Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Battles $3,400 Resistance as Fed Uncertainty Shapes Next Move
Gold Consolidates Around $3,400 Amid Political Turmoil
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading firmly around $3,400 per ounce, with intraday highs stretching toward $3,410, its strongest levels in over five weeks. The move comes as investors digest a storm of political and monetary developments. The U.S. Dollar weakened after Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit against President Trump, challenging his attempt to remove her from the central bank. This clash has thrown Fed independence into the spotlight, unsettling markets and underpinning demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
While bullion is holding near the upper end of its summer range, the price has yet to escape the $200 band between $3,250 and $3,450 that has defined trading since June. Analysts caution that despite several bullish drivers over recent months—including central bank buying, resilient ETF inflows, and lower Treasury yields—gold has struggled to advance beyond the May high near $3,500.
ETF Demand and Central Bank Buying Keep the Floor Firm
Investor participation remains selective, but structural demand continues to tighten the gold market. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD) rose 0.6% this week to their largest in over seven days, signaling institutional inflows. At the same time, central banks remain consistent buyers of bullion, with monthly accumulation trending near record levels.
Despite these inflows, derivatives activity paints a more cautious picture. Open interest in CME Comex gold futures has fallen to its lowest in 18 months, highlighting that speculative traders are reducing exposure. This divergence between ETF flows and futures positioning shows gold is increasingly a market driven by longer-term strategic buyers rather than short-term leveraged players.
Gold Technicals: Resistance Near $3,440, Breakout Hinges on $3,500
From a technical perspective, gold’s ability to reclaim the $3,400 handle is significant, but momentum will be tested by layered resistance above. The three-month cost basis near $3,415–$3,430 has already drawn profit-taking, and the more formidable wall sits at $3,500, a psychological and historical high. Analysts view a confirmed daily close above that level as the trigger for a measured move toward $3,800, derived from the summer’s ascending triangle pattern.
Support is equally well defined. The 50-day EMA near $3,360 has repeatedly acted as a pivot line, while stronger support waits at $3,300 and $3,200, with the 200-day EMA rising toward $3,200 to reinforce the floor. If gold slips below those levels, the bullish trend would weaken, but so far, every dip has attracted heavy buying.
Macro Data: Rate Cuts in Focus as Inflation Approaches
The macro backdrop is amplifying gold’s appeal. U.S. GDP for Q2 was revised upward to 3.3%, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, held steady at 2.5%. Fed funds futures now assign an 87% probability of a rate cut in September, supported by comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who argued for moving policy toward neutral. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, giving gold a tailwind.
Treasury yields have already begun to react. The 10-year yield slipped below 4.25%, its lowest in two weeks, further eroding the dollar’s relative appeal. As traders prepare for Friday’s PCE inflation print, a softer reading could ignite a breakout attempt above $3,440, while a hot print risks dragging bullion back into the mid-$3,300s.
Global Perspective: Gold in Other Currencies Hints at Strength
Gold’s rise is not limited to the U.S. dollar. In Europe, gold priced in euros touched €2,920, its highest in three weeks, while in the U.K. it surged to £2,525, both not far from record levels set earlier in the year during tariff turmoil. These moves confirm that the rally is broad-based, not just a reflection of U.S. dollar weakness.
Silver has also tracked higher, climbing above $39 per ounce, within 50 cents of a 14-year high. The gold-to-silver ratio now hovers near 87, indicating that silver’s industrial demand remains supportive even as investors continue to favor gold as the primary safe haven.
Goldman Sachs Sees $3,700 by Year-End
Looking beyond the summer, major institutions are now projecting higher prices. Goldman Sachs Research has issued a year-end 2025 target of $3,700 per ounce, citing sustained central bank accumulation and geopolitical uncertainty. From the January opening price of $2,633, this would mark a full-year gain of more than 40%.
Forecast: Gold Faces $3,500 Test With Bullish Momentum Intact
The current gold price forecast revolves around the $3,400 to $3,500 range. As long as gold holds above $3,360 support, the bias remains bullish with eyes firmly on a breakout. Clearing $3,500 would validate targets near $3,550 and $3,600, and potentially extend toward $3,800 if macro drivers align with technical momentum.
On the downside, dips toward $3,300 and $3,200 are likely to attract buyers, making it difficult to argue for a sustained bearish scenario unless global conditions shift dramatically. With central banks and ETFs steadily adding to holdings, structural demand continues to insulate gold from deeper declines.
At this stage, gold is best characterized as a buy on dips market. While resistance remains stubborn near $3,500, the combination of Fed uncertainty, falling yields, geopolitical risks, and persistent accumulation leaves the long-term trajectory pointed higher for XAU/USD.
