IVV ETF Price at $690: Can S&P 500 Hold Up as AI Jitters and Tariffs Bite?

IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) Price, Macro Friction And AI Shock

Tariffs, Supreme Court Ruling And The Setup For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) trades around $690.51, up 0.73% on the day, with a session range of $683.06–$691.39 and a 52-week band of $484.00–$700.96. That leaves the fund sitting roughly one to two percent below its all-time high near $700.96, effectively pricing in a benign macro outcome while the policy backdrop is anything but. The Supreme Court invalidated the use of emergency economic powers for tariffs, forcing any new regime back through Congress. Equities initially reacted positively, with S&P 500 proxies rising around 0.7% and the Dow and Nasdaq also moving higher. Within hours, the administration reimposed a fresh 10% global tariff and quickly pushed the rhetoric toward 15%, turning what looked like relief into a re-branded tax on trade. For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) that matters in three ways. Export-heavy names in industrials, machinery and autos still face structurally higher input costs and headline risk. Consumer discretionary exposure inside the S&P 500 gets partial relief from arbitrary tariff shocks but remains capped by this new 10–15% layer that compresses margins at the retail and import end. Long-duration equities face an inflationary nudge from tariffs, offset by the Court’s brake on unilateral escalation. The cross-asset tape confirms that markets see a nuanced regime rather than a clean win. Long-dated Treasuries rallied, with a popular 20+ year bond ETF trading near $89–90 and above key moving averages, a sign that demand for duration is building as a hedge. Silver jumped more than 13% in a single week, copper producers like FCX gained close to 4%, and independent power producers and utilities rallied on expectations of enduring AI-driven electricity demand. The conclusion for IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) is straightforward. Tariffs did not disappear; they were formalized and partially constrained. The index can trade near highs, but the tariff overhang limits how far valuations can stretch for the most trade-sensitive names and argues against extrapolating a smooth melt-up from $690 to new highs without accepting significant interim volatility.

AI Panic, Software Derating And Concentration Risk Inside IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

The more dangerous pressure point for IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) is the repricing of software and AI-exposed megacaps that dominate the top of the S&P 500. Information technology accounts for roughly 33% of the index, with communication services adding another 10.2%, so more than 40% of IVV’s weight is effectively levered to cloud, platforms, advertising, devices and AI narratives. When that complex gets downgraded, the ETF cannot escape. Over the last year a broad, cap-weighted software basket has fallen around 25–30%, yet still trades near 34–35x earnings and about 6.3x book value, versus sector medians closer to 30x and 3.5x. Growth decelerated between mid-2021 and late-2022 as pandemic pull-forward faded, but the multiple compression is hitting hard only now, in 2025–2026, as Wall Street overlays a new AI disruption story on top of an old slowdown. Breadth is weak. In recent weeks, software’s one-week performance flipped positive, but only about 40–45% of constituents printed gains, a classic narrow bounce sponsored by a handful of large names rather than a healthy, broad uptrend. At the single-stock level, AI headlines are triggering double-digit drawdowns. A major IT and mainframe vendor dropped roughly 13% in one session when an AI lab announced a tool aimed at automating legacy code analysis and security, threatening part of its consulting franchise. Legal-tech and information-services names saw similar pressure when AI assistants targeted contract review and compliance work. Cybersecurity and cloud software have also been hit on fears that AI-enhanced automation will compress their pricing power. Overlaying this, a widely shared scenario piece projected a 2028 world with unemployment above 10%, an S&P 500 retreat from a hypothetical 8,000 peak, and an 11% slide in high-priced housing markets such as San Francisco as white-collar jobs vanish. Even though the authors framed it as a thought experiment, the market has used it to justify further de-risking in long-duration software and services. For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV), the implication is that the heaviest weights sit exactly where valuation, growth and narrative risk overlap, which increases downside asymmetry if the AI scare extends or earnings revisions lag reality.

Bitcoin, Gold And ETF Flows: Cross-Asset Signals For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

Flow data across Bitcoin and gold ETFs provides a clear read on how much risk appetite really remains for broad equity exposure like IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV). Spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track for a fourth consecutive month of net outflows. Since October 2025, their combined reserves have dropped by approximately 85,000 BTC, with total holdings sliding from around 1.36 million BTC to roughly 1.26 million BTC and aggregate net asset value falling from about $170 billion to near $84.3 billion. Cumulative net inflow peaked around $63 billion and now sits closer to $54 billion. Between February 12 and 19, seven-session flows show net outflows of about 11,042 BTC, including a single day with 6,120 BTC leaving funds, roughly $416 million at contemporaneous prices, and consecutive sessions with 1,520 BTC and 1,980 BTC out. Only one session in that window delivered a meaningful inflow around 5,900 BTC. The flagship IBIT ETF now trades near $36.53, barely above a year-low around $35.30 and far from its $71.82 high. Its on-chain holdings have fallen from roughly 806,000 BTC to 759,000 BTC, a 6% decline, while a peer product dropped from 213,000 BTC to 186,000 BTC, a 12.6% reduction. Spot BTC itself has fallen from highs near $126,000 to around $63,000, roughly a 50% drawdown, with monthly losses above 19% and year-to-date weakness around 27–28%. By contrast, gold ETFs have absorbed capital. Ninety-day rolling inflows into gold funds hit about $30 billion by April 2025 and peaked closer to $36 billion in October 2025, at the same time Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative, touching around –$2 billion on a 90-day basis. In January 2026 alone, gold attracted nearly $29 billion, and by mid-February inflows were still tracking near $21 billion, with Bitcoin ETF flows remaining under water. Physically, gold trades above $5,000 per ounce, with April futures opening near $5,247.50 after a prior close around $5,225.60, for a roughly 79% year-on-year gain even after cooling from a near 95% peak. Pullbacks of 0.6–1.6% intraday have consistently held the $5,000 band, and technicians now watch $5,150 as a pivot and $5,200–5,300 as immediate resistance. Global demand reached about 5,002 tonnes in 2025, with investment demand above 2,100 tonnes and central banks buying approximately 863 tonnes. Retail markets echo the story, with India quoting around 15,154 rupees per gram after a dip from 15,341, and 176,765 rupees per tola versus 178,932 the day before. For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV), this pattern matters. Capital is not leaving markets wholesale; it is rotating from high-beta exposures like BTC into classic hedges and income. Every dollar that moves into GLD, SLV, copper or power producers is a dollar not chasing S&P 500 multiples higher at record levels. That rotation constrains how much incremental demand can support IVV when it already sits near $690 with the index at historical highs.

Late-Cycle Macro, Real Yields And Valuation Risk For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

The policy and rate backdrop reinforces the idea that IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) is trading in a late-cycle setting rather than at the front edge of a new expansion. The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening and stopped shrinking its balance sheet, but the stance remains tight. The federal funds rate still exceeds the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, keeping financial conditions restrictive. The nominal 10-year yield trades near 4.1%, while the real 10-year sits around 1.7–1.8%, firmly positive. That means investors can earn a risk-free return above inflation simply by buying long bonds, raising the opportunity cost of parking capital in low-yielding or non-yielding assets, including much of the high-growth cohort at the top of the S&P. Historically, strong and persistent inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and into high-beta equities came only after real yields rolled over or a clear easing cycle began. Neither condition is present. Spot BTC funds have reduced reserves by roughly 87,000 BTC since November 2025, with about 15,000 BTC leaving in February alone, and cumulative net inflows into those products have stalled at around $54 billion after peaking near $63 billion. Strategists describe the current environment as a “restrictive digestion” phase, where both equities and crypto work off the excesses of the prior bull leg under tighter money. In that context, broad indices like the S&P 500 and its proxy IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) can appear resilient at the headline level, but beneath the surface leadership narrows, dispersion increases, and rotations accelerate. With real yields positive and valuations extended, upside from $690–700 on the ETF is capped unless earnings growth or policy shifts deliver a clear new tailwind.

Price Structure, Pullback Zones And Scenarios For IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

At $690.51, IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) stands about 42% above its 52-week low at $484.00 and less than two percent below its record near $700.96. The path higher since late 2024 has been characterized by shallow, bought-on-dip setbacks rather than proper corrections. Macro and equity commentators now openly flag the risk of a ~10% drawdown in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year, followed by a V-shaped recovery. Translating that into ETF terms implies a pullback from the current $690–700 area into roughly the $620–630 band. The likely support structure for IVV looks tiered. A soft initial zone sits around $660–670, where recent breakouts and shorter-term moving averages cluster and where dip-buyers have previously stepped in. A more significant demand belt lies closer to $620–640, roughly 7–10% below current pricing, which aligns with the scale of correction some macro views project and with prior consolidation regions. A deeper, but still bull-market-compatible reset would target the high $500s, erasing a large part of the 2025–2026 vertical ascent while preserving the long-term, multi-year uptrend. At today’s levels there is virtually no built-in discount for additional software rerating, slower earnings growth, prolonged tariff negotiations in Congress, or further rotation into gold, commodities and bonds. That makes aggressive new buying at $690+ a low-reward, high-risk entry from a pure risk-return standpoint.

Sector Stress And Support Pillars Inside IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV)

Sector composition explains why IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) can hold near highs even as parts of the market look fragile. Technology and communication services, which together make up over 40% of the S&P 500, carry the bulk of the AI disruption narrative and the valuation risk. Software in particular has lost almost 29% on a cap-weighted basis over the past year, but still trades on elevated earnings and book multiples, with breadth weak and multiple single-name drawdowns in the teenagers on AI headlines. This cluster presents the highest downside risk if the market continues to question the durability of SaaS and the impact of AI agents on seat-based business models. Consumer discretionary holdings are caught between tariff mechanics and domestic demand. The Supreme Court decision reduces the shock risk from sudden emergency tariffs, but the new 10–15% regime still squeezes retailers, importers and autos. High-profile names like TSLA face their own structural challenges as EV subsidies are removed and competition intensifies, which dulls the sensitivity of IVV’s discretionary sleeve to any short-term tariff relief. Industrials and selected energy names offer some ballast. Aerospace and defense clients are not rushing to replace core ERP or manufacturing systems with AI-coded tools; in many cases, digitalization programs launched in 2021–2022 have been slowed or cancelled for reasons unrelated to AI, such as over-optimistic projections and budget fatigue. Those segments anchor IVV with real-economy exposure that is less sensitive to AI narratives. Financials, particularly large U.S. banks and North American institutions tied to trade flows, continue to generate attractive net interest income and fee revenue and have weathered the tariff volatility relatively well. Defensive groups in healthcare, staples and utilities strengthen the ETF’s resilience. Healthcare and personal products have already bounced into the tariff ruling, reflecting demand for stable cash flows. Utilities and independent power producers stand to benefit from sustained electricity demand for AI infrastructure, bolstering the defensive side of IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV). The net result is an ETF with heavy exposure to the most stressed growth areas but still anchored by defensives and cash-generative cyclicals.

Stance On IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) At $690: Hold, Not A Fresh Buy Zone

Given the price, flows, macro and sector mix, IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) at $690.51 lines up as a Hold, not a fresh, aggressive buy. The fund sits within touching distance of its all-time high while real 10-year yields around 1.7–1.8% make long bonds a credible alternative. Its largest weights live in technology and communication services, precisely where AI-driven repricing, software derating and earnings-multiple risk are concentrated. Cross-asset flow data show capital moving from high-beta vehicles like Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen about $7.2 billion in outflows and a reduction of roughly 87,000 BTC in reserves since late 2025, into gold, silver, copper and power producers, where inflows have reached $30–36 billion on rolling 90-day windows. That is not the footprint of a market eager to pay ever-higher prices for broad equity beta at record levels. At the same time, IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV) still owns high-quality cash generators in healthcare, staples, financials, industrials and utilities, which makes liquidating long-term positions unnecessary and inefficient. The rational positioning is to maintain existing exposure as a core allocation, avoid adding size near $690–700, and treat any decisive 7–12% pullback into the low- to mid-$600s as a more attractive entry window, particularly if it occurs alongside stabilizing software breadth and a plateau or decline in real yields. Until that kind of reset appears, rallies near the highs are better used to tidy risk and rebalance than to chase incremental upside in IVV ETF (NYSEARCA:IVV).

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