Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Climbs Back to $4,128 as Reserves Drain, ETFs Bleed $796M, and DEX Volumes Hit $33.9B

Ethereum Price Forecast – ETH-USD Recovers to $4,128 as Exchange Balances Drop to 9-Year Lows, ETF Outflows Total $796M

Ethereum Price Stabilizes Above $4,128 After September Turbulence

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading at $4,128, regaining ground after a volatile September that dragged the token below the $4,000 psychological mark. Despite a 12% monthly decline, ETH has climbed 3.4% over the last 24 hours and is defending higher-timeframe supports. The rebound underscores a broader battle between institutional outflows, record decentralized exchange volumes, and supply pressures that could dictate whether ETH consolidates or resumes its advance toward $4,950.

Exchange Reserves at Historic Lows Reinforce Bullish Undercurrents

On-chain data shows Ethereum reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to their lowest point since 2016. More than 10% of circulating supply has been withdrawn this year, with flows redirected into staking contracts, cold storage, and non-custodial wallets. This drain reduces tradable supply, echoing prior cycles where ETH rallied sharply after similar liquidity contractions. Analysts highlight that while supply-side signals are bullish, demand must intensify before the next leg higher begins.

ETF Outflows Weigh Heavily With $796 Million Pulled in a Week

The enthusiasm in spot markets has been tempered by institutional redemptions. Spot Ethereum ETFs shed $795.6 million in the week ending September 26, their worst week since launch. Fidelity’s FETH lost $362 million while BlackRock’s ETHA saw $200 million withdrawn. Daily outflows reached $250 million when ETH dropped to $3,980. These redemptions mirror broader crypto fund weakness, as Bitcoin ETFs also saw over $902 million leave in the same week. The structural question is whether upcoming approval for staking-enabled ETFs can reignite inflows and shift sentiment back in Ethereum’s favor.

Key Technical Zones Define Ethereum’s Path

Technically, ETH is caught between support at $3,800–$3,900 and heavy resistance near $4,200–$4,300. The 100-day moving average reinforces the $3,900 region, while resistance extends toward $4,505. Bulls must clear this band decisively to target the $4,600–$4,700 order block and eventually challenge the all-time high of $4,950. Failure could bring ETH back to test $3,515 and even $3,020, where on-chain realized price distribution shows significant buyer interest. 

Decentralized Exchange Volumes Jump 47% to $34 Billion

Ethereum’s network activity paints a far more optimistic picture. Weekly DEX turnover surged 47% to $33.9 billion, with Uniswap up 26% and Maverick Protocol advancing 30%. Layer-2 ecosystems such as Arbitrum and Base also saw double-digit growth. Historically, surges in decentralized volumes have preceded strong ETH rallies — in mid-2021, a 276% DEX volume spike was followed by ETH doubling in price. Rising on-chain demand suggests investor conviction remains intact, even as ETF outflows cloud the institutional picture.

Seasonality Points to October Tailwinds

Seasonal trends bolster the bullish case. Data from CoinGlass shows that October has delivered an average 4.77% monthly gain for ETH. If repeated, that pattern would lift Ethereum closer to $4,300 before month-end. With supply contracting and DEX activity accelerating, traders are watching for a potential Q4 rally that historically sees altcoins outperform Bitcoin.

Institutional and Technical Catalysts Support Long-Term Upside

Despite near-term turbulence, long-term signals remain constructive. A MACD bullish cross on the monthly chart, coupled with Ethereum breaking out of a multi-year downtrend, suggests momentum is turning upward. Spot ETFs have attracted more than $7 billion in inflows YTD, even accounting for recent outflows. Some strategists, including Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, project ETH between $10,000–$12,000 by year-end, driven by adoption, scalability upgrades such as Pectra in Q1 2025, and Ethereum’s neutral settlement role in global finance.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

With ETH back above $4,128, the short-term pivot remains $3,900. A sustained defense of this level keeps Ethereum in Buy-on-dips territory, particularly if $4,200 resistance is broken with conviction. ETF outflows show hesitation from institutions, but structural supply contraction and on-chain activity suggest Ethereum’s long-term trajectory remains higher. Traders should monitor $3,800 as the fail-safe floor and $4,505 as the breakout trigger toward $4,950 and ultimately five-digit targets.

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