Macro Momentum Squeezes XAU/USD Under $3,300
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) slid 1 percent to $3,292.75 by mid-morning ET, marking the first break below $3,300 in four weeks. U.S. employment surprises and second-quarter GDP expanding at a 3.0 percent annualized pace reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain its 4.25–4.50 percent policy band. The upside surprise in July private payrolls—104,000 jobs added versus consensus for 64,000—and a beat in Q2 GDP dampened gold’s safe-haven bid, sending futures down to $3,345.30 even as they remained elevated relative to spot.
Bearish Flag Formation Targets $3,245
Technical charts on the 4-hour timeframe reveal a descending pennant after prices failed to hold above the June-July uptrend. The resulting bearish flag projects a measured move toward $3,245, coinciding with the June 30 low. Near-term rebounds into the $3,345–$3,360 zone face stiff resistance at the flag’s upper trendline. Only a convincing break above $3,360 would invalidate the bearish pattern and refocus attention on the July 22 high near $3,380.
Consolidation in the $3,320–$3,330 Band Ahead of Fed
Traders have largely parked positions, allowing XAU/USD to oscillate between $3,320 and $3,330 as they await today’s FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference. The dollar’s modest retreat from a one-month peak limits further gold upside, while trade optimism and the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates cap rallies. With the market pricing roughly 97 percent odds of no rate change, any hawkish nuance could trigger another leg lower toward critical support.
Gold Futures Rally to $3,383 Highlights Underlying Strength
Gold futures on COMEX opened at $3,383.10, climbing 1.8 percent from Tuesday’s close and setting this week’s high. Despite a 1.4 percent weekly decline, the contract is up 3.6 percent over the past month and a remarkable 42.1 percent year-over-year. The strength reflects continued central bank buying—spot ETFs now hold over 160 billion USD in assets under management—and a growing view that gold remains a key hedge against geopolitical friction and potential dollar weakness.
Battleground Between $3,200 and $3,500 Defines the Near Term
Gold’s summer range stretches from $3,200 on the downside to $3,500 on the upside, with both 50-day and 200-day EMAs clustering near the $3,200 pivot. A break beyond $3,500 would fulfill the range’s upper measured move (roughly $300 above the mid-range), while a drop below $3,200 would open the door for deeper retracements toward $3,000. Historical cyclicality suggests that extended consolidations often precede powerful directional moves, and gold’s multi-year bull trend remains intact despite short-term volatility.
Central Bank Demand and Safe-Haven Characteristics
Institutional flow data show over 110,000 oz of net inflows into physical Gold ETFs last quarter, driven by official sector purchases and hedge-fund allocations. Unlike mining equities, gold’s intrinsic zero-counterparty risk and proven inflation hedge underlie its appeal. Even as U.S. tariff tensions ebb and trade optimism surfaces, gold benefits from record M2 money supply of $22.02 trillion—a 4.5 percent year-on-year expansion that traditionally fuels precious-metal demand.
Tactical Positioning: Sell Into Strength, Buy the Dips
Given the confluence of solid U.S. data, bearish chart patterns and Fed “hold” odds, a tactical bearish bias is warranted into $3,345–$3,360 supply. A decisive break below $3,300 paves the way for a test of $3,245, where measured support and historical lows converge. Conversely, deeper pullbacks toward $3,200 represent a high-probability accumulation zone, aligning with the long-term uptrend and central bank demand.
Final Thoughts - Lean into short positions on rallies approaching the upper flag resistance and hold off on new longs until dips below $3,300, progressively accumulating toward $3,245 for a potential rebound.
