Gold Price Forecast - $3,809 Gold Futures Record as Fed Cut Bets, China Custody Drive Surge

Gold (XAU/USD) Surges to Fresh Records as Fed Dovish Tilt Lifts Demand

Gold extended its historic run with spot XAU/USD climbing to $3,790.64 before settling near $3,770, while December futures (GC=F) surged 0.9% to $3,809.10, crossing the critical $3,800 threshold. Over the past month, gold futures advanced 12.9%, and on a one-year horizon, prices are up an astonishing 44% from $2,626.50 in September 2024. Institutional buying through SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) added another 0.6% to holdings, reaching 1,000.57 tons, the highest in over three years, confirming the structural bid behind bullion.

Powell Speech and Rate Cut Bets Define Near-Term Direction

Expectations for additional U.S. rate cuts are dominating the gold narrative. Following the Fed’s first 25-basis-point cut of 2025, markets are now pricing in two more 25 bp cuts — 90% probability in October, 73% in December. Fed Governor Stephen Miran openly pushed for a 50 bp cut, warning of excessive tightening risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack argued for caution. Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is pivotal, as any reinforcement of dovish momentum could send XAU/USD toward $3,879.64, the next technical swing target.

China’s Gold Strategy Adds a New Geopolitical Layer

A major catalyst came from Beijing, with Bloomberg reporting that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is pitching itself as custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves. China has already expanded its own reserves for ten straight months, adding 1.9 tonnes in August, underscoring its push to diversify away from U.S. dollar assets. Given China is both the world’s largest producer and consumer of gold, this custodial ambition signals a long-term structural shift in bullion’s geopolitical role.

Global Demand Stays Firm Despite Record Prices

Physical demand has remained resilient even as gold trades at all-time highs. In India, premiums touched a 10-month high ahead of the festive season, while Chinese buying continues at pace. Independent analysts highlight that ETF inflows and seasonal jewelry demand together are cushioning any profit-taking. This dynamic signals broad-based demand, not just speculative momentum.

Silver and Platinum Ride the Wave

Gold’s rally spilled over into other metals. Silver (SI=F) advanced to $44.61 per ounce, its best level in 14 years, marking a 50% year-to-date gain. Platinum climbed 2.8% to $1,465.15, with industrial use cases adding to haven flows. The gold-to-silver ratio dropped sharply, showing silver’s relative outperformance as investors chase leverage to the gold trade.

Technical Levels in Focus

On the charts, XAU/USD remains firmly bullish, with immediate support seen at $3,627.96 and $3,612.83, while the 50-day moving average at $3,453.22 provides the deeper anchor. Resistance sits at $3,879.64, and a breakout beyond that opens scope toward $4,000, a level Goldman Sachs projects for mid-2026. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood went further, suggesting 75% upside potential toward $6,600, arguing gold remains under-owned relative to the scale of global monetary easing.

Mining Equities and Leverage to Bullion

The rally has lifted gold miners. Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD) hit a 13-year high on what management called a “game-changing” discovery, while Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) announced first pour at Ghana’s Ahafo North, adding 3 million ounces of reserves over 13 years. Mid-tier players like B2Gold (NYSE:BTG) and Kinross Gold (NYSE:KGC) also benefitted, with KGC trading higher alongside bullion strength. With GLD holdings rising, miners tied directly to ETF inflows remain tactical beneficiaries.

Macro Headwinds Support Bullion

The U.S. 10-year yield slipped to 4.129%, while the dollar index drifted lower to 96.93, both reinforcing the gold bid. Meanwhile, the OECD raised 2025 U.S. growth forecasts to 1.8%, but projected a slowdown to 1.5% in 2026 as tariffs take hold. This outlook strengthens the case for non-yielding assets like gold in a cooling growth, easing-rate environment.

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