Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Pulls Back After Record $4,960 Highs
ETH-USD Retreats After Testing $5,000 Resistance
Ethereum (ETH-USD) surged to a new all-time high of $4,960 this month, marking an 83% gain in Q3 – its strongest quarterly performance in six years. Yet momentum has faded, and the price has retreated to around $4,433, a decline of more than 10% from peak levels. On daily charts, Ethereum recorded a higher high in price while the RSI created a lower high, flashing a bearish divergence that often signals exhaustion. Short-term weakness was confirmed as ETH slipped below $4,500 support, testing critical demand zones around $4,400–$4,450.
Short-Term Technical Structure Signals Risk
ETH’s price action has been highly reactive to leveraged positions. On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum made a sharp rejection after a liquidity sweep above $4,800, triggering liquidation cascades in futures markets. Spot levels are consolidating near the 0.618–0.702 Fibonacci cluster at $4,400, an area that now serves as a critical battleground. A break below this would expose the $4,070–$3,900 support range, while holding above opens the door for a retest of the $4,800–$5,000 resistance zone. Futures open interest remains heavy at 2.1 million contracts, with shorts and longs stacked on both sides, signaling potential for volatile liquidation-driven swings.
On-Chain Dynamics: Whale Activity and Exchange Flows
Exchange flows reveal the scale of profit-taking. Over 521,000 ETH, worth $2.3 billion, moved to centralized exchanges in a single week, suggesting that large holders were preparing to cash out near the highs. The MVRV ratio has risen to 2.15, meaning average wallets are sitting on unrealized gains of 115%. Historically, such levels have preceded corrections of 15–25%, as seen in March 2024 and December 2020. Despite this, some whales treated the dip as an entry point. A dormant address withdrew 6,334 ETH (~$28 million) from Kraken after four years of inactivity, signaling long-term accumulation. Institutional players also reinforced the bullish case: BitMine expanded its Ethereum treasury by $252 million last week, pushing holdings to 797,704 ETH valued at $3.7 billion.
ETF Flows and Institutional Demand Drive Structural Support
Spot Ethereum ETFs have emerged as a defining factor in this rally. Since August 21, inflows exceeded $1 billion, nearly offsetting $925 million in outflows earlier in the month. These products are fueling Ethereum’s growing dominance, which has risen to 14.98% of the total crypto market, its highest level in years. At the same time, Bitcoin’s share slipped below 58.5%, suggesting capital rotation into Ethereum-led strategies. Institutional participation also supports long-term scarcity: exchange balances dropped to a multi-year low of 18.3 million ETH, tightening liquid supply.
Macro Catalysts: Fed Policy and Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve’s dovish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium provided another leg of support. Fed Chair Powell hinted at rate cuts, fueling a broad rally in risk assets. Ethereum responded with a spike toward $4,885, but failed to hold the breakout. Macro liquidity remains a crucial driver. Analysts warn that continued speculative leverage – particularly record-high Binance ETH perpetual leverage – could destabilize the market if policy expectations shift.
NFT Market Impact from ETH’s Pullback
Ethereum’s price decline has directly impacted NFTs. Collections like Pudgy Penguins fell 17.3%, Bored Ape Yacht Club dropped 14.7%, and Doodles lost 18.9% in floor value over the past week as ETH corrected from highs. The total NFT market cap slid from $9.3 billion on August 13 to $7.7 billion, despite healthy volumes. CryptoPunks, however, remained relatively stable, showing only a 1.35% decline, suggesting that blue-chip NFTs still act as defensive plays during ETH corrections.
Technical Outlook: Ranges and Targets
Immediate support is clustered between $4,350–$4,450. A failure here risks accelerating declines toward $4,000 and possibly the 200-EMA near $4,088, which analysts highlight as a major retest zone. Resistance remains near $4,900–$5,000, with bulls needing a decisive breakout above to re-establish upward momentum. If accumulation resumes and ETFs continue absorbing supply, ETH could target $5,200–$5,500 in Q4. Longer-term Fibonacci extensions project scenarios between $7,500–$11,600, with the most bullish forecasts suggesting cycles extending to $15,650 if momentum mirrors past cycle breakouts.
