Natural Gas Slips to $3.64 as Market Eyes $3.60 Support Before EIA Storage Report
Natural Gas futures (NG=F) are trading at $3.64/MMBtu, down 1.25% today as traders adjust positions ahead of this week’s EIA storage data. The decline follows a failed attempt to hold above $3.69, with sentiment caught between resilient U.S. production and seasonally strong power burn demand.
The market remains locked in a narrow range, with buyers defending the $3.60–$3.61 support band while sellers emerge on approaches toward $3.69–$3.70. The compression in price action suggests an imminent volatility breakout, likely triggered by fresh supply-demand data.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate support rests at $3.60, reinforced by both the 20-day moving average and recent intraday lows. A breakdown below this level could open the door to $3.55, an area that drew significant buying in late July.
On the upside, resistance remains at $3.69, with the next barrier at $3.74, a price not surpassed since mid-June. A sustained breakout above $3.74 could drive momentum buying toward the $3.80–$3.85 zone, particularly if the upcoming EIA report shows a sharper-than-expected storage draw.
Fundamental Drivers
U.S. dry gas production remains robust at over 103 Bcf/d, more than offsetting LNG export flows. Demand from power generation is holding steady as summer heat lingers across the U.S. South and Midwest. However, weather models now point to moderating temperatures in the Northeast, which could cap peak demand.
On the export front, LNG feedgas flows are steady in the 12.5–13.0 Bcf/d range, with Freeport LNG near full utilization. European storage is already above 87% heading into winter, reducing near-term urgency for additional spot purchases.
Technical Indicators
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned near 52, signaling neutral momentum but with room for directional acceleration. The MACD is marginally above the signal line, indicating a tentative bullish bias.
Price remains above the 50-day moving average ($3.58) and the 200-day moving average ($3.46), keeping the broader technical structure intact for a possible retest of recent highs.
Trading Playbook for NG=F
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Short-term strategy: Buy dips near $3.60 with stops under $3.55, targeting $3.69 and $3.74 as primary profit zones.
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Swing strategy: Wait for a confirmed close above $3.74 to aim for the $3.80–$3.85 range.
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Downside risk: A close under $3.55 could trigger a deeper slide toward $3.48, where stronger buyer interest is likely.
Verdict on Natural Gas at $3.64
Rating: Hold with a Mild Upside Bias. Market positioning ahead of the EIA storage release suggests a coiled spring. A bullish surprise or sustained LNG demand could accelerate a push toward $3.80, while a bearish build risks breaking the $3.55 floor and testing deeper supports.
