Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Holds Above $2,000 After 11% Spike, Eyes $2,250–$2,400

ETH-USD: Aggressive Bounce Above $2,000 Inside A Bearish Structure

ETH-USD Daily Trend: Descending Channel, Capitulation Into $1,700–$1,800

ETH-USD is still trading inside a clear descending channel after rolling over from above $3,000 and flushing into the $1,700–$1,800 demand zone. The last selloff dragged price from the $3,000+ region to the lower boundary of that channel, where the market twice printed violent bounces. The current rebound has already pushed ETH back through $2,000 and briefly over $2,100, but structurally the move sits inside a corrective downtrend rather than a confirmed trend reversal. As long as price holds inside this channel and trades below the upper band plus the $2,300–$2,400 supply cluster, the dominant direction for ETH-USD remains lower-timeframe bearish with countertrend squeezes.

ETH-USD Key Levels: $1,800 Floor, $2,108–$2,150 Ceiling And $2,300–$2,400 Supply

The market has now defined a precise battle map for ETH-USD. On the downside, the $1,750–$1,800 band is the primary demand area, with $1,800 acting as the line that twice triggered sharp mean-reversion and heavy short liquidations. A secondary support shelf sits around $1,902, backed by roughly $2.9 billion in historical demand flows. On the upside, immediate resistance is the $2,108–$2,150 zone, anchored by a recent swing high. A clean break and consolidation above that cap would open the path toward $2,250 and then the more important $2,300–$2,400 resistance cluster, where declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge with prior supply. Only a decisive move through that zone and toward $3,000 would signal that ETH-USD is transitioning from a corrective bounce into a more durable recovery leg.

ETH-USD Short Squeeze And Liquidations: $300M+ Shorts Triggered At $1,800 Support

The latest rebound in ETH-USD is driven by positioning, not just slow spot accumulation. After President Trump’s State of the Union speech, ETH ripped more than 10% in a 24-hour window, reclaiming the $2,000 handle for the first time in roughly ten days. Over that same period, short liquidations in ETH exceeded $300 million, the largest single-day flush since early February, when price also ricocheted off the $1,800 area. That repeat pattern confirms that a deep pocket of resting buy orders and forced short-covering is concentrated around the $1,700–$1,800 band. The move was backed by about $21 billion in trading volume in 24 hours—nearly 9% of circulating market cap—showing this is a genuine repositioning event, not a thin bounce.

ETH-USD Intraday Structure: Wide Range Between $1,957 And $2,132 With Volatile Consolidation

On intraday charts, ETH-USD is oscillating in a high-volatility sideways structure. In one recent session, price traded between $1,957 and $2,132 and then settled near $2,060–$2,070, holding a meaningful fraction of the previous day’s ramp. The 4-hour view shows a sharp recovery from $1,750–$1,800 into the $2,150 resistance shelf, with RSI flipping from a depressed sub-40 regime into overbought territory. That confirms strong short-term momentum but also warns that the move is stretched and vulnerable to pullbacks. As long as ETH holds above $1,902–$2,000, the range favors further tests of $2,108–$2,150. A failure at that ceiling followed by a drop back under $2,000 would bring $1,902 and then $1,800 back into play, with a clear risk of a deeper slide toward $1,600 if that floor finally breaks.

ETH-USD On-Chain Supply: Exchange Balances At Multi-Year Lows

On-chain supply dynamics for ETH-USD lean supportive for the medium term. ETH balances on centralized exchanges have been trending lower for months and now sit near multi-year lows, even after the slide from above $3,000 into the $1,700s. That means an increasing share of supply is locked in self-custody, staking contracts or other long-duration holdings and is not immediately available for spot selling. When structural exchange supply shrinks during a drawdown, it typically signals that larger holders are quietly accumulating and moving coins off exchange, compressing the liquid float and setting up stronger upside torque once demand returns.

ETH-USD MVRV, Losses And Sentiment: Underwater Holders Still Exiting

Positioning data show why ETH-USD is struggling to break free despite being structurally tight on supply. The 30-day MVRV ratio indicates that recent ETH buyers sit on average losses of about 5.5%, making ETH the most underwater major altcoin on this window versus Bitcoin, Cardano, XRP and Chainlink. At the same time, net realized profit/loss has improved but is still negative: realized losses fell by around $366 million to roughly $78 million over 48 hours, but that is still far from a clean reset. Underwater entrants continue to sell into strength instead of averaging down, which means every rally unlocks trapped supply. That dampens momentum and keeps ETH-USD in a choppy recovery regime rather than a smooth trend.

ETH-USD Institutional Flows: ETF Inflows And Bitmine Treasury Accumulation

Flows around ETH-USD show a split between weekly caution and tactical buying. At the aggregate level, digital asset investment products saw about $288 million in weekly outflows, with Ethereum instruments alone losing roughly $36.5 million. In parallel, daily ETF data tell a different story: on one recent day, U.S.-listed spot ETH ETFs took in about $157 million of net inflows, led by Fidelity’s FETH, the strongest day since mid-January. On the equity side, Wall Street is quietly using a treasury proxy. Large institutions such as BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, State Street, Vanguard and others have increased holdings in Bitmine, which controls the largest Ethereum treasury position. Bitmine now holds more than $9 billion in ETH, added another $106 million in a single Monday, and has been buying up to 50,000 ETH per week, accumulating around $370 million in February alone. Mark-to-market, that treasury is down nearly $7 billion from peak, but the accumulation continues, expressing high-conviction, long-horizon exposure to ETH-USD even at current drawdown levels.

ETH-USD Valuation: 60% Below $4,950 High With Divergent Scenarios

From a valuation angle, ETH-USD sits in an aggressive discount zone with highly divergent forward paths. ETH trades around $2,000–$2,100, nearly 60% below the August peak near $4,950. Over the last 30 days, the token is still down roughly 30% despite the recent 10–15% rebound. One major bank framework projects a further 30% decline toward $1,400 over the next few months, then a recovery toward $4,000 by year end—already cut back from earlier $7,500 end-year calls. On the other end, ultra-bullish voices talk about $250,000 per ETH over multiple years on the back of tokenisation, ETF growth and on-chain yield mechanics. Practically, these extremes define the risk band: ETH-USD is deeply discounted versus its own history, institutional capital is slowly adding size, yet credible macro outcomes still include another leg down into the mid-$1,000s before any sustained march back to the highs.

ETH-USD Momentum And Mean Reversion: $2,250, $2,400 And $3,000 As Next Targets

Momentum and mean-reversion signals have shifted in favor of ETH-USD, but the key upside checkpoints remain intact overhead. A divergence between price and the 30-day MVRV ratio had been building while ETH hovered around $1,800, and that divergence has now resolved with price moving higher. Daily RSI has crossed above its own moving average, consistent with a mean-reversion leg after an overshoot rather than the start of another capitulation wave. The next realistic upside objective for the current move is around $2,250—roughly 9% above the $2,060–$2,070 area—and then the broader $2,300–$2,400 supply band. Above that, the 200-day exponential moving average near $3,000 is the natural magnet for any extended relief rally. For that path to stay open, ETH-USD must continue to respect $1,800 on closing basis; a clean break below that demand zone would invalidate the current recovery structure and reopen $1,600 as a logical downside target.

ETH-USD Macro Backdrop: Trump Speech, Risk Appetite And Rates Context

The macro environment is directly feeding into ETH-USD price action. Trump’s State of the Union speech, framed around strong economic performance, coincided with a 15% weekly rally in ETH and a roughly $134 billion increase in overall crypto market capitalization. Ethereum gained more than 8% in one day as risk appetite improved, while Section 122 tariff discussions and trade-war rhetoric reinforced the “non-sovereign asset” narrative that supports both Bitcoin and ETH during policy uncertainty. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.06%—high enough to compress valuations when nerves flare but not at the panic levels that previously crushed crypto. The dollar index around 97.6–97.7 leaves the FX backdrop neutral. Global equities have staged relief moves in Asia, while U.S. futures remain restrained. That combination allows ETH-USD to extend a tactical squeeze without yet justifying a full re-rating toward prior highs.

ETH-USD Trade View: BUY Bias With $1,800 As Line In The Sand

After the capitulation into the mid-$1,700s, the short squeeze through $2,000, the ETF inflows, the treasury accumulation, and the tightening on exchange supply, ETH-USD tilts bullish with heavy volatility. Price hovers around $2,000–$2,100, roughly 60% off the $4,950 peak, while U.S. spot ETFs pull in $157 million in a day and Bitmine builds a $9+ billion ETH treasury and keeps buying into weakness. On-chain metrics show 30-day MVRV near –5.5% and exchange balances at multi-year lows, signalling structural accumulation despite short-term pain for late buyers. Technically, the map is straightforward: constructive as long as $1,902–$2,000 holds, bullish above $2,108–$2,150, with clear upside checkpoints at $2,250, $2,300–$2,400 and then $3,000. A daily close below $1,800 would flip the picture back toward $1,600 and potentially $1,400 if macro risk deteriorates. With current information and levels, the stance on ETH-USD is BUY with $1,800 as the critical risk line and a medium-term upside focus on $2,250 → $2,400 → $3,000.

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