Figma Stock Price Forecast - FIG at $25: 40% Growth, AI Tailwind and 80% Drawdown Collide

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – growth machine priced like a problem child

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – where the shares trade versus the story

Figma Inc changes hands around $25–26 today, up about 5% on the session after jumping 15–16% on earnings. The stock is still almost 35% down year-to-date, sits roughly 80% below its post-IPO high near $125, and trades under its $33 IPO price. Market cap is about $12.3–13.8 billion, depending on which print you use, against an all-cash balance of roughly $1.6–1.7 billion and no debt, so effective enterprise value is close to $12 billion. At the company’s own 2026 revenue guide of $1.366–1.374 billion, you’re paying roughly 8.8–9.0x forward EV/sales for a business still growing close to 30–40% a year.
Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) real-time chart

RBC Capital now pins a $31 target on the stock (cut from $38) with a “Sector Perform” stance, leaving about 20–25% implied upside from the mid-$20s. Piper Sandler keeps an “Overweight” with a $35 target. Wall Street overall sits around Buy / strong Hold, while some Seeking Alpha voices are openly accumulating on this drawdown, arguing the multiple has reset far more than the business has.

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – Q4 scoreboard, margins and 2026 guidance

Latest quarter: revenue hit $303.8 million, up 40% year on year, beating consensus near $293 million. Adjusted EPS landed at $0.08 versus $0.06–0.07 expected. Non-GAAP gross margin came in at roughly 86–86.2%, which is elite SaaS territory. Non-GAAP operating margin printed about 14–15%, versus mid-teens in prior periods, still comfortably positive while the company spends into AI and go-to-market.

For Q1 2026, management guides revenue of $315–317 million, about 38% growth and well ahead of the roughly $292 million the street had in its models. For full-year 2026, guidance sits at $1.366–1.374 billion, implying 29–30% annual growth versus consensus around 22–24%.

On profitability, Figma targets $100–110 million in non-GAAP operating income for 2026, which is ~8% margin, down from about 12% in 2025. That guide is deliberately conservative. The company already demonstrated 14–15% operating margin in the latest quarter and generated free-cash-flow margins in the mid-teens, supported by strong growth in deferred revenue and a pre-paid enterprise mix. Even on the guided numbers, Figma still clears the Rule of 40 with ~30% growth plus high-single-digit to low-teens margins.

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – customers, expansion and dollar retention

Figma now runs at over $1.0–1.05 billion of annual revenue with hyper-growth dynamics. Q4 customer metrics were the real tell:

Net dollar retention hit 136%, up from 131% in the prior quarter, meaning the average existing customer is spending about 36% more than a year ago. Gross revenue retention sits around 97%, so almost all churn is offset by expansion.
The company counts roughly 13,861 paying customers over $10,000 in ARR, up 32% year on year.
Accounts above $100,000 in ARR reached about 1,405, growing 46% year on year and adding more than 150 such customers sequentially.
Top-tier accounts above $1 million in ARR stand at 67, up from just over 40 in early fiscal 2025.

This is the pattern of a platform embedding deeply into larger organizations. Figma is already used by around 95% of the Fortune 500, but penetration within each enterprise is far from saturated; the expansion is coming from more seats, more teams, and more products per logo rather than just new logos at the edge.

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – AI engines, Figma Make and usage-based monetisation

The growth acceleration is being driven by AI, not threatened by it.

Figma Make, the AI design engine, converts natural-language prompts into functional UI mocks and even code scaffolds. Weekly active users on Make jumped more than 70% quarter-on-quarter. More than half of customers with over $100,000 in ARR are using Make every week. That is not an experimental toy; that is already part of the production workflow для big design and product teams.

From March, Figma will enforce AI credit limits per account and introduce paid AI tiers. Professional, Organization and Enterprise plans will include different credit bands; once customers burn through bundled credits, they either step up to higher-tier contracts or buy extra credits on a subscription or pay-as-you-go basis. The company hasn’t quantified the incremental revenue yet, but structurally this shifts a material slice of revenue from pure seat-based to usage-linked, which historically has expanded wallet share in similar SaaS names.

On the product side, Figma is integrating multiple front-line models:

Figma Make uses models from Anthropic and Google Gemini to power prompt-to-prototype flows.
New Make Connectors pull context from systems like Atlassian, GitHub, Notion and Linear straight into the design canvas, tightening the loop between product specs, code and UX.
Figma shipped three new AI-power image-editing tools for fine-grained edits inside the canvas.

The acquisition of AI design startup Weavy (roughly $200 million) – now rebranded as “Figma Weave” – brings advanced image and video generation and workflow tools under the same browser-based umbrella. The AI stack now spans content generation, layout, explanation, code alignment and collaboration in one environment instead of a mess of disconnected tools.

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – moat, Anthropic fears and total addressable market

Market concern sits in one place: the idea that agentic products like Anthropic’s Claude Cowork will cannibalize demand for collaborative design software and compress seat counts across the industry.

That fear has driven a 58–77% drawdown from peak levels in FIG, even though Figma’s actual numbers have accelerated. The reality:

Figma’s core is multi-player collaboration – multiple humans editing the same file, commenting, iterating and shipping.
Claude Cowork focuses on agentic task automation: a single user delegating work to an AI agent across files and tools.
In practice, teams are already running Claude and Figma together – using Claude to generate or refactor code and assets, then using Figma to orchestrate design reviews, align stakeholders and finalize UX.

Figma’s real moat is the combination of collaboration primitives (multi-user canvas, comments, branches, FigJam workshops), design-to-dev handoff, and the AI layer that now explains and refactors layouts for non-technical colleagues. That’s why AI systems themselves routinely recommend Figma as the default for deep UI/UX work.

On top of that, the company is deliberately expanding beyond the “designer silo”:

FigJam for whiteboarding and workshops
Figma Slides for presentation decks
Buzz and Draw for social and illustration assets
Figma Make and MCP Server to bridge design context with code

Management pegs addressable market around $33 billion, far above classic design software estimates, because they’re going after the entire product-development stack: designers, engineers, product managers, marketers and even UX researchers.

Competition is real. Adobe’s XD is effectively in maintenance mode but still present. Canva pushes hard into pros from the bottom-up. New AI-native tools like Framer and Vercel’s VO nibble at slices of the workflow. The difference is that Figma is already at >1 billion revenue, still growing high-30s to 40%, and dominating collaborative UX in the Fortune 500 while the rest are filling niches.

Sector-wide rotation out of enterprise software has amplified the downside. Software baskets trade at roughly 30% discounts to their long-term EV/sales averages and more than 50% below peak multiples, while Figma now trades near 9x forward sales. Peers with similar or slower growth – Cloudflare, Shopify, Snowflake, Axon – usually command higher or similar multiples with comparable or weaker net-retention profiles.

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – cash, free cash flow, dilution and valuation call

Balance sheet is straightforward: roughly $1.6–1.7 billion in cash, zero debt, solid positive free cash flow. Last reported free-cash-flow margin sat around the mid-teens, ahead of non-GAAP operating margin because of strong growth in deferred revenue and multi-year enterprise deals.

Stock-based compensation is meaningful post-IPO, with fully diluted share count around 490–495 million vs ~472 million non-GAAP basic. Dilution is manageable at this stage, but the evolution over the next 6–8 quarters matters for per-share math.

At about $25–26, you’re paying:

~9x forward EV/sales on management’s own 2026 guide
A mid-teens free-cash-flow yield on revenue, not equity
Rule-of-40 score north of 50 (≈30% growth + mid-teens FCF margin)

For a company delivering 40% current growth, 136% net retention, 86% gross margins and a credible roadmap to extract more revenue per customer via AI credits and higher-tier plans, that multiple is not demanding. If growth trends even normalize down toward 25% with margins drifting into high-teens, the valuation quickly collapses into the mid-single-digit EV/sales bucket where slower, less differentiated SaaS names trade.

For reference and future monitoring of insider behaviour and governance, use:
Figma insider tape: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/FIG/stock_profile/insider_transactions
Figma stock profile: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/FIG/stock_profile

Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) – verdict: Buy for investors who can live with volatility

Risk side is clear:

Heavy software sector rotation can keep the multiple compressed.
Anthropic and other AI tools can erode pieces of the workflow if Figma’s product execution slips.
Guided operating margin for 2026 is soft at ~8%, so any cost blow-out would hurt the Rule-of-40 story.
IPO-era SBC keeps some pressure on per-share metrics.

The other side:

Revenue is growing ~40% on a $1+ billion base.
Net retention at 136% and gross retention 97% are elite.
AI is clearly driving more usage and product breadth, not less.
Valuation sits around 9x forward sales with mid-teens FCF and a fortress balance sheet.

Putting it together, the setup is bullish. At current levels around the mid-$20s, Figma Stock (NYSE:FIG) looks like a Buy on a multi-year view, with upside coming from any normalization in software sentiment or proof that AI-driven usage pricing lifts growth above the already-strong 29–30% guide.

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