Gold Price Defends $3,400 as Stock Market Awaits CPI and Fed Signals

Spot and Futures Check: XAU/USD Stabilizes After the Sharpest Single-Day Drop in Three Months

Gold’s main contract GC=F opened the week at $3,458.10/oz, briefly dipped lower, and then steadied near $3,409–$3,418/oz, a retracement of roughly 2.1%–2.5% from Friday’s intraday peak and the biggest nominal pullback since the $116 slide on May 12. The metal remains resilient: up about 3.8% over the past month, 2.7% week-on-week from the $3,367.60 August 4 open, and an impressive 42.8% over the last year from $2,422.30. Friday’s rally to $3,534.20 marked a new record before policy headlines cut momentum, with December futures settling $80.50 lower at $3,410.80, lows pressing the $3,368–$3,367 band

Policy Shock vs. Clarification: How Tariff Headlines Repriced XAU/USD

The rally that drove gold through $3,500 started when a July 31 Customs letter reclassified 1-kilo and 100-ounce bars under a tariff-bearing code. This sent futures to $3,534 at the highs. Gains evaporated after the White House signaled an executive order to correct “misinformation,” implying bullion imports may avoid those levies. Conflicting reports on Swiss bars—some citing a levy already in place—kept volatility elevated. The U.S.–London spread, which had widened beyond $100/oz, compressed back under $60/oz as tariff risk was repriced

Macro Cross-Currents: Fed Path, CPI Risk, and the Dollar-Yield-Oil Triangle

Rate expectations anchor gold’s bid. Traders see a 25 bp cut in September and at least two cuts by year-end after soft jobs data. The U.S. 10-year yield hovers near 4.27%, while the USD is slightly firmer and WTI crude holds at $64. Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI are pivotal: a hotter core CPI could force a retest of support zones; an inline or cooler print may push gold back toward $3,450–$3,500

Geopolitics and Trade: Ceasefire Hopes Cool Haven Bids; China Truce Deadline Adds Risk

Risk appetite improved on talk of a potential U.S.–Russia ceasefire framework, trimming haven demand. Offsetting that is uncertainty over the U.S.–China tariff truce deadline on August 12, alongside possible new tech export restrictions. Asian equities and U.S. futures are higher, but hedging demand persists ahead of inflation data

Official-Sector Accumulation: Central Bank Buying Reinforces the Floor

The People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak to nine months in July, adding 60,000 troy ounces and raising reserves to 73.96 million ounces. Since November, that’s about 36 tons purchased. Official-sector demand remains a major driver of gold’s ~30% year-to-date gain, signaling strong underlying support even at record prices

Tape Action and Levels: XAU/USD Guards $3,400 as Momentum Resets

Friday’s candle printed a long upper shadow, giving sellers an opening Monday. The drop slipped under $3,382, breaking the 100-hour SMA and lower channel line. Intraday momentum has turned negative, but the daily RSI(14) at 57 remains constructive, and the 50-day EMA rising through $3,356 aligns with last week’s buy zones

Support and Resistance Map: Key Price Memory Zones for XAU/USD

Supports sit at $3,378, $3,360, and $3,300. Below that, the $3,353–$3,350 demand pocket and $3,315 are critical, with the July swing low at $3,319.20 as a trend-defining level. Resistance begins at $3,400, then $3,409–$3,410, $3,422–$3,423, and $3,434–$3,435, with the major breakout trigger at $3,500

Market Microstructure: Basis and Liquidity Normalize After Friday’s Spike

Friday’s tariff-driven surge came on thin summer liquidity, amplifying price swings. As clarification emerged, forward spreads narrowed, and market makers pulled EFPs back to normal ranges. This kept Monday’s drop sharp but controlled, with no signs of structural stress

Cross-Asset Lens: Silver Tracks Gold’s Volatility Without Breaking Trend

Silver (SI) gained 4.5% last week to $38.455/oz and ~31% year-on-year before slipping to $37.865 Monday. The broader trend remains bullish, with resistance at $39.91 and supports at $37.65/37.50, consistent with precious metals consolidating, not reversing

What Flips the Switch Next: CPI, Tariff Clarity, and the Fed’s Tone

The July CPI print will determine the near-term bias: a 2.8% YoY reading in line with expectations likely softens the dollar and opens a push toward $3,435. A hot surprise risks a dip to $3,350 where dip-buyers have been active. White House confirmation of tariff exemptions would reduce volatility while keeping the broader bullish trend intact if Fed easing stays on track

Positioning and Strategy: XAU/USD Bias, Trade Setup, and Invalidation

With YTD gains near 30%, a dovish Fed path, strong central bank demand, and price action holding $3,350–$3,400, the bias is Bullish — Buy the Dip, Not the Spike. Long-term entries favor accumulation near $3,356–$3,330 with targets at $3,450–$3,500. A daily close below $3,315–$3,300 invalidates the setup and shifts bias to Neutral

Bottom Line on XAU/USD Right Now

Gold has digested the tariff rumor, shed the chaos premium, and is back to trading core macro drivers: inflation, rates, and central bank flows. As long as $3,350–$3,400 holds, the market is primed for a run toward $3,435–$3,500. The preferred play: accumulate on dips, scale out into $3,423–$3,450, and only chase a breakout after a daily close above $3,500

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