EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro Clings to 1.19 with 1.20–1.23 Back in Play

EUR/USD – dollar recovery meets euro demand just below 1.20

Macro picture and where EUR/USD actually trades now

Spot EUR/USD is trading in a tight band after failing to sustain a break above 1.19. Stronger-than-expected US data pulled the pair back, but the retreat stalled rather than collapsing, which tells you buyers are still active on dips. The latest non-farm payrolls print came in around 130,000 versus expectations near 65,000, while the US unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3%. That combination supported the dollar intraday but did not trigger a full trend reversal because yield differentials have quietly moved in the euro’s favour and investors still see more upside risk than downside for the single currency over the next 6–12 months. On the weekly chart, EUR/USD has rallied but is “struggling to hang on to gains”, not rejecting higher prices. Even bullish technicians who project upside from the prior consolidation only see around 1.23 as a realistic cap for this leg, which effectively says: the pair can rise further, but nobody expects a one-way melt-up.

***Rate spreads, bank calls and options flow all lean medium-term bullish for EUR/USD

Under the surface, the key driver remains the 2-year yield spread between the US and Germany. That gap has been narrowing again, a structural positive for EUR/USD because every 10–20 basis points of spread compression tends to push the pair higher over time. Recent commentary from major banks boils down to the same message: near term, they look for a range roughly centred around 1.19, but they still expect an eventual break above 1.20 and a move towards the 1.22–1.2250 region on a 12-month horizon if current trends persist. In other words, the street is tactically cautious but strategically constructive. Options markets confirm that tone. Dealers report more demand for upside protection on the euro – call options that pay if EUR/USD moves higher – rather than panic buying of dollar calls. That skew tells you large accounts are more worried about missing euro upside than about a sudden dollar squeeze. The caveat is that speculative positioning is already heavily long euro. When a theme becomes crowded, any negative surprise in data or central-bank rhetoric can trigger a sharp, temporary flush lower as weak longs de-risk, even if the bigger picture remains bullish.

Intraday structure: 1.1841, 1.1800 and the short-term “line in the sand”

From a trading-desk perspective, the immediate levels that matter are very clear. The overnight EUR/USD decline after the strong US jobs report was halted by the 200-hour moving average, sitting around 1.1841. That moving average is acting as a near-term floor: as long as price stays above it on an hourly closing basis, dip buyers remain in control. A clean break below 1.1841 would “free up space” for a test of the 1.1800 figure, where there are layered bids and resting interest from real-money accounts. The options board also shows largish expiries clustered in the 1.1750–1.1760 zone around the New York 10am cut, but current price action is far enough away that these strikes are not dictating intraday flows. Day to day, the pair is essentially oscillating inside a provisional box with rough boundaries at 1.1850 and 1.1950. That range matches what several macro desks describe: EUR/USD stuck in consolidation while markets wait for the next catalyst, mainly US CPI and any new guidance from the Fed or ECB.

Weekly view: upside potential towards 1.23 but with fading momentum

On the weekly timeframe, EUR/USD has already staged a meaningful recovery from prior lows, and there are signs of fatigue as it tests higher ground. The euro initially pushed higher during the week but faded, ending with a candle that shows buyers active yet unable to fully dominate. That pattern usually points to a grind rather than a breakout: the pair can continue to edge higher, but the path is choppy and each 50–70 pips up will be contested. The “measured move” from the earlier consolidation suggests that even if the pair decisively clears resistance, the realistic upside for this leg peaks around 1.23. Translating that into risk-reward: from a current zone just under 1.19, the market is potentially offering 400–500 pips of upside versus perhaps 200–250 pips of downside back into the mid-1.16s if something goes wrong. That asymmetry explains why banks and funds remain net long EUR/USD despite the crowded nature of the trade. They see more to gain than to lose as long as US data doesn’t force a hawkish repricing of the Fed curve.

Data mix: strong US jobs, but yield dynamics still favour the euro

The latest labour figures gave the dollar a short-term boost: 130,000 new jobs versus consensus around 65,000 and a drop in the jobless rate to 4.3% told markets the US economy is not rolling over. That reduced the odds of an extra Fed cut before mid-year and briefly knocked EUR/USD off the highs. But when you look at rates markets instead of headlines, the story is less dollar-friendly. The spread between US and German 2-year yields has been narrowing, signalling that investors expect the growth and policy differential to move in the euro’s favour over time. If that trend continues, it usually drags EUR/USD higher regardless of short bursts of strong US data. On top of that, investors have seen inflation cooling back towards 2.4% in the US, with core measures closer to 2.5%. That gives the Fed cover to cut later in 2026 even if they pause in the near term. The combination of still-solid US growth but moderating inflation is actually ideal for a gradual dollar downtrend: there is no crisis to trigger panic buying of USD, but there is also no runaway inflation that forces the Fed to stay ultra-hawkish.

Event risk: waiting on US CPI and weekly jobless claims

Near term, EUR/USD price action is largely in “wait and react” mode. With no major euro-area surprises on the calendar and the ECB signalling patience, traders are focusing on US releases. Weekly jobless claims are monitored for signs that the labour market is cooling beneath the strong headline payrolls, but the big trigger remains the next CPI print. A hotter CPI, revisiting or overshooting the 2.5% core area, would push yields higher and likely cap EUR/USD, potentially forcing a squeeze back through 1.1841 and towards 1.1800. A softer CPI, keeping year-on-year inflation closer to 2.4% or lower, would reinforce the view that the Fed can cut later this year without losing control, which typically weakens the dollar and supports a move back towards 1.1950 and then 1.20. The point is simple: until that data arrives, the pair is trading levels and flows more than narratives.

Cross-asset context: gold above $5,000 and risk appetite back on

The broader macro backdrop still favours currencies tied to risk and diversification rather than the pure safety of the dollar. Gold (XAU/USD) has reclaimed the $5,000 per ounce level after a wild swing between the January record high near $5,600 and lows below $4,920. Spot gold is hovering around $5,041–$5,044, with April futures near $5,046, and technicians are watching $4,950 as key support and $5,146 then $5,298 as upside targets. When a classic hedge asset like gold trades this firmly even after strong US data, it signals that investors are not rushing back into the dollar as their only shelter. Instead, they are keeping allocations in neutral “store-of-value” assets and using the dollar more tactically. That environment usually benefits EUR/USD, because the euro is the main alternative reserve currency in FX. The longer gold holds above $5,000 and the more it behaves like a magnet around that level, the more likely it is that the dollar’s role as the sole safe haven remains diluted – which indirectly supports euro strength on dips.

Risk sentiment: altcoins and AI tokens still drawing speculative capital

Risk appetite is also visible in the crypto fringe, and that matters for EUR/USD because it reflects how aggressively investors are willing to move out of dollars and into higher-beta assets. One example is ChainOpera AI (COAI), a relatively small AI-linked token quoted in euros. COAI trades around €0.3233, with a market cap near €60.78 million, off about 9.5% over the last 24 hours but still up roughly 28.9% over the week and almost 64% over the year. Daily volume sits near €15.8 million, with about 188 million tokens in circulation out of a 1 billion maximum supply. On the technical dashboard, shorter-term signals (4-hour and daily) still show a “Buy” bias, while the weekly signal leans “Sell”, highlighting that the move is extended on a longer horizon but momentum traders are still active. Price-path projections based on modest 5% annual growth push theoretical COAI levels to around €0.3747 by 2027 and roughly €0.4338 by 2030, implying a potential 21–22% multi-year return if the thesis holds. Whether those projections materialise or not is secondary; the important point for EUR/USD is that speculative capital is not hiding in cash. If altcoins with under €100 million market caps still attract flows, it shows investors’ risk tolerance remains elevated – a backdrop that typically favours the euro over the dollar when yield differentials are not aggressively USD-positive.

How other majors and metals frame EUR/USD risk-reward

Looking at the weekly behaviour of other majors gives context for EUR/USD. The US dollar has been mixed rather than universally strong. Against the Canadian dollar, USD/CAD tested the 1.35 level before bouncing and forming a weekly hammer, signalling bottoming interest and a possible path back to 1.3750–1.40 but within a longstanding range. GBP/USD rallied then gave back roughly half its gains, with traders focusing on 1.3750 as key resistance and 1.35–1.33 as layered support. USD/JPY has fallen sharply to test its 50-week EMA, with upside caps around 156–158 and historic resistance near 160, while USD/CHF is finding buyers around 0.76 with resistance near 0.79. Silver, like gold, is chopping around a central zone near $80, with $70 acting as a major floor and $90 as a ceiling. This cross-asset mix shows a dollar that is no longer in runaway bull mode; instead, it is trading pair-by-pair, while commodities tied to inflation and hedging remain bid. That is exactly the environment in which EUR/USD tends to behave like a slow-moving trend trade rather than a violent reversal candidate. The euro can appreciate gradually as long as the US does not deliver a sequence of upside shocks that force yields higher across the curve.

Tactical plan: levels, bias and whether EUR/USD is a buy, sell or hold

Putting the pieces together, the case is as follows. Strong US jobs data at 130,000 with unemployment at 4.3% gives the dollar some short-term support, but the narrowing US–German 2-year yield spread, persistent structural demand for euros via options and flows, and bank targets clustered around 1.20–1.22 keep the medium-term picture in favour of EUR/USD strength. Short-term support sits first at the 200-hour moving average near 1.1841 and then at the 1.1800 figure. Below that, the pair would start to challenge the broader bullish narrative and invite talk of a deeper correction. On the topside, the 1.1950 band is immediate resistance, with 1.20 as the psychological barrier and 1.23 as a realistic extension if the breakout sticks. Given that current price action is closer to the lower half of the 1.1850–1.1950 box, the upside/downside skew still favours the euro as long as 1.1800 holds.

On that basis, the stance on EUR/USD is bullish with a buy-the-dip bias, not a neutral hold and definitely not a structural sell. Dips towards 1.1850–1.1840 are attractive as long as the 1.1800 area is respected on a closing basis. A sustained break below 1.1800 would downgrade the view to neutral and put 1.17–1.1650 back on the map. Conversely, a daily close above 1.1950 followed by a weekly close north of 1.20 would validate the banks’ 1.22–1.23 targets and confirm that the consolidation phase is over. Until US CPI proves otherwise, the data, the cross-asset picture and the flow setup still argue that the next 300–400 pips in EUR/USD are more likely to be higher than lower.

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