Ethereum Rejected at $2,800 as Bulls Lose Momentum

Ethereum (ETH-USD) Pressured Below $2,800 as Liquidations Shake Sentiment

Ethereum (ETH-USD) is currently trading at $2,779.51, up 0.35% on the day but still locked under the key psychological barrier at $2,800. Price action has remained volatile, peaking earlier at $2,789.75 before retreating into a tight consolidation zone. The inability to sustain a breakout above $2,800 comes after a sharp 6% intraday spike the day prior, which triggered over $500 million in crypto liquidations, primarily impacting short positions. That short squeeze has now lost momentum, and the bulls are grappling with stiff resistance and thinning volume near the upper boundary.

Heavy Liquidation Fuels Brief Rally But Fails to Sustain Momentum Above $2,800

The recent spike was fueled by mass short covering, not organic buying. According to Bitget and CoinGlass data, Ethereum shorts were hit by cascading stop-outs during the move to $2,800, which caused sudden upside volatility. But open interest quickly faded after liquidation volumes surpassed $500 million, and funding rates normalized. This suggests that the rally was driven more by forced liquidations than a conviction-based bullish trend, explaining why ETH failed to push past $2,800 resistance or reclaim $2,850–$2,900 swing highs.

Technical Rejection at Trendline Keeps ETH in Neutral-Bearish Channel

Ethereum continues to trade below its descending trendline drawn from the June highs, with multiple rejection wicks near the $2,800–$2,820 region. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is hovering around 49, showing indecision. Ethereum remains beneath the 50-day moving average near $2,798, and unless bulls clear that zone, momentum will favor sideways or even downward movement. Support zones are seen at $2,744, then deeper at $2,700 — the latter corresponding with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the June rally.

On-Chain Flows Show Whale Activity Stagnating Near Local Highs

While retail activity spiked during the liquidation-driven rally, whale addresses holding over 10,000 ETH have not added meaningfully in the past 72 hours. According to Glassnode data, net flows onto exchanges turned slightly positive — typically a bearish short-term signal. Inflows exceeded outflows by over 18,000 ETH yesterday, reflecting traders potentially preparing to de-risk near resistance. This cooling of whale accumulation confirms the price stall below $2,800, and it raises red flags about the sustainability of the bounce.

ETF Catalyst Loses Steam as SEC Decision Delayed Again

Optimism around a U.S.-based spot Ethereum ETF was one of the core drivers of the mid-June rally. But with the SEC pushing back key decision timelines into Q3, speculative inflows have dried up. Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) continues to trade at a discount near 6.1% to NAV, signaling weak institutional demand. Until regulatory clarity returns, Ethereum lacks a macro catalyst to re-ignite institutional flow — especially with Bitcoin ETF flows also stalling last week. ETH remains highly reactive to macro shifts, and without ETF momentum, there is little fresh fuel above $2,800.

Macro Picture Still Clouded by U.S. Policy, Risk Appetite, and Dollar Strength

Broader risk conditions remain murky. While Ethereum has benefited from periods of dollar weakness and dovish Fed signals, the latest U.S. jobs data has reinforced confidence in labor market resilience, boosting the U.S. dollar. A stronger greenback tends to weigh on crypto broadly. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed back toward 97.40, applying downward pressure on ETH/USD pairs. Meanwhile, real yields remain elevated, reducing the appeal of non-yielding crypto assets. Unless the Fed signals a near-term rate cut — which is increasingly unlikely post-labor data — macro headwinds may persist.

ETH Derivatives Reset After Wipeout, But No Bullish Structure Yet

Open interest in ETH futures and options markets has reset significantly after the July 9 liquidation. Binance and CME ETH futures show a 12% drop in aggregate open interest, and implied volatility has contracted to 38.1%, its lowest since mid-June. This signals a risk-off attitude among leveraged traders. Until ETH reclaims the $2,820–$2,850 region on strong volume and clears key Fibonacci levels, there is no technical validation for bullish structure resumption. Volatility compression near $2,775 likely precedes a sharp move — but direction remains unclear without a fresh macro jolt.

Verdict: Hold — Ethereum Faces Exhaustion Without Fresh Catalysts

Ethereum’s price rebound to $2,800 was fueled by forced short liquidation, not institutional confidence or broad accumulation. On-chain data reveals neutral to bearish positioning, ETF delays weaken upside triggers, and technical charts confirm rejection near resistance. With macro headwinds intact and volatility compressing, ETH-USD is rated a Hold — neutral until a breakout above $2,850 confirms bullish continuation or a breakdown below $2,744 reopens the path toward $2,600–$2,660. Bulls need volume and catalysts. Until then, Ethereum sits in no man’s land.

That's TradingNEWS