Markets Edge Higher as Tech, Tariffs, and Fed Tensions Collide

Markets Edge Higher as Tech, Tariffs, and Fed Tensions Collide

Nasdaq (^IXIC), S&P 500 (^GSPC), and Dow (^DJI) React to Tariff Shift, Earnings, and Fed Cues

Tariff Certainty Drives S&P 500 (^GSPC) to Record Territory The S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% to another record high, closing at 6,389.73, as clarity around President Trump's EU tariff deal lifted investor sentiment. The 15% baseline tariff agreement erased fears of a 30% levy, stabilizing market volatility. Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) surged 0.3% to an all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) hovered near unchanged levels at 44,891.48.

Stoltzfus Ups Target, Expects 11% S&P Rally Oppenheimer strategist John Stoltzfus hiked his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,100, citing improving trade clarity. He bases this on $275 EPS and a forward P/E of 25.8, up from the current 22.4x. This projection implies a third straight year of 20%+ gains.

Big Tech in Focus: MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, META Report This Week

Earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META) are expected to shape this week's market tone. Investors will zero in on AI CapEx commentary after Alphabet (GOOGL) raised its 2025 guidance to $85B. With 34% of the S&P 500 having reported, EPS growth is pacing at 6.4%, up from 5%.

Fed Decision Looms with September Cut in Sight The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25% to 4.5%, but dissents are emerging. Governor Christopher Waller may vote to cut early, citing softening labor and temporary inflation from tariffs. Markets price in a 64% chance of a September rate cut. All eyes are on Powell's press conference.

Jobs, GDP, PCE, and JOLTS Line Up in Packed Macro Week 

Key data includes:

• GDP Q2: Est. +2.3%, after Q1's -0.5%

• Jobs: Est. +102K, Unemp. up to 4.2%

• PCE inflation: Core steady at 2.7%, headline up to 2.5%

• JOLTS, ADP, Jobless Claims all feed into Friday's NFP.

LNG, Defense, and Semis Surge on EU Trade Pact

The $750B EU energy commitment sparked gains across:

• Cheniere Energy (LNG): +3%

• NextDecade (NEXT): +1%

• Venture Global (VG): +5% Defense names also rallied:

• Lockheed Martin (LMT): +1.3%

• Kratos Defense (KTOS): +2.7% Meanwhile, ASML (ASML) rose 3% after relief on chip export fears.

Opendoor (OPEN) Slips on Meme Volatility, Meeting Delay Opendoor (OPEN)

slide 2% as it delayed a key shareholder meeting, spooking investors amid speculation-fueled gains (+365% in July). A reverse stock split is now slated for discussion on August 27.

Nike (NKE), Cisco (CSCO), PagerDuty (PD) Diverge on Analyst Moves

• Nike (NKE) jumped +4% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight, hiking PT to $93.

• Cisco (CSCO) dropped over 1% after Evercore downgraded it to In Line, citing priced-in AI optimism.

• PagerDuty (PD) spiked +6% after reports of sale interest.

Mega Caps and Meme Stocks Both in Play While Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) gear up for earnings, the retail crowd remains fixated on names like GoPro (GPRO) and Krispy Kreme (DNUT). Short squeezes continue to influence tape action.

Inflation, Fed Policy, and Earnings Season Define Market Momentum This week is a test of how much good news the market has already priced in. With valuations stretched (S&P 500 P/E at 22.4x vs 10-year average of 18.4x), continued earnings beats and soft inflation data are critical.

Verdict: HOLD on S&P 500, CAUTIOUS BULLISH on Nasdaq

Remain neutral on S&P 500 at these levels unless earnings continue to justify premium valuations. The Nasdaq may extend gains if AI momentum holds through the MSFT-AMZN-AAPL earnings cluster. Watch Friday’s jobs report and Powell’s tone for short-term catalysts.

That's TradingNEWS