Gold Price Forecast - XAU/USD Steadies at $3,665 as Fed Cut, Central Bank Demand, and Mining Moves Drive XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds $3,665 as Fed Cut, Central Bank Demand, and Mining Shifts Collide

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,665.54 per ounce in spot markets and $3,702.30 on futures after reaching an intraday high of $3,706.90. The yellow metal is up nearly 40% year-to-date, securing its fifth straight weekly gain. The rally has been powered by aggressive central bank accumulation, renewed safe-haven flows, and a Federal Reserve pivot that reduced real yields while amplifying inflation risks. The market now watches whether bullion can clear resistance at $3,740–$3,800 to confirm the next bullish leg.

Fed Rate Cuts and Inflation Concerns Define Trajectory

The Fed’s 25 basis-point cut this week created a fresh bid for gold, though policymakers signaled caution. Futures markets price an additional quarter-point cut in October and another by December, with early 2026 also in play. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned of fragility in the labor market, but traders view extended easing against sticky inflation as fuel for higher bullion. This policy mix has revived investor demand for non-yielding assets, reinforcing gold’s momentum above $3,600.

Technical Landscape: $3,630 Support and $3,740–$3,800 Resistance

After being rejected above $3,700, gold retreated to test $3,630, where buying interest surged. The 21-day moving average at $3,415, the 50-day at $3,376, and the 100-day at $3,349 all show the uptrend is firmly intact. Momentum indicators point to consolidation, with RSI cooling from overbought levels at 75.89 and MACD signaling a near-term bearish cross. Analysts argue that a decisive daily close above $3,710 would unlock a push toward $3,740 and potentially $3,800, while failure to defend $3,630 could spark a correction to $3,580 or deeper toward $3,500.

Dollar Rebound Creates Short-Term Volatility

Gold faced a $70 pullback after the U.S. dollar briefly rebounded on stronger-than-expected jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. However, the recovery in the greenback remains capped, as markets are already pricing aggressive easing. Every dip toward $3,630 has been met with strong institutional demand, confirming gold’s resilience as the preferred hedge in this policy cycle.

Central Bank Purchases and Supply-Side Moves Reshape the Market

Emerging market central banks continue to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, purchasing bullion at an unprecedented pace. On the corporate side, Newmont divested its $439 million stake in Orla Mining, Minera Alamos raised $98 million for acquisitions, and Perpetua Resources secured federal approval for its Stibnite project, expected to supply 35% of U.S. antimony demand. These shifts highlight tightening supply dynamics across the mining sector that reinforce gold’s structural bull case.

Institutional Buy Zone Confirmed at $3,634–$3,636

Technical studies including Gann cycles and Square of 9 harmonics place heavy institutional positioning around $3,634–$3,636, aligning with Fibonacci retracements and long-term pivots. This convergence signals a powerful support zone where funds are accumulating. Gold futures oscillated between $3,660.5 lows and $3,744 highs, underscoring the reversion-to-mean trade, but institutional bids at these key levels strengthen the bullish outlook.

Rotation Toward Silver and Platinum Adds Context

Silver surged 2.2% to $42.76 and remains on track to test $45.00, while platinum advanced 1.7%, breaking a 17-year trendline. The gold-to-silver ratio continues to contract, indicating silver’s late-cycle outperformance. Still, central banks and sovereign funds show unwavering preference for gold allocations, making XAU/USD the anchor of precious metals portfolios while silver and platinum serve as leveraged companions.

Global Forecasts Stretch Toward $4,000 and Beyond

Deutsche Bank projects gold averaging $4,000/oz by 2026, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a 37% increase from current levels, and Swiss Asia Capital sees a 229% surge by 2032. India’s bullion association estimates domestic 10-gram prices could reach ₹361,000 within seven years. With XAU/USD already delivering a 40% gain in 2025, each consolidation phase has increasingly been treated as a buying opportunity.

Mining Equities Ride the Wave With Explosive Returns

Gold miners have outpaced bullion, with the GDX index up 110% YTD and junior gold miners (GDXJ) surging 112%. Companies like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) hit $150+ far earlier than projected, with analysts warning of eventual pullbacks but confirming the accelerated bull phase. The GDX-to-gold ratio still sits below historical peaks, suggesting miners remain undervalued relative to the metal, and further upside is possible once ratio resistance at 0.021 breaks.

Verdict on XAU/USD: Buy Dips With $4,000 in Play

Gold remains supported by a trifecta of Fed easing, record central bank demand, and tightening mining supply. The structural bull market has redefined price floors, with $3,630–$3,636 now seen as the institutional accumulation zone. As long as XAU/USD holds above that threshold, dips into $3,600 are considered buying opportunities with short-term targets at $3,740–$3,800 and medium-term forecasts pointing toward $4,000 by year-end.

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