Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Whales Load $350M Around $2,950 as Market Targets $2,500 or $4,400

ETH-USD price: stuck below $3,000 after a $4,980 peak

Ethereum ETH-USD trades around $2,950–$2,960, locked under the psychological $3,000 barrier. From the August high near $4,953–$4,980, ETH is down roughly 40–41%, after already flushing below $1,500 in April. Around 40%+ of addresses are sitting on unrealized losses, which explains why spot demand is hesitant and every bounce above $3,000 gets sold into instead of extended.

ETF flows: from strong bid to two straight months of outflows

Spot ETH ETFs were a major bullish driver earlier in 2025, but the last stretch has flipped the script. Over the most recent three trading sessions, ETH funds saw about $38M, $52M and $95M in net redemptions, adding up to roughly $185M pulled in three days. On a weekly view, that is about $102M out in the latest week, after $643M already left the previous week, giving you two consecutive months of net outflows. That means structural sellers on every uptick, which is why ETH-USD sits under $3,000 even while the broader crypto complex holds up better.

Network revenue and DEX activity: record usage, weak monetization

Protocol revenue has fallen far faster than price. Over the last 30 days the Ethereum base layer captured only about $11.1M in fees, a drop of roughly 57% versus the same prior period. At the same time, DEX activity has cooled sharply. December DEX volume is around $44B, down four months in a row and sitting at the lowest level since October 2024, after peaking above $126B in August. That is about a 65% collapse in on-chain trading volume from the local high, which directly weakens the “fee asset” argument for ETH-USD at current levels.

Pectra and Fusaka: 2025 upgrades push throughput while price lags

On the engineering side, 2025 was important. The Pectra upgrade in early May raised validator stake limits, improved account abstraction and boosted protocol efficiency and scalability. In early December, Fusaka went live with additional scaling and data-efficiency enhancements focused on rollups and bandwidth. The result is visible in raw usage: by December 24, Ethereum hit a weekly average above 1.73M transactions, the highest reading ever, driven by stablecoins, DeFi, and Layer-2 ecosystems. But price only printed a marginal new all-time high at $4,953, about $75 above the 2021 peak at $4,878, before dropping under $3,000. That disconnect between network progress and token performance is precisely what is eroding confidence among long-time ETH holders.

Staking and L2 structure: stronger economics, higher centralization risk

Larger maximum validator stakes after Pectra mean more capital controlled by a smaller set of actors. Staking is increasingly dominated by large pools and institutions, which tightens economic security but pushes the system toward centralization risk. At the same time, real user experience is shifting to Layer-2 chains, so the mainnet is effectively the settlement and security hub instead of the primary user surface. For ETH-USD, that means the investment case is now “base layer settlement plus RWA and stablecoin backbone” rather than a pure play on high-fee DeFi cycles.

RWA and stablecoins: structural floor under the ETH-USD thesis

Tokenized real-world assets exploded from about $5.6B to over $18.9B in 2025, and Ethereum hosts more than $12B of that stack, far ahead of Solana and BNB Chain. On top of that, Ethereum secures roughly $170B in stablecoins, anchoring a huge part of on-chain dollar liquidity. Big finance is already wiring into this architecture, with major market infrastructure players moving US Treasuries and similar instruments onto Ethereum-aligned rails. This is the foundation behind aggressive Wall Street calls for $7,000–$9,000 ETH in early 2026: if that RWA and stablecoin base continues to grow, the market can justify a much higher terminal multiple for ETH-USD than today’s sub-$3,000 price implies.

Whales vs. retail: $350M of accumulation against a cold Money Flow Index

On-chain data shows a split market. Since December 26, large addresses have added about 0.12M ETH, worth roughly $350M, to long-term holdings. One player, BitMine Immersion Technologies, bought around 103,000 ETH, lifting its staked position to roughly 257,600 ETH or about $750M, placing it among the bigger institutional holders inside a universe that controls more than 4M ETH. In contrast, the Money Flow Index (MFI) for ETH-USD has refused to confirm recent price bounces. Between December 18 and 24, price drifted higher while MFI made a lower low, signaling that smaller traders simply are not providing real spot demand. Analysts flag that MFI needs to push above 37 to confirm that retail is finally stepping in. Until then, ETH-USD is effectively being propped up by whales and stakers rather than broad participation.

ETH derivatives: $6.74T futures volume loads the spring

Leverage on ETH-USD is extreme. Over 2025, ETH futures volume on one major venue alone reached about $6.74T, roughly double last year’s figure. That derivatives tower means any break of key levels will not be clean. A convincing move above resistance can trigger forced buying from short liquidations, creating a sharp vertical move. A clean break of support will do the opposite, forcing long liquidations and accelerating a flush lower. From a risk perspective, you are not just trading spot at $2,950; you are trading against an over-levered derivatives stack that can amplify both rallies and crashes.

Bearish structure: death cross, bearish flag and support at $2,615–$2,620

Technically, the daily chart is still hostile to the bulls. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs crossed bearishly on November 23, forming a clear death cross, with price staying under both moving averages since then. From the August top near $4,945–$4,980, ETH has carved a sharp drop followed by an upward-sloping consolidation channel that already broke to the downside, a classical bearish flag continuation pattern. Analysts also see a developing head-and-shoulders top, a bearish pennant under the Supertrend line, and price trading below the 50% Fibonacci retracement, below the Ichimoku cloud, and under the Strong, Pivot and Reverse Murrey Math levels. All of that points to the same risk path: if ETH-USD cannot reclaim $3,000–$3,050 quickly, the probability of a move down to the $2,615–$2,620 band, and then the $2,500 psychological zone, stays high.

Bullish counter-signal: RSI divergence and an inverse head-and-shoulders setup

The bullish camp is not empty. Between November 4 and December 25, ETH-USD printed a lower low while the RSI carved a higher low, a clean bullish divergence that usually indicates weakening selling pressure beneath the surface. At the same time, some technicians map a potential inverse head-and-shoulders base. In that view, the first key level to reclaim is around $3,050. Above that, the neckline sits near $3,390. If ETH breaks and sustains trade above $3,390, the measured move of that pattern points to an upside target around $4,400, roughly +49% from $2,950 and back into the upper part of the 2025 range, though still shy of the $4,953 high. For this positive scenario to survive, price must hold above about $2,800 and absolutely defend the $2,620–$2,615 band. A clean break below that region would invalidate the pattern and reopen the path to $2,500.

Macro positioning: Ethereum underperforms while hard assets and BTC run

While ETH-USD sits about 41% below its August high, BTC-USD trades much closer to its own peak, and hard assets like silver are printing new records, with silver futures ripping through the $70–$72 resistance band and spot silver trading in the high-$70s to $80 area. Macro capital has treated Bitcoin as the primary “digital collateral” while viewing Ethereum more as a leveraged technology and yield asset. Crypto derivatives volume across the board has reached around $85.7T this year, proving that speculators are fully engaged, but the capital rotation into ETH has not matched its protocol upgrades and RWA dominance. That divergence is exactly why the “ETH is losing leadership” narrative is growing stronger into year-end.

Key ETH-USD levels: $2,500 risk vs. $4,400 breakout vs. $7,000–$9,000 long-term

The current structure compresses around a few critical zones. Resistance stands first at $3,000–$3,050, then at the neckline near $3,390. Unlocking that level exposes $4,400 as the next clear upside objective based on the inverse head-and-shoulders projection. On the downside, the first line of defense is $2,800. The main structural support sits at $2,620–$2,615. A sustained break there puts $2,500 in play, which aligns with a major Murrey Math support and a strong psychological round number. Long-term, the RWA base above $18.9B, more than $12B of that on Ethereum, around $170B in stablecoins and a large tokenization pipeline are what justify strategic calls for $7,000–$9,000 ETH in early 2026, but those targets do not eliminate the probability of a shakeout toward $2,500 in the near term.

ETH-USD decision: Buy, Hold or Sell at $2,950

Putting all of this together, the picture is clear. At roughly $2,950, ETH-USD is supported by whale accumulation of around $350M, a massive RWA and stablecoin base, record transaction throughput, and a long-term institutional narrative aiming at $7,000–$9,000. Against that, you have two straight months of ETF outflows, a 57% drop in fee revenue, DEX volume down from $126B to $44B, a death cross, a broken bearish flag, and fragile support clustered between $2,800 and $2,620–$2,615 with downside risk to $2,500. For a professional, data-driven stance: at current levels, ETH-USD is a Buy for aggressive traders and investors who are willing to tolerate a fast drawdown toward $2,500, and a Hold—not a Sell—for more conservative players who do not want that volatility but still accept the $4,400 and $7,000–$9,000 upside path into 2026. If $2,500 fails and stays broken, the market is telling you the whale accumulation was early, and at that point the thesis must be re-evaluated from scratch.

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