MercadoLibre Stock (MELI) at $2,179 Outpaces Etsy Stock (ETSY) at $70 With 35% Growth vs Flat Sales

MercadoLibre Stock (NASDAQ:MELI) vs Etsy Stock (NASDAQ:ETSY): Diverging Growth Stories in E-Commerce

NASDAQ:MELI Dominates Latin America With Scale and Financial Flywheel

MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) trades at $2,179, down 6.7% on the session, with a market capitalization of $118.5 billion. Despite recent weakness, the stock remains up 28.3% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500’s 14.1% return. Over the last three years, MELI has delivered an extraordinary 163.6% return, underscoring its dominance across Latin America’s e-commerce and fintech landscape. The company reported trailing twelve-month revenue of $24.1 billion with net income of $2.05 billion, reflecting an 8.5% net margin. Diluted EPS stands at $38.33, with analysts expecting a surge to $66.81 in 2026, nearly doubling in two years.

MELI’s model is a hybrid of Amazon, PayPal, and eBay, integrating marketplace, logistics, and digital payments. MercadoPago, its fintech arm, counts 68 million monthly active users, rivaling Nubank’s 123 million, and manages a growing $9 billion loan book. While this expansion accelerates user monetization, provisions for doubtful accounts rose 57% year-over-year to $690 million, highlighting rising credit risk. MELI’s return on equity is an eye-catching 43.8%, supported by operating leverage and ecosystem stickiness.

Valuation remains elevated, with a trailing P/E of 61x and forward P/E of 35x, compared to Amazon’s ~33x. With revenue projected to grow 35.7% in 2025 and another 26.7% in 2026, the premium reflects confidence in MELI’s ability to compound growth at scale. Price targets average $2,897, with a bullish high of $3,500. Real-time market moves for MELI can be tracked here.

Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) Struggles With Marketplace Weakness Despite AI Catalysts

Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), by contrast, trades at $70.49, up 6.2% on the day, with a market capitalization of $7.0 billion—just 6% the size of MELI. Over the past 12 months, the stock has swung violently between $40.05 and $75.77, reflecting both optimism over AI integration and skepticism about shrinking user engagement. Q2 2025 gross merchandise sales declined 4.8% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, with active buyers down 4.6% and seller counts falling 18%. Despite this erosion, revenue grew 3.8% to $672.7 million, driven by higher monetization. Etsy increased its take rate to 24% from 22%, squeezing sellers but boosting top-line stability.

Profitability remains intact. Adjusted EBITDA reached $169 million, a 25% margin, while Etsy holds $1.41 billion in cash and generated $594.7 million in free cash flow. EPS is forecast to rise 11.5% in 2025 and 18.3% in 2026, aided by aggressive buybacks that reduced shares outstanding by nearly 10% in a year. However, revenue growth projections are weak, with analysts expecting just 1–2% annual growth into 2026. Price targets average $58.69, implying downside from current levels, though estimates range widely from $31 to $81.

Recent catalysts include Etsy’s NYSE listing transfer on October 13 and a partnership with OpenAI to integrate instant checkout into ChatGPT, which has 700 million weekly active users. These initiatives may lift visibility and conversion, but analysts warn that structural issues—shrinking buyer and seller engagement—could offset tech-driven gains. Short interest stands at 28.3% of float, underscoring investor skepticism. Insider and institutional activity for ETSY can be tracked here.

Head-to-Head: NASDAQ:MELI vs NASDAQ:ETSY

The contrast between MELI and ETSY could not be starker. MercadoLibre operates at scale, with $24 billion in revenue, 35%+ growth, and a fintech engine driving deeper monetization across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. It trades at premium multiples but with earnings projected to grow 49% in 2026, the valuation is supported by fundamentals. Etsy, on the other hand, has a far smaller footprint with $2.8 billion in revenue, low single-digit growth, and heavy reliance on take-rate increases rather than organic engagement. While Etsy has catalysts in AI and recommerce via Depop, the structural headwinds in its core marketplace suggest it will remain range-bound unless it can reverse declining buyers and sellers.

Institutional sentiment reflects this divergence. MELI enjoys strong “Strong Buy” consensus ratings from Wall Street, with Cantor Fitzgerald setting a $2,900 target, while ETSY holds a consensus “Hold” with analysts projecting 16% downside from current levels. MELI also benefits from macro tailwinds—Latin America’s underpenetrated digital economy—whereas Etsy is struggling in a mature U.S. e-commerce market with slowing discretionary spending.

Investment Verdict: MELI Buy, ETSY Hold

Based on valuation, growth trajectory, and market positioning, MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI) is a Buy. Despite volatility, the company’s ecosystem advantage, fintech scale, and double-digit revenue growth through 2026 justify accumulation at current levels with upside toward $3,000–$3,500. Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) is a Hold, reflecting its profitability and cash flow strength but weighed down by flat revenue, shrinking engagement, and high short interest. Unless AI integration and NYSE relisting materially alter its trajectory, Etsy lacks the structural growth drivers to compete with peers or match MELI’s compounding potential.

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