Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Slides 3.33% to $3,449, Inflows Spike and ETFs Freeze — Can December Spark a Rebound?

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Price Forecast - ETH-USD drops below $3,500 as market confidence erodes

Ethereum (ETH-USD) extended its slide to $3,449, down 3.33%, as a wave of profit-taking and persistent risk aversion dragged prices back under the $3,500 psychological level. Selling volume spiked following failed attempts to reclaim the $3,700–$3,800 resistance corridor that capped every rebound since early October. The move confirms that bears have regained short-term control of the market, with the daily range now compressed between $3,350 and $3,590. The break below the 200-day EMA ($3,596) triggered additional algorithmic selling. Both the 50-day EMA ($3,888) and 100-day EMA ($3,881) remain overhead barriers, keeping technical momentum bearish. Price action continues to respect the descending trendline drawn from the September highs near $4,250, signaling that every bounce is being sold into by large holders.

Exchange flows reveal mounting short-term pressure

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that net Ethereum inflows to centralized exchanges surged to $282 million over the past 24 hours, marking one of the heaviest single-day deposit events since August. Historically, spikes of this scale coincide with local tops or liquidation waves. The ETH balance on Binance now represents roughly 0.0327 of total circulating supply, its lowest ratio since May, suggesting that while long-term holders continue to withdraw to cold storage, short-term traders are rotating liquidity back onto exchanges to capture volatility. The simultaneous presence of declining spot supply and increasing inflows reflects a divided market—long-term accumulation versus speculative selling. If withdrawals persist and new supply dries up, the current correction could form a mid-term base around $3,350–$3,400, a zone defended twice since the start of November.

Derivatives market shows over-leveraged longs at risk

Open Interest in ETH futures stands near $40.6 billion, only slightly below last week’s $41 billion peak, while long-to-short ratios remain above 2.5:1 on major exchanges. Funding rates stay positive, showing that bullish traders are still paying to maintain positions even as spot prices decline—a pattern that often precedes a forced liquidation flush. Options volumes have dropped more than 23% since mid-October, confirming that hedging activity has thinned. Unless OI begins to unwind organically, any further dip below $3,400 could trigger an accelerated cascade of margin calls toward $3,250–$3,180, where derivative liquidity clusters are dense.

Investor positioning: sentiment turning cautious

Retail and institutional sentiment diverged sharply this week. All nine U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs recorded zero inflows on Monday, halting a three-week stretch of positive demand. Conversely, wallet data indicates that self-custodied holdings continue to expand as whales move ETH off exchanges. This tug-of-war between passive accumulation and fading speculative inflows has kept volatility contained but biased downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped to 41, its weakest reading in nearly a month, confirming that momentum has swung bearish yet remains shy of full oversold territory. A decisive breach below 40 would likely invite short-term technical buyers.

Macro backdrop and the Fusaka upgrade catalyst

Macro conditions compound Ethereum’s struggle. U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after the Senate resolved the government shutdown, boosting the dollar and dampening risk assets. Liquidity metrics across crypto are tightening ahead of the Fusaka network upgrade, scheduled for December 3, which aims to enhance execution efficiency and reduce gas fees. Historically, pre-upgrade periods attract speculative demand, but traders are waiting for confirmation that this event will deliver real throughput gains. At the same time, optimism surrounding Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividends briefly lifted crypto last week, yet the follow-through faded as investors reverted to defensive positioning. The combination of stronger USD sentiment and weak ETF participation leaves Ethereum’s near-term upside capped.

Technical map: key support and resistance levels

Immediate support: $3,350 — prior pivot and November 3 low. Secondary support: $3,180 — liquidity pocket aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Major resistance: $3,700–$3,900 — descending trendline and 50/100-day EMAs. Bullish breakout trigger: daily close above $4,070 could target $4,300–$4,550. Until ETH closes decisively above $3,900, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Long-term fundamentals: supply contraction meets delayed demand

Despite near-term weakness, Ethereum’s structural setup remains constructive. Exchange reserves are at a five-month low, staking participation exceeds 27% of total supply, and network gas fees have compressed to 0.067 gwei, indicating efficiency gains. Active addresses hover near 515 k, consistent with historical averages during consolidation phases. The realized price, around $3,545, is now above spot, meaning the average holder has marginal unrealized losses. Historically, once ETH reclaims the realized price, rallies of 60–80% have followed within three months, provided macro sentiment improves.

Market outlook and positioning

Traders remain polarized. Bulls argue that the shrinking exchange supply and network upgrades lay the groundwork for a breakout toward $4,000–$4,200 once risk appetite returns. Bears counter that the crowded long positioning and absence of ETF inflows leave Ethereum vulnerable to another retest of $3,200 before stabilization. The upcoming Fusaka implementation will likely decide which camp wins. If post-upgrade performance confirms throughput gains and lower gas costs, Ethereum could re-establish leadership in Layer-1 activity.

Final Take — Ethereum (ETH-USD) Verdict

Ethereum’s drop to $3,449 is more a recalibration than a collapse. The structure remains intact above $3,350, but conviction is weak until price closes over $3,900. Long-term holders continue accumulating, yet leverage and short-term traders dominate near-term action. At current levels, Ethereum (ETH-USD) is a Hold leaning to speculative Buy for investors targeting 2026. The downside risk sits near $3,200, but upside potential toward $4,200 within one quarter offers an attractive risk-reward of roughly 1:2 if exchange supply keeps tightening and derivatives excess clears. Ethereum’s fundamentals remain solid — what’s missing now is conviction. The next decisive move will depend on whether the Fusaka upgrade reignites the network’s momentum or the current caution deepens into a longer correction phase.

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