GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Struggles Below 1.35 as BoE Pivot Meets Stronger Dollar

GBP/USD – Sterling slide deepens as BoE pivot collides with a stronger dollar

GBP/USD around 1.34–1.35 after failing above 1.38

GBP/USD is trading in the 1.34–1.35 zone after reversing sharply from the 1.3866 high reached earlier this year. The pair has printed lows near 1.3480–1.3482, losing roughly 2.7% from the peak and returning to levels last seen around 23 January. The break under the 1.3510 floor and the psychological 1.3500 mark confirms a transition from a late-2025 bullish leg to a clear, controlled downtrend in early 2026.

UK labour market breaks, inflation retreats and pressure on GBP intensifies

The GBP side is being hit by a clean shift in the macro data. The ILO unemployment rate has jumped to 5.2% in the three months to December, the highest in about five years and a decisive move away from the “tight labour market” narrative. The Bank of England’s preferred regular private-sector wage metric has fallen to 3.4%, also a five-year low, which removes the key argument that wages are too hot to permit easing. Inflation is moving the same way. Headline UK CPI slowed from 3.4% YoY in December to 3.0% YoY in January, with the monthly rate collapsing from +0.4% to -0.5%. Core CPI eased from 3.2% to 3.1% year-on-year and from +0.3% to -0.6% month-on-month. The Retail Price Index dropped from 4.2% to 3.8%, beating expectations of 3.9%, while the Producer Price Index slid from 3.1% to 2.5%. Taken together, higher joblessness, softer wages and broad-based disinflation leave GBP exposed as markets abandon the idea of a stubbornly hawkish BoE.

BoE expectations flip toward March 19 easing and erode GBP yield support

That data mix has forced a rapid repricing of the BoE path. Markets now fully price a 25 bp cut by April and assign around a 70–75% probability to a first move at the 19 March 2026 meeting. Only a few weeks ago, the dominant narrative was “higher for longer”; now the focus is on how quickly and how often rates will be cut. As a result, the front end of the gilt curve has rallied, short-dated UK yields have fallen, and GBP/USD has lost one of its main supports: relative yield. Every additional downside surprise in UK data now tilts toward more easing, not toward maintaining restriction. That regime change is why GBP is underperforming across the board and why the GBP/USD bounce attempts are being sold into rather than followed.

USD side: firm data, Fed patience and geopolitical risk keep the dollar bid

The USD leg of GBP/USD is doing the opposite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding around 97.7–97.8, just underneath a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near 97.6 and a descending trendline from the 99.8 high. The FOMC minutes from January make it clear the Fed is in no rush to cut. Several policymakers warn that easing too early could jeopardise the push back to 2% inflation, while others remain open to cuts if disinflation is sustained. That balance supports a “patient but not dovish” stance that favours the USD. Macro data back this. Nonfarm Payrolls for January surprised to the upside and US housing starts climbed above 1.4 million, even as building permits slipped to about 1.38 million. The impression is of an economy cooling in an orderly way, not collapsing, which allows the Fed to stick with tight policy longer than the BoE. On top of that, elevated US–Iran tension and discussion of possible military action support the USD through safe-haven demand as global risk hedging increases.

Cross-asset performance: GBP is one of the softest majors against USD

The weekly FX performance map confirms that GBP is one of the weakest majors. Against the USD, the GBP is down roughly 1.1% this week, and it is also negative versus EUR, CHF and CAD, while only marginally stronger than the JPY. At the same time, assets that benefit from a higher-for-longer Fed and geopolitical stress – the USD, US yields and gold near $5,000 – are bid. That is a classic configuration where the USD attracts safe-haven and carry flows while currencies linked to central banks pivoting toward cuts, such as GBP, give ground. In that environment GBP/USD is being compressed both by deteriorating UK differentials and by a still-supported dollar.

Spot structure in GBP/USD: clean slide from 1.3866 to the 1.34s

From a price-action perspective, the move lower in GBP/USD is orderly and well-structured rather than a panic flush. The pair has fallen from the 1.3866 high earlier in 2026 to about 1.3490–1.3500, with intraday spikes to around 1.3481–1.3482. Important horizontal reference points have been broken on the way down. The pair is now well under 1.3724, the September high that had acted as a major cap and then pivot point, and it has lost the 1.3510 February low, which is now turning into resistance. That step-down behaviour – successive rallies failing at progressively lower levels – is consistent with a persistent downtrend and not a simple corrective pullback.

Pattern damage: VCP breakdown and moving averages acting as a ceiling

Technically, the structure changed when GBP/USD broke down from a symmetrical triangle / Volatility Contraction Pattern. That consolidation had compressed volatility between late-2025 and early-2026, and the resolution came to the downside once 1.3550–1.3510 broke. After the break, volatility expanded lower, confirming the bearish signal. On the daily chart, spot is below the 20-day EMA around 1.3557, which is now sloping down and capping intraday rebounds. The 50-day EMA near 1.3590 and the 200-day EMA around 1.3600–1.3601 reinforce the same ceiling. On the four-hour chart, the pair has slipped below the rising trendline from 1.3340 and trades under the 50-period EMA close to 1.3600 and the 200-period EMA near 1.3550. These stacked moving averages above spot confirm that momentum is aligned to the downside. The 14-period RSI on the daily timeframe sits near 33–34, just above oversold but still tracking lower, signalling that further weakness is possible before any meaningful relief rally.

Key GBP/USD levels: 1.3449 as pivot, 1.3421 and 1.3340–1.3338 as deeper supports

The immediate focus on the downside is the 1.3478–1.3449 band. The 1.3449 line is a clear horizontal pivot; a daily close below this area unlocks a relatively thin zone of support until 1.3421 and, more importantly, 1.3340–1.3338. That lower band corresponds to the late-January base and marks the point where the early-2026 up-leg began. A move toward 1.3340 would represent roughly a 500-pip round-trip from the 1.38 high and test whether the broader medium-term uptrend from 2024 is still valid. On the topside, 1.3513–1.3581 is now a supply zone rather than a floor. That range includes the former horizontal support at 1.3510–1.3550 and the 50-day and 200-day EMAs around 1.3590–1.3600. As long as GBP/USD remains below that cluster, the path of least resistance remains lower. Only a sustained daily close above roughly 1.3650 would suggest that bears are losing control and that the market is reconsidering either the BoE or the Fed trajectory.

Upcoming catalysts: UK activity data versus US PCE and Fed commentary

The next set of events can either accelerate the move toward 1.3340 or pause it. In the UK, Retail Sales for January and the flash S&P Global PMIs for February will show whether the slide in inflation is being accompanied by a soft landing or a harder growth slowdown. Weak consumption and soft services PMIs, added to higher unemployment and lower CPI, would reinforce expectations of a 19 March BoE cut and keep GBP under pressure. Better-than-feared spending and activity would not reverse the disinflation trend but could slow the market’s willingness to price additional cuts for later in 2026. In the US, focus is on the PCE price index, jobless claims and fresh remarks from officials such as Neel Kashkari and Michele Bowman. A firm PCE print would support the DXY around 97.7–97.8 and keep GBP/USD pinned near the lows. A soft PCE outcome would revive the case for earlier Fed easing and could give GBP/USD room for a corrective bounce if the BoE narrative does not deteriorate further. Geopolitics is the wild card. Any escalation between the US and Iran that genuinely threatens supply through the Strait of Hormuz will support the USD and weigh on higher-beta currencies. De-escalation would remove part of that safe-haven support and could slightly ease pressure on GBP/USD.

Stance on GBP/USD: downtrend intact, rallies to 1.3550–1.3650 remain selling zones

Combining the macro and technical picture, the bias for GBP/USD stays negative. The UK is now clearly in a phase where disinflation and a softer labour market allow and almost force the BoE toward earlier cuts. The USD is underpinned by a patient Fed, firm US data and safe-haven demand. Spot is trading below all key moving averages, has broken a major consolidation pattern to the downside and has taken out important support levels at 1.3724, 1.3510 and 1.3500. Support is relatively sparse until 1.3449, 1.3421 and then 1.3340–1.3338, making an extension lower plausible if 1.3440–1.3450 fails to hold. Under these conditions, the stance is bearish on GBP/USD, effectively a Sell rather than Hold or Buy bias. Rallies into the 1.3550–1.3650 band, where horizontal resistance and major EMAs converge, are more likely to be used to re-establish short exposure than to mark a durable trend change, unless daily closes reclaim and hold above roughly 1.3650.

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