Nasdaq:INTC rallies to $23.02 amid CEO strategy shift
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is staging a sharp recovery after plunging to multi-year lows earlier this year. Shares have rebounded to $23.02, rising over 22% from April’s bottom at $18.88, as traders begin re-rating the stock on expectations that CEO Pat Gelsinger’s successor, Lip-Bu Tan, will accelerate Intel’s foundry transformation. The stock has reclaimed its 30-week EMA for the first time since mid-2023, with weekly RSI recovering to 49.2, suggesting growing bullish divergence as volume expands above 35 million shares intraday.
Insiders accumulate Intel as buyback signals strengthen
Insider transactions have quietly turned net positive in June, with multiple executives increasing their exposure through direct purchases and options-based hedging. Intel’s insider transaction log shows $3.2 million in net insider buys over the past 60 days. Notably, CFO David Zinsner purchased over 45,000 shares near the $21 level, and several VP-level executives added shares using 10b5-1 plans — a rare vote of confidence following disappointing Q1 earnings. At the same time, Intel has resumed stock repurchases under its previously suspended $10 billion program, soaking up float while retail exits.
Layoffs and strategic exits clear path for AI and foundry reallocation
More than 1,200 layoffs were confirmed in Intel’s Oregon and California hubs in Q2, cutting deep into legacy chip design and networking divisions. Senior VP Randhir Thakur, formerly head of the Foundry Services group, exited in June — signaling structural change at the top. These exits follow Intel's broader capital reallocation plan, shifting R&D away from underperforming units and toward high-margin AI compute chips and external foundry support. This mirrors moves by rivals AMD and TSMC, but Intel is attempting to leapfrog via vertical integration in packaging and fabrication.
SoftBank deal and ARM momentum reposition Intel in AI race
Intel’s confirmation of joint AI compute deployments with SoftBank's ARM-based platforms marks a pivotal shift in positioning. Intel's Gaudi 3 AI chips, paired with custom ARM cores, will be deployed across SoftBank data centers in Japan and Southeast Asia starting Q4. This move not only competes directly with NVIDIA’s H100 stack but positions Intel to benefit from the AI capex wave outside North America. CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s long-standing ties with SoftBank (from his Cadence and Walden days) were instrumental in securing the deal, giving Intel geopolitical leverage in Asian markets where U.S. export restrictions limit NVIDIA’s flexibility.
Technical structure builds case for breakout above $25.80
INTC’s daily chart shows higher lows since May, forming an ascending triangle with resistance at $25.80. The MACD is printing sustained green histograms and RSI has pushed past the neutral zone, now at 58.4. Key levels to watch include $24.40 as near-term resistance, with $27.50 as a key retracement level from the January breakdown. Options open interest is stacked at $25 and $30 strikes for the July and August expiries, and any close above $25.80 could trigger gamma squeeze flows. However, support must hold above $21.90 to keep the bullish thesis intact.
Intel earnings on July 24 may confirm or break the narrative
All eyes are now on July 24, when Intel reports Q2 results. Analysts are projecting EPS of $0.11 on revenue of $12.8 billion, both down sharply YoY. But the market is less concerned with backward-looking results — it wants guidance. If Intel raises its full-year revenue above $55 billion or confirms stronger-than-expected AI chip volume, shares could explode toward $30–$33 quickly. Conversely, weak margin updates or further capex warnings could send INTC back toward $20.
Verdict: INTC is a speculative buy with $30 upside and $21 downside risk
At $23.02, Intel is not a value play — it's a speculative restructuring story. Insider buying, strategic exits, and geopolitical alignment (SoftBank, ARM) are aligning for a second-half breakout. The technical base is firming, and institutional positioning is rebuilding through options and block flows. INTC is a Buy here, targeting $27.50–$30.00, but with tight stops below $21.90. A clear break above $25.80 should unlock the next leg toward resistance near $33, last seen in early 2024.
