Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Holds Above $4,150 as Rate-Cut Bets, Liquidity Flows Drive Bullish Momentum

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Firm at $4,160 as Fed Cut Bets, Soft Data, and Global Tensions Reinforce Bullish Momentum

Gold (XAU/USD) remains steady near $4,160 per ounce, consolidating after a strong rally earlier this week that pushed the metal to a two-week high of $4,175. The move reflects growing conviction across global markets that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in December, a sentiment now priced at 85% probability according to CME data — sharply up from 39% a week ago. This pivot in expectations has weakened the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to 99.50, while U.S. Treasury yields have slid below 3.95%, reinforcing demand for non-yielding assets like gold.

XAU/USD Extends Weekly Gain as Yields Drop and Liquidity Expands

The yellow metal is up over 2% week-to-date, buoyed by soft U.S. labor data, easing inflation readings, and speculation surrounding President Donald Trump’s next Fed Chair nomination. Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett, currently the National Economic Council Director, is now the frontrunner to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026. Hassett, known for his dovish stance and alignment with Trump’s low-rate agenda, adds credibility to the narrative of extended monetary easing. That prospect has fueled capital rotation into gold, which benefits from lower real yields and liquidity expansion.

Global liquidity conditions are improving, with ARK Invest estimating a $70 billion liquidity return in recent weeks and an additional $300 billion expected to enter markets before year-end. These inflows, alongside falling Treasury balances, continue to underpin risk assets and precious metals. The combination of rate-cut expectations, dovish policy speculation, and increasing liquidity forms the structural foundation for gold’s resilience above $4,100.

Technical Landscape: Resistance Builds at $4,175–$4,245, Support Anchored at $4,100

Technically, XAU/USD trades within a defined upward channel, with support at $4,140–$4,100 holding after repeated tests. Bulls continue to eye the $4,211–$4,245 resistance band, coinciding with the November high and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the November 18 advance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints 58.7, showing bullish control but not yet overbought territory, while the MACD remains marginally above the zero line, suggesting fading but intact momentum.

Analysts at FOREX.com highlight the $4,200–$4,250 zone as a pivotal technical inflection: a breakout above could trigger a run toward $4,400, where no historical resistance exists. Conversely, a failure to hold above $4,140 would expose the $4,020–$4,040 area — the November support cluster. The 200-day EMA currently stands near $3,950, marking the structural floor of the yearly uptrend.

Regional Price Action: India Premiums and Dubai Discounts Widen

In India, 24K gold traded at ₹126,020 per 10 grams, down ₹330 (–0.26%) from yesterday, while 22K gold stood at ₹115,518. The spread between Indian and Dubai rates remains substantial — roughly 11.7%, as Dubai’s 24K rate sits at ₹112,816 per 10g. The higher Indian prices reflect persistent import duties and localized demand ahead of the December wedding season. The domestic pullback mirrors the slight cooling in global spot prices but does not negate the underlying bullish structure.

Macro Backdrop: Inflation Cooling, Safe-Haven Flows Rising

The latest U.S. jobless claims showed stabilization near 216,000, and the Core PCE Index eased to 2.6% YoY, confirming a gradual inflation retreat. That combination — softer inflation and subdued job data — has revived expectations of earlier and deeper Fed easing. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue to feed haven flows. Limited progress in U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine and renewed Japan–China maritime friction have both contributed to safe-haven demand, lifting bullion and silver simultaneously.

Cross-Commodity Strength: Silver, Platinum, and Oil Correlations

Silver (XAG/USD) has reclaimed the $52.90 per ounce level, its highest since 2023, up 3.2% this week, while platinum (XPT/USD) climbed 1.7%. The metal complex has benefited from a synchronized rebound, further amplified by a retreat in crude oil. WTI crude (CL=F) fell to $69.80 per barrel, a 0.6% decline, easing inflationary pressures and improving gold’s real-yield-adjusted attractiveness.

Market Sentiment: Thanksgiving Calm Masks Bullish Repricing

Holiday-thinned U.S. trading volume muted volatility, but order book data from COMEX indicates strong institutional absorption near $4,150, particularly from ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: IAU). Combined holdings of both funds increased by 11.2 tonnes this week, marking the first net inflow since early October.

Medium-Term Outlook: Structural Bullish Setup Remains Intact

The medium-term structure points to a bullish continuation. FOREX.com’s Michael Boutros identifies $4,172–$4,252 as the immediate pivot, with resistance breaks likely accelerating toward $4,356–$4,382. That region represents a technical confluence of the 100% Fibonacci extension and the record high-day close. On the downside, sustained losses below $4,000 would mark a correction phase but would not invalidate the broader uptrend as long as $3,930 holds.

Institutional and Central-Bank Activity

Central banks continue to accumulate aggressively, led by China, Turkey, and India. The People’s Bank of China added 12 tonnes in October, while Turkey increased reserves by 5 tonnes, maintaining upward pressure on global demand. The World Gold Council reports year-to-date official sector purchases exceeding 960 tonnes, a record pace reflecting distrust in fiat stability amid U.S. fiscal deficits exceeding $2.1 trillion.

Gold vs. U.S. Equities and Dollar Dynamics

Equities are stabilizing after multi-month highs, with the S&P 500 (SPX) at 6,812.61 and the Dow Jones (DJI) at 47,427.12, both posting moderate gains. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) rose 0.82% to 23,214.69, led by Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) up 1.37%, AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) up 3.93%, and Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) up 3.26%. Despite this equity strength, the Dollar Index remains weak, supporting gold’s relative performance. As equities stretch valuations and yields decline, gold increasingly reasserts its role as a macro hedge rather than a counter-trade.

Verdict: XAU/USD – Buy with Bullish Continuation Bias

With monetary easing expectations accelerating, liquidity expanding, and geopolitical risk underpinned, gold (XAU/USD) maintains a firm bullish bias. As long as support at $4,100–$4,050 holds, a test of $4,245–$4,400 is likely before mid-December. The technical, macro, and institutional backdrop all align toward upside continuation, establishing a Buy stance with a target range of $4,400–$4,450, while risk management should remain tight below $4,000. The metal’s ability to absorb profit-taking above $4,150 during thin liquidity sessions confirms sustained investor conviction that the 2025 gold bull market remains intact.

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