Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH/USD Crashes Below $1,900 After Iran Strikes — Down 36% in February

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH/USD Crashes Below $1,900 After Iran Strikes — Down 36% in February, ETF Outflows Hit $1.13 Billion, and the Entire Crypto Market Has Lost Half Its Value Since October

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | TradingNews.com

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading at approximately $1,867 on Saturday morning, down nearly 5% over the past 24 hours, after the United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has been in freefall for the entirety of February — losing 36% of its value in a single month, the worst monthly performance for ETH since the collapse of FTX in November 2022. The broader crypto market tells the same story: total market capitalization has dropped 50% since October, erasing over $1.5 trillion in value. Bitcoin sits at $64,055, down 3%. Solana is at $80.34, off 3%. XRP fell to $1.33. Dogecoin shed 4%. Cardano cratered 6%. This is not a dip — this is a systematic destruction of crypto wealth that has been underway for five consecutive months.

The Iran strikes accelerated what was already a brutal session. On Friday, before the bombs fell, ETH dropped more than 5% from above $2,000 to just above $1,920 as the taker sell volume on perpetual swaps spiked to 105 million ETH across all exchanges — a massive wave of liquidation-driven selling that overwhelmed any residual bid. Then came Saturday's headline: "We're going to annihilate their navy," Trump declared in a Truth Social video, and Ethereum immediately dropped through $1,900 to an intraday low near the $1,867 level. Total crypto liquidations over the past 24 hours hit $81.4 million for ETH alone, with $65.5 million in long positions wiped out — bulls who thought the bottom was in got annihilated alongside the Iranian navy.

February's Carnage — ETH/USD Lost 36% in 28 Days While Gold Gained 11%

The numbers are staggering when placed side by side. Ethereum dropped from approximately $2,950 at the start of February to $1,867 by month's end — a 36% decline. Over the same period, gold surged 11% to $5,230 per ounce, posting its best month since January 2012. The "digital gold" thesis that crypto proponents have pushed for years is not just weakened — it is demolished. Gold does what gold does in geopolitical crisis: it rallies. Crypto does what crypto does: it sells off as a funding asset, a liquidity valve, and a risk-on proxy that gets dumped first when fear spikes.

The divergence is even more pronounced on longer timeframes. ETH reached its all-time high near $4,946 in August 2025. At $1,867, the token has lost 62.3% from that peak — a drawdown that exceeds even the most aggressive bear case scenarios from six months ago. The cycle high from earlier in 2026 was $2,139, and the cycle low prior to this weekend's crash was $1,764.23 from late February. That $1,764 level is now the line in the sand. If it breaks on Monday's reopen, the next meaningful support does not appear until $1,524 — and below that, $1,405.

The ETF Exodus — $3.3 Billion Gone Since October, $1.13 Billion in Five Weeks

U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETFs have been bleeding capital at an alarming rate. Since October, these products have shed approximately $3.3 billion in net outflows, largely driven by hedge fund selling as the basis trade — the arbitrage between spot and futures prices — collapsed. The basis, which at its peak offered annualized returns north of 15%, has compressed to near-zero, removing the primary incentive for institutional participation in ETH ETFs.

Over the past five weeks alone, roughly 563,600 ETH — worth approximately $1.13 billion at current prices — has been withdrawn. The pace tells the story of cascading institutional capitulation: positions that were entered as hedged arbitrage trades are being unwound as unhedged directional bets, and the selling begets more selling as NAV discounts widen and redemption activity forces ETF sponsors to dump physical ETH into an already-thin market.

There was a brief glimmer of hope mid-week. On Wednesday, spot ETH ETFs recorded $157.1 million in net inflows — the largest single-day addition since mid-January. Thursday saw a follow-through of $6.5 million, marking three consecutive days of positive flows for the first time in six weeks. But context matters: $163 million in inflows over three days against $3.3 billion in outflows over five months is not a trend reversal. It is a dead cat bounce in flow data, and Friday's selling likely reversed even that modest improvement.

The Coinbase Premium — U.S. Interest Returns, But Not Enough

One genuinely constructive data point: the Coinbase Premium Index — which measures U.S. sentiment by comparing ETH/USD pricing on Coinbase against ETH/USDT on Binance — flipped positive during the week, reaching its highest level since mid-December. The 7-day moving average of the index is rising, though it remains below its neutral level. Historically, sustained periods of positive Coinbase Premium have preceded meaningful price recoveries, as U.S.-based capital tends to be "smarter money" in crypto markets — more institutional, more patient, and more willing to accumulate during capitulation events.

The problem is that the premium flipping positive happened at $2,000+ before the Iran strikes. At $1,867, the question becomes whether those returning U.S. buyers have the conviction to hold through a geopolitical crisis that has no precedent in crypto's short institutional history. If the premium index holds positive through Monday's session, it would be a genuinely bullish signal. If it flips negative again as panic selling resumes, the brief U.S. re-engagement was nothing more than a bear market rally catching late longs.

Derivatives Market — Open Interest Rises While Funding Rates Flash Confusion

ETH open interest grew by 500,000 tokens during the week, reaching 12.70 million ETH — the highest level of the month. In isolation, rising open interest during a price decline is bearish: it means new short positions are being opened, adding directional pressure to the downside. The 105 million ETH spike in taker sell volume on Friday's perpetual swaps confirms the picture — aggressive market-order selling overwhelmed the bid stack and drove the intraday collapse from $2,000 to $1,920.

Funding rates have been oscillating between positive and negative throughout the week, which signals a market without conviction in either direction. Negative funding means short sellers are paying longs to maintain their positions — a setup that can trigger short squeezes if price reverses sharply. But sustained negative funding in a falling market is simply confirmation of trend: the shorts are in control, and they are willing to pay the cost to stay positioned.

The liquidation data is equally telling. Of the $81.4 million in ETH liquidations over the past 24 hours, $65.5 million — 80.5% — were long positions. The long/short liquidation ratio at that extreme is characteristic of capitulation: the last bulls are being flushed out, and the market is clearing leveraged optimism from the system. Whether that constitutes a bottom depends entirely on whether the Iran situation escalates further and whether Monday's open brings fresh selling or exhaustion.

Technical Structure — ETH/USD Below Every Major Moving Average, RSI at 39, Weekly Stochastic in the Low Teens

The daily chart for ETH/USD is unambiguously bearish. Price sits below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average at $2,045, below the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $2,470, below the 100-day, and below the 200-day. Every single trend-following indicator on the daily timeframe is pointing down. The 20-day EMA has acted as persistent resistance throughout February, rejecting every attempted recovery and confirming the downtrend's maturity.

The daily RSI has eased to approximately 39 after recovering briefly from oversold territory earlier in the week. The Stochastic Oscillator has rolled over from overbought levels, reinforcing the view that the mid-week bounce from $1,764 to $2,110 was corrective — a bear market rally within a dominant downtrend, not the beginning of a recovery.

On the weekly chart, the picture darkens further. The 20-week EMA is rolling over above $2,800, confirming a mature downtrend from the $4,700–$4,946 zone. Weekly RSI hovers near 32, holding below the critical 50 midline and signaling persistent downside momentum rather than a completed oversold washout. The weekly Stochastic remains depressed in the low teens — a reading that indicates virtually zero buying interest on the intermediate timeframe.

Key Levels — $1,741 Support, $2,108 Resistance, and the $1,405 Worst-Case Floor

Immediate resistance: $2,108, where the 20-day EMA converges with horizontal resistance. A daily close above this level would be the first technical signal that the bearish bias is weakening. Above that: $2,389, then $2,746.

Immediate support: $1,741, which held during the late-February low. Below that: $1,524 — a level not tested since the 2023 accumulation zone. Deeper: $1,405, which represents the final major support before sub-$1,000 territory that would imply a full round-trip of the entire 2024–2025 bull market.

The Bollinger Bands frame the near-term range: the upper band sits at approximately $2,104, and the lower band at $1,822–$1,840. A decisive break below the lower Bollinger Band would trigger a volatility expansion to the downside — the kind of momentum-driven collapse that can accelerate to $1,524 within days, particularly in a market where 80% of leveraged positions are being liquidated on the long side.

The Iran Factor — Why Crypto Is Not a Safe Haven and Never Was

President Trump announced Saturday that the U.S. and Israel had commenced "major combat operations" against Iran. The strikes hit targets in Tehran. Iran retaliated with missiles targeting Israel and U.S. military installations. Explosions were reported near Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil export terminal. The Gulf states are on edge. Airspace closures are spreading across the Middle East.

Ethereum dropped immediately. Bitcoin dropped. Every major altcoin dropped. The total crypto market lost $128 billion in minutes, according to CoinGecko. There is nothing ambiguous about this: crypto assets behave as risk-on instruments during geopolitical crisis. They are sold to raise cash, cover margin calls, and reduce portfolio exposure to speculative positions. Gold rallied. Treasuries rallied. Crypto crashed. The "digital gold" and "safe haven" narratives require conditions that do not exist during actual conflict — they require stability, confidence, and excess liquidity, not fear, uncertainty, and forced selling.

Last year's precedent is instructive. Following Israel's June 2025 "Operation Midnight Hammer" strike, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell sharply. Prices dipped again when the U.S. joined operations later that month. Recovery came only after Trump announced a pause in attacks. This time, the conflict appears broader, the retaliation more significant (hits on U.S. bases, not just proxies), and the risk of sustained escalation substantially higher. If the conflict goes on for weeks rather than days — which military analysts are flagging as increasingly likely — crypto markets face a prolonged period of de-risking that could push ETH below $1,500.

DeFi and Network Fundamentals — TVL at $92 Billion, But Relevance Is Fading

DeFi total value locked (TVL) sits at approximately $92 billion according to DefiLlama, down 3.42% in the most recent 24-hour period. Decentralized exchange volume registered $7.44 billion, off 5.26%. The major protocols — Aave at $26.05 billion TVL (-1.52%), Lido at $17.92 billion (-2.54%), SSV Network at $12.4 billion (-1.16%), EigenLayer at $8.62 billion (-2.69%) — are all declining in lockstep with the ETH price.

The DeFi ecosystem remains Ethereum's strongest fundamental argument. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is accelerating, stablecoin regulation through the GENIUS Act (requiring 100% reserves) and Europe's MiCA framework provides regulatory clarity, and DeFi TVL globally exceeds $210 billion when including multi-chain protocols. Ethereum remains the backbone — most stablecoin transactions, most tokenized assets, and most Layer-2 settlement still flows through Ethereum's base layer.

But here is the uncomfortable truth: DeFi fundamentals have not mattered for ETH price action in months. TVL can grow, transaction counts can rise, and fee revenue can increase — and the token still falls 36% in a month because the marginal price setter is not a DeFi user. It is a hedge fund unwinding a basis trade, a retail trader getting liquidated on 10x leverage, or an ETF experiencing net redemptions. The fundamental story is intact; the price story is broken.

Ethereum Upgrades — Glamsterdam, Hegotá, Gas Limit Expansion, and Account Abstraction

The Ethereum development roadmap continues to advance regardless of price action. The Glamsterdam and Hegotá hard forks are in progress, delivering gas limit expansion, expanded blob parameters for Layer-2 rollups, and native account abstraction. These upgrades collectively improve throughput, reduce L2 transaction costs, and enable the kind of seamless user experience that has historically been Ethereum's weakest point relative to competitors like Solana.

Account abstraction in particular — allowing smart contract wallets to replace traditional externally owned accounts — has the potential to fundamentally change how users interact with the Ethereum network. Gas abstraction, session keys, and social recovery all become possible, removing friction that currently drives users toward centralized platforms. The technology matters, but it will not move the price in March. Price will be moved by macro, by flows, and by whether the Iran conflict expands or de-escalates.

Institutional Staking — Bitmine's 4.42 Million ETH Position and the Validator Network

One notable institutional development: Bitmine Immersion Technologies disclosed that it has accumulated over 4.42 million ETH tokens — one of the largest on-chain positions held by a publicly traded company. The firm plans to launch its "Made in America Validator Network" (MAVAN), aiming to generate staking rewards from this massive position using proprietary U.S.-based validation infrastructure.

The Bitmine position represents approximately 3.7% of total ETH open interest and, if staked, would make the company one of the largest validators on the Ethereum network. The strategic rationale mirrors what MicroStrategy did with Bitcoin — convert a technology company's balance sheet into a leveraged bet on a single crypto asset. The risks are identical: share dilution (Bitmine recently amended its charter to increase authorized shares), mark-to-market losses when ETH price declines, and the existential question of whether a publicly traded company should have its corporate fortunes tied entirely to the economics of a single blockchain.

At $1,867 per ETH, Bitmine's 4.42 million token position is worth approximately $8.25 billion. At the August 2025 all-time high of $4,946, the same position was worth $21.86 billion. That is $13.6 billion in unrealized value destruction in six months — a scale of drawdown that makes even the most aggressive crypto-native funds uncomfortable.

USDT Liquidity — BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT Pairs Remain Functional, But Spreads Are Widening

The USDT trading pairs for both Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to provide the liquidity infrastructure that holds the crypto market together during stress events. BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT are the most frequently traded pairs on every major exchange, offering the tightest spreads and deepest order books. During Friday's selloff, these pairs functioned as intended — absorbing billions in selling pressure without market structure failure.

However, the quality of liquidity is deteriorating. Bid-ask spreads on ETH/USDT widened during the Iran headlines, and order book depth thinned as market makers pulled quotes in response to geopolitical uncertainty. A CME outage during a recent silver rally demonstrated how exchange infrastructure disruptions can distort futures prices and spill into spot markets — a risk that is equally applicable to crypto when global events move faster than systems can process. For anyone trading the Sunday night reopen, limit orders are essential. Market orders into a gapped-down open will result in catastrophic fills.

The Week Ahead — ISM Monday, OPEC+ Sunday, Jobs Report March 6

The macro calendar is loaded. OPEC+ meets Sunday at 1100 GMT to discuss production policy in the context of the Iran strikes. If the cartel adds supply to cap oil prices, the inflationary impulse from the conflict is contained, giving the Fed more room to cut — which would eventually be positive for risk assets including ETH. If they hold steady and Brent crude runs toward $80+, inflation expectations rise, rate cut odds fall, and crypto faces another layer of macro headwind.

Monday brings ISM manufacturing data. The Fed's next meeting is March 17–18. Friday, March 6 delivers the February non-farm payrolls report — consensus expects 60,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.3%. A weaker print would strengthen the case for rate cuts and could provide a floor for risk assets. A stronger print delays easing and keeps pressure on ETH.

The next Ethereum ETF flow data will arrive Monday. If outflows accelerate following the Iran strikes, the $1,741 support level will be under immediate threat. If U.S. institutional buyers — the ones behind the Coinbase Premium flip — step in and absorb the selling, there is a credible case for a relief rally back toward $2,000–$2,100. The first 48 hours of March will determine the near-term trajectory.

The Verdict — ETH/USD: Sell the Rallies, Protect Capital, and Wait for $1,500–$1,700 to Re-Enter

Ethereum (ETH/USD) at $1,867 is a sell on rallies toward $2,000–$2,100, with a near-term downside target of $1,741 and a risk case extending to $1,524.

The weight of evidence is overwhelmingly bearish. Price is below every major moving average on both daily and weekly timeframes. RSI at 39 daily and 32 weekly signals persistent downside momentum without reaching the kind of extreme oversold levels that typically mark durable bottoms. The weekly Stochastic in the low teens shows virtually no buying pressure on the intermediate timeframe. ETF outflows of $3.3 billion since October and $1.13 billion in the last five weeks confirm institutional exodus. Taker sell volume hit 105 million ETH on Friday — a liquidation event, not a normal session. Open interest is rising as price falls, meaning new shorts are being added. Funding rates are negative. And now, the United States is in active military conflict with Iran, with no de-escalation in sight.

The DeFi fundamentals are intact. Ethereum remains the dominant smart contract platform. The upgrade roadmap is on track. Institutional staking interest (Bitmine's 4.42 million ETH) confirms long-term conviction from at least some participants. And the Coinbase Premium turning positive mid-week suggests U.S. capital is beginning to engage — but "beginning" is not "committed," and geopolitical crisis tends to test conviction in ways that technical indicators cannot capture.

A realistic recovery scenario requires several conditions to align simultaneously: the Iran conflict must de-escalate or stabilize, Friday's jobs report must come in weak enough to reinforce rate cut expectations, ETF outflows must reverse to sustained inflows, and ETH must reclaim the 20-day EMA at $2,045 on a daily closing basis. Until at least two of those conditions are met, every bounce is a selling opportunity, not a buying opportunity.

For those with long-term conviction in Ethereum's technology and network effects, the $1,500–$1,700 zone represents a historically significant accumulation area — the same range where institutional buying emerged in late 2023 before the 200%+ rally into the 2025 highs. Patience here is not weakness; it is discipline. The right entry at $1,600 with a 12-month horizon targeting $2,500–$3,000 offers 56–87% upside with defined risk. Chasing a bounce at $1,900 in the middle of a geopolitical crisis with a broken technical structure and institutional outflows offers nothing but exposure to the next leg down.

Wait for the dust to settle — literally and figuratively. The bombs are still falling, the ETFs are still bleeding, and the weekly chart says $1,741 is not the floor. It is the next waypoint. Trade accordingly.

That's TradingNEWS