Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Reclaims $4,135 After 20% Surge as Whales and Institutions Buy the Dip

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Surges Back to $4,135 as Whales Accumulate and Institutions Reinforce the Rally

The price of Ethereum (ETH-USD) has mounted a stunning recovery after a brutal liquidation-driven selloff that sent it plunging to $3,400 last week. Within days, the second-largest cryptocurrency rebounded more than 20%, reclaiming the critical $4,100 threshold. The surge was fueled by aggressive whale accumulation, renewed institutional inflows, and an oversold technical setup that has triggered powerful rebounds in previous cycles. After weeks of volatility, the market now sees Ethereum’s ability to defend the $4,000 zone as the key signal defining whether this rebound becomes a full-fledged bull continuation or another short-lived relief rally.

Whale Accumulation and Institutional Inflows Signal Growing Confidence

Large-scale investors have been the backbone of Ethereum’s comeback. Blockchain data from Santiment shows that whale wallets have increased their holdings from 100.28 million ETH to 100.36 million ETH since October 11, an accumulation of roughly 80,000 ETH, equivalent to $330 million at current prices. This steady absorption of supply during market weakness indicates growing conviction among long-term holders. At the same time, BitMine (BMNR)—a leading Ethereum treasury firm—added 128,718 ETH, bringing its total to nearly $2.83 billion in holdings. On-chain reports also revealed coordinated activity from the so-called “Seven Siblings” wallets, which collectively borrowed $50 million in USDC from Aave and deployed part of it to buy Ethereum at around $3,771.

Institutional activity further confirms that the rebound has substance. Grayscale, through its new staking vehicle, reportedly injected hundreds of millions of dollars into the Beacon Chain, deepening its Ethereum exposure. Fundstrat’s managing director Mark Newton anticipates a short-term bottom near $4,200, followed by a rally to $5,500, supported by sustained staking and ETF inflows. This view aligns with Tom Lee’s projection of a $12,000 long-term target, which he argues reflects Ethereum’s leadership in decentralized infrastructure and tokenized assets.

Technical Indicators Show Ethereum Exiting Oversold Territory

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum’s bounce coincided with its RSI (14) plunging below 30 — historically a reliable marker of oversold exhaustion. The price’s violent dip to $3,400 acted as a reset, shaking out leveraged long positions and cleansing the market of speculative excess. This liquidation event, which wiped out billions in open interest across derivatives exchanges, left a cleaner structure for a potential uptrend. The on-balance volume (OBV) and RSI divergences on the daily chart have now aligned positively for the first time since June, confirming that accumulation is translating into real spot demand.

On the 4-hour chart, ETH has reclaimed its previously broken ascending trendline, now serving as near-term support. Price action shows consolidation just below $4,300, a level corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the latest decline. Holding above $4,100 will be decisive—if sustained, Ethereum could aim for the $4,600–$4,700 region, where sellers previously capped upside momentum. The Ichimoku Cloud remains above current price levels, but a breakout through $4,271 could signal the beginning of a broader bullish phase.

Macro Triggers Reinforce Risk Appetite as Trump Eases Tariff Rhetoric

The macro backdrop has amplified Ethereum’s recovery. Following President Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, markets entered a panic-driven selloff. However, his softer tone over the weekend—assuring that the U.S. “wants to help China, not hurt it”—triggered a rapid rebound across risk assets. This reversal, dubbed the “V-shape 2.0,” has reignited appetite for risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies. The easing of trade tensions, combined with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, has weakened the dollar slightly and boosted speculative sentiment in digital assets.

With the U.S. government shutdown extending into its third week, traders now anticipate more dovish monetary policy to cushion growth risks. Such an environment typically favors Ethereum, which benefits from increased liquidity and lower funding costs across DeFi platforms.

On-Chain Data Shows Reset of Leverage and Strong Network Base

Ethereum’s Binance liquidation heatmap reveals a massive flush between $3,400 and $3,600, clearing a large cluster of long positions and restoring market balance. The subsequent lack of dense liquidation zones below current price suggests limited downside pressure in the near term. Conversely, significant liquidity pools exist between $4,800–$5,000 and $5,800–$6,000, marking probable upside targets as shorts unwind.

The Exchange Withdrawal Count, a metric tracking ETH moving off exchanges, remains below its historic peaks, signaling that Ethereum may not have topped in this cycle. Historically, spikes in this metric aligned with cycle highs, yet its current downtrend implies further upside potential. Moreover, institutional inflows totaling $547 million via ETH-based ETFs have offset recent retail outflows, stabilizing the market’s net liquidity base.

DeFi, Staking, and Network Metrics Show Mixed Momentum

While price and institutional flows have turned bullish, on-chain fundamentals present a more balanced picture. Daily active addresses have slipped by 12%, while staking withdrawals on the Beacon Chain surpassed 43,000 ETH—about $178 million—suggesting partial profit-taking. The total value locked (TVL) in Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem has dropped below $60 billion, marking a 9% monthly contraction. Yet, this pullback contrasts with strong NFT stabilization and Layer-2 growth, as protocols like Arbitrum and Base sustain near-record transaction counts.

Ethereum’s current challenge is defending its $4,000 support, reinforced by the 200-day MA at $3,535 and the 50-day MA at $4,257. Below these levels, key demand lies between $3,600–$3,800, an area repeatedly defended by institutional buyers.

Bullish Projections Intensify as Analysts See Higher Targets

Analysts across major research desks are aligning on higher Ethereum forecasts. Benjamin Cowen identifies $5,300 as the minimum target based on its retest of the bull market support band, while trader Muro expects $6,000 by year-end if the $4,000 base holds. Knight, another high-profile investor, projects a climb to $7,000 in 2025, while Galaxy Digital maintains a long-term projection of $15,000, reflecting Ethereum’s dominant position in Layer-1 smart contract adoption.

The meme coin segment built on Ethereum’s network has also reignited, amplifying the bullish narrative. Tokens like Pepe and Floki are benefiting from renewed liquidity, with Pepe expected to hit a $20 billion market cap this year. The rising demand for Pepenode (PEPENODE)—a mine-to-earn ecosystem offering 700% APY staking yields—illustrates how speculative flows tend to expand when Ethereum regains bullish momentum.

Strategic Context: ETH as Macro Hedge and Institutional Asset

Ethereum’s structural evolution into a yield-bearing asset through staking continues to attract traditional finance players. With Grayscale launching a dedicated staking vehicle and BlackRock exploring Ethereum-backed ETFs, the network is positioned as a hybrid between growth equity and digital commodity. As the market’s second-largest blockchain, ETH’s liquidity profile allows for institutional scalability unmatched by other Layer-1 competitors.

Meanwhile, the RSI divergence and the shift in long-term holder behavior suggest a transitional phase: cautious optimism replacing speculative exuberance. The balance between whale accumulation and retail hesitation will likely define near-term price volatility, but the macro setup remains supportive as monetary easing approaches and dollar strength moderates.

Verdict: Ethereum (ETH-USD) Maintains Bullish Bias Above $4,000, Eyes $4,700 and $5,500 in Q4

After digesting the largest liquidation event of 2025, Ethereum (ETH-USD) has re-established control above $4,000, transforming panic into opportunity. Technical indicators, whale activity, and institutional inflows all point to a continued recovery phase. Key resistance sits at $4,300–$4,700, while holding the $3,900–$4,000 base is crucial for maintaining momentum.

With a combination of macro easing, strong on-chain accumulation, and revived investor sentiment, Ethereum retains a Buy bias into Q4 2025, targeting $5,300 in the medium term and potentially $6,000 before year-end if resistance breaks convincingly.

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