Ethereum Price Nears All-Time High on Record ETF Inflows and Supply Crunch

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Closes in on Record High as Institutional Demand and Supply Squeeze Align

Ethereum is trading around $4,750–$4,775, less than 3% from its November 2021 all-time high of $4,865, after a month-long rally of roughly 60% and a two-week surge of nearly 40%. The second-largest cryptocurrency has outpaced Bitcoin’s recent gains — ETH is up 126% from its June low of $1,573, compared with BTC’s 21% — as capital rotation accelerates toward altcoins. The Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 59%, indicating sustained inflows into ETH and other large-cap alternatives. Exchange reserves have dropped from over 28 million ETH in early 2022 to just 18.6 million, a two-year decline that is tightening tradable supply. Over the past 30 days alone, net exchange outflows have averaged 40,000 ETH per day, totaling more than 1.2 million ETH moved into cold storage or staking, a pattern that historically precedes upward price acceleration.

Spot ETF Inflows Drive Structural Buying Pressure

Spot ETH ETFs have become a major force in the current rally. On August 11th, they absorbed $1 billion in inflows — the largest single-day buying since launch — followed by $729 million on August 13th. In the last seven trading days, net inflows exceeded $3 billion, lifting total ETF assets under management to $23 billion, or about 4.7% of Ethereum’s total market cap. Cumulatively since mid-May, Ethereum investment products have attracted over $8 billion. This persistent accumulation is not limited to ETFs; corporate treasuries have built positions exceeding 3.6 million ETH, worth nearly $17 billion, with BitMine Immersion Technologies holding 1.2 million ETH valued at $5.5 billion. These institutional positions remove supply from liquid markets, amplifying price sensitivity to incremental buying.

Technical Structure Signals Possible Breakout to $5,000 and Beyond

ETH has traded in a steep ascending channel since rebounding from the $2,100 region in June, with successive resistance levels flipping to support. On the daily chart, $4,000 is now an established floor, reinforced by a bullish crossover between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. In the 4-hour timeframe, price action remains in overbought territory with RSI near 78, and candle ranges have begun to tighten, suggesting consolidation before another push higher. Immediate resistance sits at the $4,800–$4,891 zone; clearing this would put the $5,000 psychological level within reach. Fibonacci extension levels from the $2,100 low project potential intermediate targets at $5,417 and $7,500. CoinDCX forecasts $5,500–$6,000 by late August if $4,800 is breached, while CoinCodex projects $5,240 by mid-September.

Macro Tailwinds and Regulatory Catalysts Enhance the Bull Case

Macro conditions remain supportive: U.S. inflation has moderated, equity indices hover near record highs, and markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in September. Regulatory clarity is improving as the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin provisions and the SEC’s Project Crypto initiative aim to integrate blockchain infrastructure into mainstream finance. Ethereum’s dominance in key on-chain sectors adds to its fundamental strength — it controls 55% of the $25 billion real-world asset tokenization market and the same share of the global stablecoin market. These segments directly contribute to Ethereum’s transaction fee revenue, which institutional buyers see as a quasi-dividend stream in the absence of equity-like cash flows.

Historical Risk Markers Point to Volatility Ahead

Despite bullish momentum, several indicators warn of potential short-term turbulence. Net Taker Volume on derivatives markets is negative at -$464 million, showing sellers are still active into strength. ETH futures open interest has hit an all-time high of $35.5 billion, creating leverage risk that could magnify any downside move. The ETH futures bubble map shows red-dominated volumes over the past month — a sign of overheated speculative activity that has preceded sharp corrections in past cycles. Profit-taking from stakers is also notable: the validator exit queue exceeds 700,000 ETH (over $3 billion) with withdrawal waits surpassing 12 days, primarily driven by large stakers monetizing gains.

Price Scenarios Through Year-End and Beyond

In the near term, holding above $4,350–$4,164 will be key to maintaining the uptrend; losing this zone risks a pullback toward $4,000. A decisive break above $4,891 could trigger a fast move to $5,000 and potentially $5,417, with $7,500 as a plausible Q4 target if ETF flows and corporate accumulation remain strong. Standard Chartered’s upgraded forecast calls for $7,500 by year-end, Fundstrat sees $12,000–$15,000, and some long-range models stretch to $25,000–$33,000 by 2028–2050. These bullish cases rest on sustained institutional participation, layer-1 scaling upgrades, and continued dominance in tokenization and stablecoins.

Verdict: Buy

At roughly $4,770, ETH-USD is trading within striking distance of its all-time high yet still offers a favorable asymmetry for long-term investors. The convergence of record ETF inflows, corporate balance sheet adoption, and a multi-year supply squeeze creates structural support rarely seen at this stage of a cycle. While overbought readings and elevated leverage raise the probability of short-term pullbacks, the depth of institutional commitment and Ethereum’s entrenched network effects argue for higher highs into year-end. A sustained breakout above $4,900 could open a path toward $5,500 in the coming weeks and $7,500 or more over the next 4–6 months. For portfolios positioned to withstand volatility, current levels present a compelling buy, with upside potential far outweighing the near-term risks.

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