Ethereum Price Forecast: Will ETH-USD Hold $1,900 or Slide Toward $1,400?

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – deep drawdown, ETF stress and a battle around $1,900–$2,000

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around the $1,900–$2,050 band after an aggressive reset: roughly 36% down over the last 30 days and about 60% below October levels. The market cap has slipped to roughly $250 billion. The failed attempt to hold above $3,000 flipped the chart into a clean downtrend, and every bounce into the $2,200–$2,450 area has met heavy selling. Short term, the entire debate is focused on whether the $1,890–$1,900 floor holds or whether the market forces a full retest of deeper supports near $1,740, $1,600 and even the $1,404–$1,400 zone flagged by institutional research desks.

ETH spot, 36% monthly crash and key support–resistance levels

The current structure is defined by three price clusters. First, the upper failed zone around $2,200 and $2,450, where previous rallies were sold aggressively and where sellers now feel comfortable leaning in. Second, the active battlefield around $1,900–$2,010, with prints such as $1,920, $1,955, $1,990.20 and $2,000 all referenced in recent coverage. Third, the downside ladder: $1,890 as immediate support, then $1,740–$1,741 as the next technical shelf, followed by $1,600–$1,524 and finally the $1,404–$1,400 area highlighted by Standard Chartered as a potential capitulation low. A break and daily close below $1,890 would confirm continuation of the downtrend and put $1,740 and then $1,524–$1,400 in play; a sustained move above $2,010–$2,140 would be the first sign that bears are losing control.

Ethereum ETF investors carry about $5.15B in unrealized losses

US spot Ethereum ETFs are under direct pressure from this drawdown. With an estimated average entry price near $3,500, ETF holders now sit on roughly $5.15 billion in unrealized losses while spot trades below $2,000. Net inflows have cooled from around $15 billion to just under $12 billion, meaning about $3 billion has already leaked out of the complex, but most capital remains trapped. A recent day saw $129.1 million of net outflows and around $67 million pulled from a single large ETF. The key point is that the majority of holders are heavily underwater, with little evidence of full-scale capitulation yet. That overhang caps every attempt to build a sustainable rally because any push back toward $2,300–$2,500 will tempt ETF buyers to exit closer to break-even.

All ETH holders trade below cost basis as funding turns negative

The stress is not limited to ETFs. On-chain cost basis estimates show that the average spot holder is also underwater, with the typical entry around $2,300 while price trades in the $1,900–$2,000 region. Derivatives confirm a bearish skew: funding rates have been negative for several sessions, signaling that traders are willing to pay to stay short. Over a 24-hour window, around $59.7 million in ETH positions were liquidated, with $35.3 million wiped out on the long side. That mix — longs being liquidated in a downtrend while shorts collect funding — matches a classic bear-phase structure where rallies are sold rather than chased.

Standard Chartered maps a “final capitulation” toward $1,400

Standard Chartered’s crypto research desk sees this phase as a final shakeout rather than the start of a multi-year collapse. Their scenario points to a possible slide toward $1,400 over the coming months before a recovery toward roughly $4,000 by the end of 2026. That path implies another 25–30% downside from current levels, followed by a potential doubling if the cycle completes as expected. The bank labels the current environment a “final capitulation period,” which fits the combination of ETF losses, negative funding, and large price drawdown. The risk is clear: anyone buying now must be comfortable with a possible trip toward the low-$1,000s before any sustained upside.

Whale accumulation: roughly $2 billion added above $1,900

In parallel with institutional caution, on-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders have been buying size into weakness. Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH increased their combined stash from about 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH since February 9. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices, accumulated in the high-$1,900 range. Separately, another large whale added 3,000 ETH around $1,919 and now holds roughly 105,000 ETH, a position north of $200 million. This type of activity confirms that deep-pocket players see sub-$2,000 levels as attractive over a multi-year horizon, even while shorter-term flows are negative.

Short-term holders are dumping, echoing February’s 13% intraday slide

Short-term holders paint the opposite picture. Spent output data for coins held between 7 and 30 days shows a surge in activity since February 9. That band jumped from around 14,000 ETH spent to about 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. In practice, that means recent buyers are actively selling into any strength and using bounces to exit. A similar burst in this cohort around February 5, with price near $2,140, was followed within a day by a drop of roughly 13%. This pattern confirms that short-term money does not trust any rebound and is treating Ethereum as a trade to sell on rallies rather than an asset to hold.

Derivatives positioning: $3.06B in shorts vs $755M in longs

Futures and perpetuals add another layer of tension. Current liquidation and open interest distributions show around $3.06 billion in short positions against only about $755 million in long leverage. In other words, roughly 80% of the leveraged side is skewed to the downside. This is a double-edged setup. On one hand, it reflects deeply bearish expectations and can suppress attempted rallies as shorts lean harder into the trend. On the other hand, any sharp move above key resistance could trigger a powerful short squeeze given how much size is stacked on the wrong side of the book. For now, the market stays pinned under $2,010–$2,140, so shorts remain in control, but the powder for a violent upside spike clearly exists.

On-chain cost clusters at $1,980 and $2,020 cap rebounds

On-chain cost-basis analysis highlights why Ethereum repeatedly stalls just below $2,100. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply was accumulated. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply is sitting near break-even. These bands form dense “supply walls” where many holders are ready to sell the moment they can exit without a loss. Each attempt to push above $2,000–$2,020 runs into this passive sell pressure, which is compounded by ETF holders and short-term traders looking to de-risk. This cluster is why any advance toward $2,140 or higher requires not only buying demand from whales but also a clear sentiment shift in derivatives and short-term spot behavior.

BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and institutional signals during the drawdown

Despite the brutal drawdown, several large institutions are using the weakness to deepen their Ethereum exposure. BlackRock increased its stake in Bitmine, a company whose treasury is heavily concentrated in Ethereum, by about 166% in Q4 2025, bringing its holdings to approximately $246 million. Bitmine itself has seen its share price collapse nearly 70% to around $20, effectively acting as a high-beta proxy on ETH’s downside. In parallel, Goldman Sachs disclosed over $1 billion in Ethereum ETF holdings. These moves indicate that while crypto natives and short-term traders are capitulating, the largest traditional finance players are positioning for a long-term recovery in the Ethereum ecosystem.

Crypto insiders selling ETH but redirecting to development and diversification

Founders and early builders are not simply sitting still. Vitalik Buterin sold around $7–13 million worth of ETH to fund work on AI safety, privacy tech and biotech, framing it as “belt-tightening” for the Ethereum Foundation rather than loss of conviction. Stani Kulechov, founder of Aave, reportedly sold over $8 million of ETH. Bitmine, the second-largest Ethereum treasury, is sitting on at least $6.6 billion in unrealized losses on its Ether purchases. At first glance this looks like pure dumping, but the pattern is more nuanced: insiders are reallocating some ETH into infrastructure, research and diversification, while still running extremely concentrated exposure relative to typical asset-management standards.

Rotation into smaller DeFi names as Ethereum’s market-cap ceiling bites

One structural headwind is the sheer size of Ethereum’s market cap. At around $250 billion, a 10x move would require a valuation north of $2.5 trillion. That scale makes outsized percentage upside harder, and capital seeking faster growth is rotating into smaller DeFi projects. An example highlighted in recent coverage is Mutuum Finance (MUTM), a lending protocol that mixes peer-to-contract pools with peer-to-peer deals and pushes capital-efficiency narratives. Its presale has raised over $20.4 million, with more than 19,000 holders and a token moving from $0.01 at launch to $0.04 in Phase 7 — a 300% gain so far with a confirmed launch price of $0.06. While these numbers are small relative to ETH, they show how liquidity is hunting for convexity outside the majors.

Mutuum Finance (MUTM) – presale, security stack and roadmap to Q2 2026

Mutuum’s model is built around two lending rails. In the peer-to-contract pool, users deposit assets such as ETH or USDT and receive mtTokens that automatically grow in value as loans are repaid, turning the token into a yield-bearing receipt. For more complex needs, a peer-to-peer rail allows custom deals with negotiated rates and terms, backed by strict loan-to-value parameters and an automated liquidator to protect pool solvency. The project has invested heavily in security: a manual audit by Halborn, a 90/100 trust score on CertiK and a $50,000 bug bounty program. Community engagement is reinforced by a 24-hour board that pays a $500 daily MUTM bonus to the top contributor. Technically, the V1 protocol is already live on the Sepolia testnet with WBTC, ETH, USDT and LINK pools plus working mtToken and liquidation logic. The roadmap into Q2 2026 includes a native stablecoin and Layer-2 integrations to reduce costs and increase throughput.

Derivatives, volatility and the short-squeeze risk above $2,010–$2,140

With roughly $3.06 billion in shorts stacked against $755 million in longs, the derivatives curve is loaded for downside. However, the same imbalance that pressures price lower makes any break above resistance extremely dangerous for shorts. A 12-hour close above $2,010, followed by a clean push through $2,140, would align with the bullish divergence on the 12-hour RSI and start forcing liquidations on the short side. That scenario would likely drive Ethereum quickly toward the next resistance at $2,388 and then the bigger pivot zone near $2,746. Until price breaks the $2,010–$2,140 band convincingly, bears have the statistical edge. Once that band gives way, the structure flips from controlled grind lower to high-risk squeeze.

Bullish divergence on RSI vs price, with $1,890 as the trigger line

Technically, Ethereum’s 12-hour chart shows a classic bullish divergence. Between January 25 and February 12, price made a lower low, while the RSI posted a higher low. Further, the RSI stayed above its previous trough even as spot revisited sub-$2,000 levels around February 11. That pattern signals fading selling pressure rather than strengthening. The validity of this divergence hinges on the $1,890 zone. As long as ETH stays above $1,890 on closing basis, the divergence remains intact and supports a rebound case towards $2,010 and $2,140. A decisive break below $1,890 would invalidate the signal and open a cleaner path to the $1,740 and $1,600 levels discussed by multiple analysts.

Standard Chartered’s $1,400 floor vs long-term path back to $4,000

Putting all the pieces together, the institutional roadmap is binary. One camp, represented by Standard Chartered, expects a final capitulation dump toward $1,400, which lines up with the lower end of the technical support ladder and would mark roughly an additional 25–30% decline from current prices. The same camp also projects a recovery toward $4,000 by the end of 2026, implying around 100% upside from current levels if the bottom is set near $2,000, and closer to 185% upside if the market actually prints $1,400. In parallel, BlackRock’s accumulation via Bitmine, Goldman Sachs’ ETF exposure, whale buying in the 1–10 million ETH range, and the ongoing rotation into smaller DeFi names all signal that capital is repositioning rather than abandoning the ecosystem. The near term hinges on whether $1,890 holds and whether Ethereum can finally force a break over $2,010–$2,140 to squeeze the heavily loaded short side.

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