Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Climbs Above $3,040; Record Low Exchange Supply Ignite Bullish Momentum

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Holds Above $3,040 as Fusaka Upgrade and Supply Compression Shape Market Momentum

Current Price Action and Market Behavior

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading near $3,030–$3,050, maintaining stability after rebounding from a sharp early-December drop that briefly tested $2,800. The rebound followed renewed risk appetite driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts, lifting ETH back toward $3,200 in intraday sessions. The price remains volatile, but the consistent defense of the $2,950 support zone reflects accumulation by institutional traders and long-term holders. Trading volume remains above the monthly average, signaling market confidence even amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Technical Landscape and Short-Term Structure

ETH has entered a tight consolidation phase between $3,020–$3,050, forming a symmetrical range that often precedes major directional moves. The 4-hour EMA cluster shows buyers regaining control, with the 20-day EMA near $2,964 and the 50-day EMA near $2,957 acting as near-term support. A break above $3,206, the 200-day EMA, would open targets toward $3,360–$3,477, while sustained momentum could push ETH to $3,566. Failure to hold $3,050 could lead to a retest of the $2,800–$2,720 range, though accumulation signals remain dominant.

Impact of the Fusaka Upgrade on Network Dynamics

The Fusaka upgrade, activated on December 3, 2025, has become one of Ethereum’s strongest structural catalysts. It enhances scalability and reduces Layer-2 transaction costs, reinforcing Ethereum’s long-term competitiveness. Post-upgrade data shows that average gas fees have fallen sharply, with blob-space transactions cutting costs by over 35% compared to pre-upgrade averages. This development has boosted activity across Layer-2 networks, including Arbitrum and Optimism, increasing daily active addresses and total locked value. The reduced friction encourages broader institutional participation and supports long-term value creation across the ecosystem.

On-Chain Metrics and Supply Compression

On-chain data confirms a tightening ETH supply structure. Only 8.7% of total circulating ETH is now held on exchanges, the lowest in over five years. Over 40% of the total supply is locked in staking contracts, custody funds, and long-term vaults, signaling reduced selling pressure. Net exchange outflows remain steady, and daily staking inflows exceed 40,000 ETH, underscoring investor preference for yield and network security. This reduced liquid supply supports ETH’s long-term price resilience and builds a foundation for potential breakouts above key resistance levels.

Short-Term Momentum and Price Targets

If ETH maintains its current support zone between $2,950–$3,050, technical projections indicate a likely push toward $3,350–$3,500 in the coming sessions. Analysts view the $3,400 zone as a pivot for short-term bullish continuation. Historical patterns suggest that sustained closes above $3,350 typically trigger multi-week rallies averaging 12% gains, which could lift ETH toward the $3,800–$4,000 range. Spot inflows also support the bullish bias, with $58.1 million in net inflows recorded on December 3, the highest in over a month.

Institutional Flows and Derivative Activity

Ethereum’s derivatives market shows strong institutional positioning. Open interest in futures has climbed to $38.34 billion, indicating rising expectations of volatility and potential expansion in long positions. Spot inflows and whale wallet activity both confirm ongoing accumulation above $3,000. Liquidity data shows elevated bid depth at $2,950–$2,980, limiting downside risk. However, leverage ratios remain elevated, suggesting a risk of liquidations if price momentum falters. Institutional traders remain cautious but lean bullish into the next resistance cluster.

Fundamental Drivers and Ecosystem Growth

The ecosystem’s fundamentals continue to strengthen post-upgrade. Layer-2 adoption is expanding rapidly, and daily transaction volume across rollups has grown by over 27% week-on-week. The combined effect of reduced fees, scalability improvements, and improved validator economics reinforces Ethereum’s lead in the decentralized finance and smart contract sectors. DeFi total value locked (TVL) has surpassed $92 billion, while NFT marketplace activity has also rebounded modestly since late November. These data points reflect confidence in Ethereum’s underlying utility and technical architecture.

Risk Outlook and Key Levels to Monitor

Despite constructive conditions, ETH faces key risks tied to macro policy and liquidity cycles. A delay in Fed rate cuts could pressure risk assets, pulling ETH below $2,950 in a renewed correction. Additionally, low gas revenue from cheaper transactions could marginally affect network burn rates, limiting ETH’s deflationary impact in the near term. Traders should watch $3,206 as the decisive pivot; a clean breakout above this level would confirm bullish momentum toward $3,477 and later $3,834, while a breakdown could invite volatility toward $2,800.

Mid-Term Forecast and Investment View

Ethereum maintains a bullish structure backed by supply scarcity, post-upgrade efficiency, and renewed institutional interest. If momentum continues, ETH could reach $3,500–$3,700 in the short term and potentially $6,000+ by early 2026, aligning with prior cycle extensions. The fundamentals remain intact: network activity is rising, staking supply is tightening, and long-term holders are not distributing.

Verdict: BUY — ETH-USD remains structurally bullish. The consolidation around $3,050 offers a favorable entry zone before potential continuation toward $3,500 and beyond. Sustained adoption, falling gas fees, and institutional accumulation support Ethereum’s position as the dominant Layer-1 asset heading into 2026.

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