Micron Stock Price Forecast: AI Momentum and HBM Growth, MU Surges to $131

Political and Regulatory Factors Add Complexity

The CHIPS Act subsidy of $6.1 billion initially granted to Micron now faces political uncertainty, with reports suggesting the Trump administration may pressure companies like Micron to exchange subsidies for equity stakes, similar to the Intel 10% deal. If realized, this could dilute shareholder value, but also provide long-term government backing for expansion. In the near term, restrictions on South Korean memory exports to China have favored Micron, enabling it to capture incremental market share. These geopolitical dynamics, while risky, tilt advantage toward U.S. players like MU as Washington prioritizes domestic semiconductor sovereignty.

Technical Picture and Market Momentum

Technically, MU has broken through key resistance, with the stock moving decisively above the 50-day moving average at $118 and the 200-day at $100.56. The RSI remains bullish, and the $131.41 level has become an immediate ceiling. If the rally holds, the next resistance lies at $135 before retesting analyst consensus targets around $150. Downside support is firm at $118, with deeper support at $100, making current levels pivotal. Institutional ownership remains heavy at 84%, while short interest is just 2.86% of float, indicating limited bearish pressure.

Valuation and Comparisons Across the Sector

At $131, MU carries a market cap of $147 billion, trading at 4.4x sales and 9.4x EV/EBITDA, well below Nvidia’s 35x EV/EBITDA or Broadcom’s 21x. This relative discount has made MU one of the most attractive semiconductor memory plays for 2025. Compared with AMD at $151 per share and a $245 billion cap, MU offers more direct leverage to DRAM/NAND cycles and AI server growth. With memory pricing firming, gross margin at 37% and operating margin at 23%, Micron has re-established profitability after the deep trough of 2023–24.

Forward Outlook and Investment Decision

Analyst consensus places the stock at an average price target of $150.57, with a high of $200, implying 14%–52% upside from current levels. Dividend yield remains modest at 0.35%, reflecting the company’s growth focus, but free cash flow of $1.22 billion demonstrates strengthening capital discipline. With EPS growth above 500% YoY and revenue momentum aligned with AI infrastructure spending, Micron remains a Buy at current levels. The risk rests in DRAM price corrections in 2026, but with demand from hyperscalers and AI chip leaders absorbing supply faster than production, Micron stands positioned to extend gains.

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