Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Slides to $1,800: Is the Next Stop $1,600 or a Rebound Toward $2,100?

ETH-USD: Compressed Around $1,800 After a Brutal February

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is trading around $1,800–$1,825 after rejection below $2,100 and a clean loss of the $1,928 and $1,900 zones. The move locks in roughly a 38% year-to-date drawdown and about a 25% February loss, making this one of ETH’s worst Februaries of the last decade. That decline comes alongside a stronger dollar, tariff noise and exhausted crypto sentiment, with the Fear & Greed index dropping to 11 before a minor recovery toward the mid-teens. Spot ETF flows confirm stress but also show some deceleration: ETH products saw about $112 million of net outflows last week versus roughly $162 million the week before, still negative but less aggressive. The price–flows–sentiment mix points to a market deep in fear, not yet in a clean reversal phase, but already far from euphoria.

ETH-USD Trend Structure: Descending Channel and Broken High-Timeframe Supports

On the daily chart, ETH-USD trades inside a clear descending channel, currently sitting in the lower half near $1,800–$1,850. The breakdown from the $2,300–$2,400 support block and repeated rejection well below the declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages define a bearish medium-term structure. Daily RSI is pressed near oversold territory, consistent with an extended leg down rather than a completed bottom. The immediate structural pivot sits around the $1,750–$1,800 horizontal demand zone. Holding that band keeps room for a mean-reversion move back toward $2,000–$2,200, while a decisive break opens a direct path toward $1,500–$1,600 and the lower boundary of the broader channel.

Short-Term Tape: ETH-USD Demand at $1,750–$1,850 Versus Risk Toward $1,595

On the 4-hour chart, the former ascending support from the early-February low has already broken, and ETH-USD is consolidating just below that trendline inside the $1,750–$1,850 demand pocket. Intraday RSI has flattened after an oversold print, signalling momentum is weak but no longer accelerating lower. As long as price holds above recent lows around $1,750, the structure allows for a retracement toward $1,900–$1,950, where prior range floor and short-term moving averages converge. Losing the $1,780–$1,750 belt instead exposes $1,700 first and then the deeper $1,595–$1,600 liquidity pocket. That zone aligns with the lower channel region and with several external analyses calling for a potential local low in the $1,600 area if the current shelf fails.

ETH-USD Level Map: $1,800 Retest, $1,928 Pivot and $1,600 “Ultimate” Support

The $1,800 region is a key decision zone for ETH-USD. Price already bounced off this level once, failed to sustain the rebound, and is now retesting it from above. That repeated interaction increases its importance: a strong reaction higher confirms it as a short-term floor; a clean break converts it into resistance and validates a move toward the lower channel band. The tactical map is straightforward. The active cluster is $1,750–$1,850, currently acting as pressured demand. First resistance on a bounce sits at $1,880–$1,900, then at $1,928. Regaining $1,928 re-opens the path toward $2,000–$2,200 and the $2,108 region. A breakdown through $1,750, on the other hand, puts $1,700 and then $1,600–$1,595 in focus, with a risk tail toward $1,500 only if macro stress escalates sharply.

Derivatives: Negative Funding Shows a Short-Heavy ETH-USD Market

Perpetual futures data show a clearly defensive stance around ETH-USD. Funding rates across major exchanges flipped sharply negative during the February cascade and remain below zero, which means short positions are paying longs to stay open. Earlier in the move, funding was mostly positive during the uptrend, reflecting leveraged long bias. The transition into persistent negative funding after the break of $1,900 signals that the market is now positioned heavily on the downside. As long as spot demand stays weak, this configuration amplifies pressure lower and can produce further legs down. Combined with oversold technicals, it also builds the conditions for a violent short squeeze if price stabilises around $1,750–$1,800 and any real spot bids come in. A hold of this band followed by a push back through $1,900–$1,950 while funding is still negative would be the classic setup for forced short covering.

On-Chain HODL Waves: Mid-Term Cohorts Growing, Forced Selling Contained

On-chain HODL wave data highlight a specific positioning pattern in ETH. Supply in the 3- to 6-month band has risen by about 5% over the past week, showing that a portion of short-term holders have rolled into mid-term behaviour rather than capitulating. These wallets are sitting through the drawdown instead of exiting, which reduces immediate forced selling and helps stabilise price. At the same time, some long-term cohorts used recent strength and headlines as liquidity to distribute, particularly around the last attempt to break out above $2,100 and around large public buys. Underwater addresses are generally refusing to realise losses, which suppresses realised-loss spikes but also depresses overall volumes. The combined picture is a “reluctant holder” market: more coins are locked in mid-term hands, selective long-term distribution has already happened, and fresh capital is cautious, waiting for clearer confirmation before scaling in.

MVRV and Valuation: ETH-USD Approaching Classic Local-Bottom Zones

Valuation metrics now point toward late-stage downside rather than early-stage weakness for ETH-USD. The 30-day MVRV ratio has started to turn higher from deeply negative territory around the $1,800 area. Historically, similar behaviour marked local bottoming zones, including around April 2025 when ETH rebounded off roughly $1,400. A rising short-term MVRV here implies that new capital stepped in around the recent dip, lifting the average cost basis of coins moved in the last month. In practical terms, buyers are accumulating in the $1,750–$1,850 range and holding, expecting that the market is over-penalising ETH at these levels. That shift usually precedes at least a recovery leg back toward key resistance zones such as $1,928 and then $2,200 once the immediate selling exhaustion completes.

Staking Dynamics: Reduced Liquid Supply and Potential Future Supply Shock

Staking metrics reinforce the constructive medium-term setup for ETH-USD. The realised value of ETH locked in the 2.0 staking contract has been trending down while the MVRV of staked coins moves toward levels seen around prior cycle lows. That pattern shows that new buyers are not just holding ETH, they are depositing it into staking contracts and effectively removing it from liquid supply. The direct impact is simple: fewer coins remain available on exchanges for immediate sale. When combined with compressed prices and already-pessimistic sentiment, this configuration sets the stage for a supply shock once demand stabilises or turns up. The effect does not guarantee an instant reversal, but it tilts medium-term risk–reward in favour of ETH-USD once the technical structure confirms a base.

ETF Flows and Fear Indicators: Deep Pessimism, Slowing Outflows

Fund flows and sentiment indicators around ETH-USD confirm that the market has moved into a stressed but late-phase posture. ETH ETFs saw around $112 million in net outflows last week versus roughly $162 million the week before. Outflows remain negative, but the pace is slowing. That pattern usually emerges when early sellers have already exited and marginal holders are tired but not yet willing to add. At the same time, the Fear & Greed index collapsing toward 11 before recovering slightly signals a shift into extreme fear territory, which historically aligns more often with local lows than with tops. Viewed together with price, MVRV and HODL waves, the flows and sentiment data argue that heavy pessimism is already in the price, even if the exact low has not been printed yet.

Large Flows: BitMine’s $93M ETH Buy and the Market’s Reaction

The recent announcement that BitMine acquired 51,162 ETH worth over $93 million is a clear test of how the market digests positive headlines at this stage. Under more bullish conditions, a purchase of that magnitude would usually trigger a sharp upward reaction. This time, the impact on ETH-USD was limited: price briefly stabilised but did not reverse the downtrend. On-chain data suggest that some long-horizon wallets used that event as an opportunity to reduce risk, selling into the liquidity rather than joining the accumulation wave. That behaviour underscores that macro stress and structural worries still dominate trading decisions. Even so, the fact that balance sheet capital is accumulating ETH around $1,800 builds a base of slower-moving supply that will matter once overall risk appetite improves.

Macro Context: Tariff Shock, Dollar Strength and the “Crypto Winter” Narrative

The current leg in ETH-USD has been amplified by macro forces. A 15% tariff threat, trade-war rhetoric and the reshaping of the Federal Reserve leadership have shaken rate expectations and kept the dollar firm. A stronger dollar and persistent uncertainty around policy typically weigh on crypto assets, both through an FX channel and through a broad de-risking impulse. February, which historically tends to be a supportive month for ETH, turned into one of the worst in a decade as these shocks collided with already-fragile sentiment. The narrative has shifted back toward “crypto winter” language, which is exactly the type of tone that appears in late-stage bear phases rather than at the start of new bullish cycles. For ETH-USD, macro conditions still cap the speed of any recovery, but they also help clear out weak hands and compress positioning ahead of the next favourable regime.

Liquidity and Order Books: ETH-USD Demand and Supply Zones in Focus

Order-book and liquidity heatmaps refine the level framework around ETH-USD. A significant demand zone previously sat between $1,880 and $1,900, where large resting bids absorbed selling. ETH has now slipped below that band, turning it into potential supply. Traders who bought there are underwater; if they choose to cut exposure on a retest, that band can act as a strong cap and accelerate downside with each rejection. Below spot, firm liquidity clusters exist around $1,750 and again near $1,600. The first is packed with tactical bids and stop orders, making it highly reactive. The second is aligned with medium-horizon capital looking to scale into ETH at deeper discounts that match prior local bottoms and on-chain valuation levels. This structure means that a break of $1,750 will likely move price quickly to test the $1,600 zone, where more durable demand is expected.

Scenario Analysis for ETH-USD: Base, Flush or Sideways Grind

The structure around ETH-USD now splits into three realistic paths. In a base-building scenario, ETH holds the $1,750–$1,800 shelf, pushes back above $1,880–$1,900 and then takes out $1,928. Negative funding normalises, ETF outflows slow further, and HODL bands continue to thicken. That path opens the door to a move toward $2,000–$2,200 and the $2,108 resistance cluster, framing February as the capitulation low of this cycle leg. In a flush scenario, price loses $1,780 and $1,750 decisively, liquidity at $1,700 and $1,600 is tested, and ETH-USD explores the $1,595–$1,600 zone, with a low-probability tail toward $1,500 under heavy macro stress. On-chain accumulation, staking withdrawal of supply and extreme sentiment would then be fully aligned with a durable local bottom. The grind scenario sits in between: ETH oscillates between roughly $1,750 and $1,950, digesting macro headlines and rebuilding structure without dramatic spikes, frustrating directional trades but steadily improving the medium-term setup.

ETH-USD Stance: HOLD Bias, Bearish Near Term, Accumulation Favoured Below $1,750

Taking price action, structure, derivatives, on-chain metrics, flows and macro together, the stance on ETH-USD here is clear. Around $1,800 after a 38% YTD drawdown and a 25% monthly hit, with oversold momentum, negative funding, slowing ETF outflows, rising short-term MVRV, growing 3- to 6-month HODL bands and active staking, ETH-USD justifies a HOLD view with a tactical bearish bias and a defined accumulation zone in the $1,600–$1,750 range. Short-term, as long as ETH remains trapped below $1,880–$1,900 and especially under $1,928, downside probes toward $1,750 and potentially $1,600 remain likely. Medium-term, the closer ETH-USD trades to $1,600, the more attractive the asymmetry becomes, given supply dynamics and positioning. A sustained reclaim of $1,928 and then $2,000–$2,108 would flip the profile from defensive HOLD into constructive bullish territory. Until that happens, the market is pricing late-phase pain rather than early-phase exuberance, and ETH-USD should be treated accordingly.

That's TradingNEWS