IREN Stock Price Forecast - IREN Explodes to Record High, Analysts Targets $140

NASDAQ:IREN Surges to $75.73 as Microsoft Partnership Sparks Historic AI Expansion

Iren Ltd (NASDAQ:IREN) soared to an all-time high of $75.73, marking an 11.32% gain on the day and a 613.87% increase year-over-year, driven by a groundbreaking $9.7 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). The stock, which opened at $64.38, rallied aggressively through the session before stabilizing near $67.63, as investors digested the scale of the agreement and its implications for the AI cloud ecosystem. The five-year partnership positions Iren as a cornerstone provider of AI compute capacity, giving Microsoft access to NVIDIA GB300 GPUs—a move expected to address Azure’s supply constraints and secure capacity for large-scale AI deployment. The contract includes a 20% prepayment, credited to later years, strengthening Iren’s liquidity and funding capacity for expansion.

Microsoft’s $9.7B AI Cloud Deal Redefines Iren’s Market Position

The $9.7 billion agreement effectively transforms Iren from a niche data center and crypto infrastructure company into one of the leading “neocloud” providers in the high-performance computing (HPC) space. Under the deal, Microsoft gains direct access to Iren’s vertically integrated AI platform, built on the NVIDIA GB300 architecture. Deployment will occur in phased stages through 2026 at Iren’s Texas Childress campus, which already boasts 750MW of power capacity. A complementary $5.8 billion supply agreement with Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) secures the necessary GPUs and ancillary equipment, ensuring Iren’s delivery capability aligns with Microsoft’s aggressive expansion plan to double its data center capacity within two years.

Financial Momentum: 453% Net Income Growth and Expanding Margins

Financially, Iren’s Q2 2025 results underscore its transformation. The company reported revenue of $180.64 million, a 223.31% year-over-year increase, and net income of $95.55 million, soaring 453.47%. Profit margins expanded to 52.89%, up over 209% YoY, reflecting improved operational efficiency and higher-value contracts. Earnings per share (EPS) jumped 234% to $0.21, while EBITDA surged 496.85% to $77.24 million. The balance sheet shows $564.53 million in cash, total assets of $2.94 billion, and total equity of $1.82 billion, while liabilities ballooned to $1.12 billion due to increased CapEx linked to AI infrastructure investment. Despite the leverage, the company’s return on assets (1.4%) and return on capital (1.52%) remain positive, signaling disciplined deployment of capital despite rapid scaling.

Texas Expansion: Building the Foundation for Hyperscale Growth

The upcoming expansion in Childress, Texas, is pivotal to Iren’s next phase of growth. The deal with Microsoft and Dell will enable Iren to construct new liquid-cooled data centers supporting 200MW of critical IT load, with completion expected by 2026. This will push Iren’s total secured power portfolio to 3GW, giving it one of the largest AI-capable infrastructure footprints globally. Funding will come from a mix of customer prepayments, operating cash flows, and proceeds from its $1 billion convertible senior note issuance, which was oversubscribed and increased to $1.125 billion after strong institutional demand.

Strategic Transformation: From Bitcoin Miner to AI Infrastructure Powerhouse

Founded in 2018, Iren initially focused on Bitcoin mining, operating across Australia, Canada, and the U.S. However, the pivot toward AI cloud computing has redefined its business model and valuation narrative. With a market capitalization of $18.29 billion and a P/E ratio of 172.79, the company now trades at premium multiples similar to early-stage AI infrastructure leaders. This transformation mirrors peers like CoreWeave and Applied Digital (NASDAQ:APLD), both of which evolved from crypto operations to AI data services. Analysts now categorize Iren among the “AI neoclouds” — infrastructure enablers bridging hyperscaler demand and GPU availability.

Analyst Reactions: Price Targets Surge to $142 on Long-Term Outlook

The Street has responded with optimism. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $142 from $100, maintaining an Overweight rating, calling the Microsoft partnership a “game-changing anchor tenant deal.” Bernstein Research projects the collaboration could generate $500 million in annual AI cloud revenue by 2026, further validating Iren’s scaling potential. Despite lofty valuations, analysts argue that Iren’s vertically integrated model and strategic partnerships make it uniquely positioned to capitalize on the ongoing AI arms race. However, H.C. Wainwright downgraded Iren to Sell with a $45 target, citing “execution risk” and “irrational exuberance” following the parabolic rally.

Market Reaction and Technical Structure: New Highs but Caution Ahead

Technically, NASDAQ:IREN is trading near uncharted territory after touching its $75.73 all-time high, with volume exceeding 43 million shares. The previous close at $60.75 confirms a breakout pattern, but analysts note potential overextension. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests overheated conditions, while short-term consolidation around $65–$70 is likely before the next leg higher. The 50-day moving average near $48 provides a critical support reference, while a sustained hold above $67 confirms bullish continuation. Despite short-term volatility, the 1-year chart reveals an 830% gain in six months, signaling sustained institutional accumulation

Operational Funding and Balance Sheet Dynamics

Iren’s financing activity reflects strategic foresight. The company generated $407.09 million in operating cash flow, a 204% increase YoY, while investing cash outflows totaled -$674.48 million as it accelerated GPU acquisitions. Financing inflows reached $646.27 million, up 43% YoY, resulting in a net cash increase of $380.19 million. While free cash flow (-$394.70 million) remains negative due to heavy CapEx, analysts interpret this as front-loaded investment to capture multi-year AI contracts. The company’s effective tax rate stands at -2.97%, highlighting the benefit of deferred tax assets amid expansion.

Competitive Positioning in the AI Infrastructure Race

In the broader market context, Iren’s deal comes as hyperscalers face a GPU supply crunch. Microsoft aims to boost AI compute capacity by 80% in 2025 and double it by 2027, while NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) continues to dominate the chip supply chain. Iren’s unique ability to secure Dell’s $5.8 billion GPU order provides a defensive moat against supply volatility. The partnership also aligns with Microsoft’s strategy to diversify its supplier base amid U.S. export restrictions on high-end chips to China, creating long-term stability for both parties.

Earnings Outlook and Market Implications

Iren reports its fiscal Q1 2026 results later this week, with Wall Street forecasting $242 million in revenue and $0.14 EPS, up sharply from -$0.16 a year earlier. Analysts expect continued margin expansion as Microsoft prepayments are recognized and GPU deployments accelerate through 2026. Should results exceed expectations, it may trigger another price surge beyond the $80–$85 resistance zone.

Verdict: BUY – Structural Bull Market With Target Range $120–$140

Based on current fundamentals, financial performance, and strategic positioning, NASDAQ:IREN is rated BUY. The company’s multi-billion-dollar partnerships with Microsoft and Dell, coupled with explosive revenue growth and balance sheet strength, establish a robust runway for future appreciation. While short-term volatility around $65–$75 may persist, the medium-term target lies between $120 and $140, reflecting potential upside exceeding 85% as AI cloud revenues compound through 2026.

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