Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH-USD Holds $3,185 as Fusaka Upgrade Signal $4,150 Rally Ahead

Ethereum Price Forecast - ETH-USD Consolidates Near $3,185 As Fusaka Upgrade, On-Chain Flows, and Technical Barriers Define Next Move

Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around $3,185.43, up 3%, extending its recovery from November’s $2,620 low. Over 2.6 million ETH are concentrated between $3,180 and $2,800, making this range the most active supply and demand zone of Q4. The Fusaka mainnet upgrade, launched on December 3, has improved Ethereum’s transaction throughput by up to 8×, setting a foundation for scalability while price remains locked between key resistance at $3,244 and support near $3,000.

Fusaka Upgrade Strengthens Network Fundamentals

The Fusaka upgrade integrates PeerDAS (EIP-7594), allowing nodes to verify block data without downloading full datasets. This optimization expands Ethereum’s data availability while maintaining decentralization. The improvement—combined with R1 curve confirmations and higher gas limits—reduces congestion, preparing the network for the next phase of rollup scaling. Ethereum’s technical lead, Jason Chaskin, stated the change “makes Ethereum more scalable without compromising decentralization,” underscoring its decade-long engineering evolution.

Network efficiency is translating into stronger fundamentals: transaction fees have declined by 18% week-over-week, and daily on-chain activity surpassed 1.1 million transactions, the highest since September. These improvements arrive as institutional inflows into Ethereum-linked ETFs turned positive for the first time in four weeks, signaling renewed confidence from large-cap investors.

Market Structure and Key On-Chain Zones

According to blockchain data, around 2.6 million ETH were accumulated between $3,180 and $2,800, highlighting the two most critical price battlegrounds. The $3,180 resistance corresponds with the 200-day EMA and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, creating a dense overhead cluster. The $2,800 zone forms the lower demand shelf, aligned with 3.45 million ETH previously accumulated around $2,500, adding an additional support layer.

If ETH breaks above $3,244, the next Fibonacci projections target $3,438, $3,632, and an extended rally toward $3,908–$4,260. A failure to defend $3,000 could lead to retests at $2,902 and $2,616—the major structural supports defining the 2025 base pattern.

Technical Indicators: Compression Before Expansion

Ethereum’s chart shows tight compression between short-term moving averages. The 20-day EMA rests at $3,100, and the 200-day EMA at $3,244—both converging to form a coil structure typical before volatility surges. The MACD histogram flipped positive for the first time since November 22, while RSI sits at 52, reflecting neutral momentum. A daily close above $3,244 would confirm a trend reversal, targeting $3,632.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI hovers near 25, signaling that downside momentum has faded. Futures open interest climbed to $38.3 billion, showing expanding participation from derivatives traders, while spot exchange outflows reached $43.6 million, suggesting investors continue to self-custody assets—a historically bullish signal for medium-term accumulation phases.

Liquidity Flows and Institutional Positioning

Treasury demand remains subdued: digital asset treasury firms purchased only 370,000 ETH in November, down 81% from August’s 1.97 million ETH peak. However, select institutional players are accumulating. BitMine increased its holdings by 679,000 ETH, now controlling nearly 62% of its 5% circulating supply target, backed by $882 million in cash reserves for further expansion.

At the same time, exchange reserves continue falling—down 6.8% month-over-month—indicating long-term investors are moving assets off exchanges. Historically, such on-chain patterns preceded ETH rallies exceeding 25% within 30 days.

Derivative and Futures Market Sentiment

The rise in open interest coincides with reduced funding rates, confirming balanced positioning between long and short traders. The futures curve remains in moderate contango, with March 2026 contracts pricing ETH near $3,480, reflecting expectations of sustained recovery. Perpetual futures volume climbed 19% week-on-week, led by Binance and Bybit, while options traders show increased call accumulation at $3,400–$3,600 strikes.

This positioning mirrors sentiment before Ethereum’s 2023 breakout phase, suggesting that leverage is building under tight volatility bands—a condition that typically precedes sharp directional movement.

Macro Environment and Correlation with BTC

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades near $92,672, down 0.39%, but Ethereum continues to outperform, with a 7-day gain of 4.73% versus Bitcoin’s 1.42%. The ETH/BTC ratio recovered to 0.0342, its highest since October, driven by capital rotation from Layer-1 alternatives. The macro backdrop—especially the anticipated Fed rate cut cycle—supports liquidity-sensitive assets like ETH, which historically rallied >40% in the three months following initial rate reductions.

The improved M2 growth and easing U.S. yields (10-year at 4.08%) enhance speculative appetite, providing favorable cross-asset conditions for Ethereum’s breakout potential.

Network Alerts and Prysm Client Fix

The Ethereum Foundation issued a configuration warning for Prysm consensus clients following Fusaka activation. A quick reconfiguration—disabling last-epoch targets—was recommended to prevent node disruptions. Other clients remained unaffected, and validator operations continued smoothly. This proactive fix prevented potential downtime during a critical post-upgrade window and reaffirmed the resilience of Ethereum’s infrastructure.

Price Outlook and Strategic Levels

The short-term technical roadmap defines $3,244 as the pivotal resistance and $3,000–$3,051 as structural support. A clean breakout above resistance opens a path toward $3,632, while a failure to hold $3,000 could trigger a pullback to $2,800. The medium-term bullish scenario remains valid as long as ETH stays above $2,900 and maintains higher lows.

Liquidity cluster data and futures buildup point toward an eventual move to $3,500–$3,900, contingent on holding the 20-day EMA at $3,100.

Verdict — ETH-USD: BUY with Medium-Term Target $3,900–$4,150

Ethereum (ETH-USD) holds firm at $3,185, supported by the Fusaka upgrade, renewed institutional flows, and rising on-chain participation. Technical compression, heavy accumulation near $3,000, and expanding futures interest signal a buildup for a major move.
Data favors a BUY rating with a target range of $3,900–$4,150, backed by macro tailwinds, strong network fundamentals, and strengthening market structure.

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