Gold Price Edges Up to $3,428.90 as Summer Range Holds Firm
Gold (XAU/USD) opened at $3,428.90 on Tuesday, reflecting a 1.6 percent advance from Monday’s settlement at $3,374.40. The precious metal remains confined within the established summer band between $3,200 on the downside and $3,500 on the upside—a range it has inhabited since early June’s parabolic rise to a record $3,444 on June 13. Year-over-year, gold has surged more than 40 percent from $2,364 on August 5, 2024, underscoring its role as both a safe-haven and inflation hedge.
Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Prop Up XAU/USD
The latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls revision and weaker-than-forecast factory orders—a 4.8 percent plunge in June following an upwardly revised 8.3 percent gain—have intensified speculation that the Federal Reserve will pivot dovish in September. CME FedWatch data now show an over 90 percent likelihood of a 25 basis-point cut. As real yields on 10-year Treasuries slipped below 1.6 percent, gold’s non-yielding appeal has strengthened, with XAU/USD finding solid bids near the 50-day exponential moving average at approximately $3,366.
Trade Turbulence Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
President Trump’s August 7 tariff hike—levies ranging from 10 percent to 41 percent on dozens of trading partners—has injected renewed uncertainty into global commerce. The impending expiration of the 90-day U.S.–China tariff truce and threats of 35 percent duties on EU imports have prompted investors to seek refuge in bullion. Amid these headline risks, gold’s ability to retain sub-$3,385 gains highlights its resilience, even as equities and risk assets post modest recoveries.
Technical Landscape: Support at $3,366, Resistance Near $3,385
On the four-hour chart, Friday’s thrust above $3,335 cleared the way for bulls, but follow-through stalled at $3,385—now acting as near-term resistance. Immediate support clusters around $3,366–$3,365, anchored by the 50-day EMA. A deeper retracement would likely test the 200-period simple moving average on the same timeframe, located near $3,350–$3,349. Only a decisive break above $3,400 would embolden further upside, challenging the $3,434–$3,435 pivot before eyeing the $3,500 ceiling.
Momentum Oscillators Signal Consolidation, Not Reversal
The Relative Strength Index hovers around 55, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the Commodity Channel Index has eased from elevated levels without triggering a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram remains modestly positive on daily charts, suggesting that short-term consolidation is part of a healthy digestion phase rather than a reversal of gold’s broader uptrend.
Institutional and Retail Flows Maintain Gold’s Appeal
Exchange-traded fund inflows have steadied after mid-year records, and central bank purchases—particularly in Asia—continue at a robust clip, adding more than 200 tons to reserves so far in 2025. Retail demand for coins, bars, and gold-backed IRAs persists, with household jewelry holdings now valued near $3,350 per ounce. The balanced contributions from diversified buyer cohorts reinforce gold’s multi-faceted support structure.
Strategic Stance: Buy on Dips, Hold for Breakout
Given the convergence of Fed rate-cut optimism, trade-related safe-haven flows, and technical resilience, maintaining core exposure to XAU/USD is recommended. Tactical buying near $3,350–$3,366 allows for a favorable risk-reward profile, with an eye toward a rally above $3,400 unlocking further gains. A sustained slide below $3,350 would warrant reevaluation, but for now, a buy-on-dips approach aligns best with the prevailing data-driven backdrop.
