Meta Stock Price Forecast: $755 Price, AI Upside, and $1.9T Market Cap

NASDAQ:META Trades at $755 With $1.9 Trillion Market Cap

Meta Platforms NASDAQ:META closed at $755.59, rising 0.62% on September 12, 2025, with a market capitalization of $1.898 trillion. The stock is trading below its 52-week peak of $796.25, having delivered a 44.25% one-year return and 29.26% YTD performance, far ahead of the S&P 500’s 17.67% and 11.95%. Its trailing P/E ratio of 27.4 and forward multiple of 25.6 suggest Meta trades at a discount to peers like Apple and Microsoft, both above 32x, despite stronger revenue growth momentum.

Earnings Power Strengthens as Margins Expand

Q2 2025 revenue came in at $47.52 billion, up 21.6% YoY, while net income surged to $18.34 billion. Diluted EPS at $7.14 beat forecasts by nearly 21%, the fourth consecutive double-digit surprise. Meta’s operating margin of 43% and net margin just under 40% underline efficiency gains. FY 2025 EPS is expected at $28.06, with 2026 consensus at $29.95, though high estimates reach $34.85, pointing to 16.9% YoY growth potential. Revenue is projected at $196.1B in 2025 and $228B in 2026, maintaining high-teens top-line expansion.

Advertising Engine Driven by AI and Reels Growth

Meta’s advertising remains its largest profit driver, with the price per ad up 9% YoY in Q2 2025 following 10% growth in 2024. New AI tools improved conversion rates, boosting ad impressions by 11% YoY. Instagram’s dominance is growing, with U.S. ad revenues projected at $32 billion in 2025 and ARPU of $250, surpassing Facebook at $207, TikTok at $132, and YouTube at $40. Reels and Threads now contribute close to 10% of global revenue, with Threads jumping to 400 million monthly users, adding 50 million in a single quarter.

AI Superintelligence Ambitions Push Beyond Efficiency

CEO Mark Zuckerberg has openly framed AI’s evolution as moving toward superintelligence, claiming Meta’s systems are starting to “improve themselves.” In practice, AI has already lifted ad conversions by 5% on Instagram and 3% on Facebook, while time spent rose 5% on Facebook and 6% on Instagram. Meta AI assistants now engage 1 billion monthly active users, creating the largest AI-powered consumer application in existence. This user base gives Meta the scale to monetize AI faster than rivals that remain limited to experimental deployments.

Device Expansion and Reality Labs Losses

Meta’s device strategy is finally showing traction. Ray-Ban Meta smartglasses, produced with EssilorLuxottica, saw sales triple in the last year. Capacity expansion is targeting 10 million units annually by 2026, a major shift from early adoption to scaled production. Still, Reality Labs remains a drag, logging $4.8 billion in quarterly losses, with cumulative losses exceeding $70 billion since 2020. Upcoming launches, including new smartglasses and an AI-driven wristband, will be tested by consumer adoption and profitability pressure.

Cash Flow Resilience and Capital Returns

Operating cash flow over the last year totaled $102.3 billion, with free cash flow of $32 billion despite $30.7 billion H1 2025 capex, more than double the previous year. Buybacks remain a key lever, with $31.7 billion repurchased in the last twelve months, shrinking the float by 5.74% in three years. The balance sheet shows $47.07 billion in cash against $49.56 billion in debt, keeping leverage modest with a 25.4% debt-to-equity ratio. Dividend payouts remain conservative at $2.10 annually (0.28% yield) and a 7.4% payout ratio, leaving ample room for expansion. Insider activity has been limited, with no outsized selling according to insider transactions, while institutions hold nearly 80% of outstanding shares.

Regulatory Headwinds From FTC Antitrust Case

The FTC’s monopolization lawsuit targeting Instagram and WhatsApp remains a significant overhang. Instagram alone is expected to deliver $32 billion in U.S. ad revenue in 2025, supported by 2 billion monthly users and ARPU of $250. WhatsApp, with 3 billion MAUs and over 1.5 billion daily actives, underpins Meta’s click-to-message ads, which already exceeded a $10 billion annual run rate. A forced divestiture would severely dent Meta’s topline, yet recent U.S. court decisions—such as rejecting a Chrome breakup in Google’s case—indicate a structural separation is unlikely. TikTok’s regulatory struggles, including bans in India and scrutiny in Europe and the U.S., present upside opportunities for Reels and Threads.

Valuation Context Versus Apple and Microsoft

At current multiples of 27.4x trailing earnings and 25.6x forward, Meta trades cheaper than Apple and Microsoft despite stronger EPS growth. The PEG ratio of 2.06 places META fairly priced relative to its mid-teens expansion. Price-to-sales sits at 11x, and price-to-book at 9.7x, reflecting premium positioning for a mega-cap with unmatched user scale. Analyst targets center around $863 with highs of $1,086, implying upside of 14–44% from the current $755 level. The low end at $658 remains well above the 52-week low of $479.80, reflecting limited downside risk relative to growth trajectory.

Verdict: NASDAQ:META Is a Buy at $755 With Upside Toward $1,086

Meta Platforms combines 44% one-year share price gains, $71.5 billion in net income, and operating margins above 40%, all while trading below the valuation multiples of Apple and Microsoft. AI adoption is directly fueling conversions, user engagement, and monetization, while shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends remain strong. Reality Labs losses and regulatory risks remain hurdles, but Meta’s $47 billion cash reserve, institutional support, and valuation discount keep the stock positioned for further re-rating. At $755, NASDAQ:META is a Buy, with realistic targets between $863 and $1,086 backed by fundamentals, AI scaling, and ad growth momentum.

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