defended, the base could serve as a launch zone toward $3,600 and later $4,000.

Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook

Sentiment remains cautious but improving. The Fear & Greed Index for crypto rose from 41 to 52, neutral territory. The ETH/BTC pair also signals recovery potential, with relative strength improving as BTC consolidates near $87,900. Analysts expect ETH to outperform BTC once liquidity rotation resumes after QT ends.

Institutional desks have begun positioning for 2026, with Grayscale, BlackRock, and VanEck increasing ETH allocations. The total Ethereum ETF inflows have reached $230.9 million over the past three days, reversing two weeks of outflows.

Strategic View: Reclaiming $3,115 Key to Recovery

For now, Ethereum (ETH-USD) remains trapped in consolidation. The $2,800–$3,000 range defines near-term bias, but macro and structural factors point toward a base-building phase rather than capitulation. Sustained inflows, whale accumulation, and Fed liquidity all align with a medium-term bullish narrative.

A daily close above $3,115 confirms a breakout and opens the path to $3,481–$3,650, while a failure below $2,750 risks deeper retracement toward $2,600.

Verdict: BUY / MODERATELY BULLISH
Ethereum (ETH-USD) is positioned for recovery as macro liquidity improves, whales accumulate, and ETF inflows reemerge. Near-term resistance lies at $3,000–$3,115, while the medium-term upside target is $3,600, with extended potential toward $7,000–$9,000 under the Tom Lee supercycle thesis.

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