Natural Gas Price Forecast - NG=F Falls to $4.35 as Record Output, Warm Weather and Storage Surplus Pressure Bulls

Natural Gas NG=F Slides to $4.35 As Record Output, Softer Weather Models and Storage Surplus Hit Winter Momentum

Natural Gas NG=F opens the week under visible pressure, slipping toward $4.35 after losing 4.5% on the session while traders digest a triple-bearish combination of record U.S. output at 109.3 bcfd, storage running 3.9% above the five-year norm at 3,948 bcf, and a warm-weather stretch that cuts near-term heating demand. The front-month contract falling from last week’s $4.688 high marks the market’s first meaningful reset after a multi-week breakout that lifted NG=F from the $2.80–$3 zone and triggered a full bullish wedge reversal. With December futures now pinned against the 200-day moving average near $4.456, traders are fighting at a technical line that has determined every directional break since early spring. The test comes as NG=F digests the heaviest production month on record and a demand forecast that slipped to 116.0 bcfd for this week and 116.9 bcfd for next week, both weaker than Friday’s projection, killing the urgency bulls had built during the cold-weather setup.

Natural Gas NG=F Faces Record U.S. Output At 109.3 Bcfd, Creating A Massive Supply Wall Near $4.30–$4.45

Production continues smashing new records with Lower-48 output reaching 109.3 bcfd in November, up from 107.3 bcfd in October and already above the 108.3 bcfd record from August. Supply expands further once imports from Canada at 8.5 bcfd are layered onto the system, lifting total U.S. supply toward 117.5 bcfd. This level of output allows the market to repeatedly rebuild storage faster than seasonal averages, providing the slack that weakens NG=F every time weather models shift warmer for even three to five days. With 3,960 bcf in storage last week versus 3,800 bcf for the five-year average, the market’s cushion remains broad enough to smother any cold-front excitement unless the next system delivers deeper, longer duration. Traders know the surplus is still wide even after a mild drawdown to 3,948 bcf this week, and the 45 bcf injection reported last Thursday confirmed supply is comfortably exceeding consumption through the shoulder period.

Natural Gas NG=F Battles The 200-Day Moving Average As Sellers Target $4.22 And $4.14 For A Deeper Pullback

Technicals reveal NG=F sitting at a pivotal zone. The failed breakout above $4.68 last week exposed the market to heavy profit-taking as bulls ran into a multi-year resistance shelf dating back through 2024. Once price retreated toward the 200-day MA at $4.456, sellers immediately targeted the mid-$4s, pressing the market to $4.361. If the 200-day MA breaks decisively, the first magnet sits at $4.220, followed by $4.142—both defined by 50% retracement levels of the recent rally. The more serious downside trigger appears at $4.014, aligned with the 50-day EMA. Bulls defend this level aggressively because losing it would formally end the “buy-the-dip” structure that supported the multi-week surge. As of today’s session, NG=F still trades above the 20-day EMA at $4.12, the 50-day EMA at $4.014, and the 100-day EMA at $3.49—all rising in a stacked formation that usually characterizes a maturing uptrend rather than a collapse. But the overbought condition is unwinding and momentum requires rebuilding.

Natural Gas NG=F Weather Models Turn Warmer, Dampening The Cold-Driven Rally And Forcing Bulls To Reprice December Demand

Weather remains the main destabilizer. Meteorologists show U.S. temperatures running above normal through December 2, with both northern and southern regions expected to experience milder conditions. The brief Northeast cold shot early this week loses impact due to a warm ridge that could linger across the East for longer than previously forecast. This shift—colder early week, warmer thereafter—undercuts natural gas’s strongest seasonal driver. Heating degree days (HDDs) sit at 281 for the two-week forecast, well below the 10-year norm of 312 and the 30-year norm of 316. Traders who previously positioned for a December freeze are now reassessing timing. Bulls are waiting for midday model updates to confirm whether the colder plunge expected in early December remains intact. Without that confirmation, NG=F stays vulnerable to tests toward $4.22 and $4.01.

Natural Gas NG=F LNG Dynamics Offer Support As Feedgas Surges To A Record 18.6 Bcfd And Europe Shifts Winter Sourcing

On the supportive side, LNG feedgas rose to 18.6 bcfd on November 15—a new all-time high—driven by flows to Venture Global's Plaquemines plant hitting a record 4.1 bcfd. Total LNG feedgas for November averages 17.9 bcfd, comfortably above October’s record 16.6 bcfd. This means export facilities are pulling near-maximum volumes even as domestic prices wobble near the 200-day MA. More structural support arrives from Europe: Ukraine’s winter LNG pact via Greece reshapes regional demand. With nearly €2 billion allocated for imports and expanded Greek regasification capacity serving as a new entry point, Europe is leaning more heavily on U.S. LNG during the peak winter stretch. Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy lines and continued decoupling from Russian gas reinforce the continent’s reliance on American LNG cargoes. This tightening global LNG map is one of the reasons why the recent pullback halted near $4.35 rather than collapsing back toward $3.80.

Natural Gas NG=F Spot Market Turmoil Shows Waha Hub At -$0.29 As Pipeline Constraints Trap Supply

The Waha Hub continues delivering extreme volatility with prices falling to -$0.29, marking the eighth negative session this month and the 30th negative print of 2025. Persistent pipeline congestion in West Texas traps supply in the Permian Basin, creating price dislocations even as NG=F trades above $4.30 nationally. Waha averaged $1.29 for 2025 so far, up from $0.77 in 2024 but well below its five-year average of $2.91. These structural constraints prevent the region from benefiting from elevated LNG demand and instead leak unwanted supply into local hubs. Although this doesn’t directly dictate Henry Hub pricing, it signals that supply surplus pockets remain unresolved across the U.S. energy grid.

Natural Gas NG=F Storage Surplus At 172 Bcf Above Five-Year Average Pressures Bulls Ahead Of December Heating Season

Storage remains one of the strongest bearish forces. The 3,960 bcf reading last week followed by 3,948 bcf this week keeps U.S. inventories 172 bcf above the five-year benchmark. This 3.9% surplus limits the market’s fear premium even when winter forecasts hint at upcoming cold snaps. The storage advantage gives traders confidence that early December will not create shortages unless temperatures drop in a prolonged and geographically broad pattern. With total demand at 118.9 bcfd last week falling to 116.0 bcfd this week and just 116.9 bcfd projected for next week, the storage picture adds to the framework keeping NG=F pinned below last week’s highs.

Natural Gas NG=F Technical Momentum Still Leaning Bullish Despite Pullback, With $4.70–$4.80 The Ceiling To Break

Even with the pullback to $4.35, NG=F maintains a higher-lows pattern on the broader structure. The breakout above $3.70 earlier this month established a long-term reversal from the multi-month wedge, and the recovery from $2.80–$3.00 still represents one of the strongest rallies of 2025. The resistance cluster at $4.70–$4.80 remains the line separating the market from a full return to $5.00. RSI above 68 last week hinted at exhaustion, but the indicator still prints higher lows, reinforcing that this pullback is corrective rather than destructive—unless price breaks below the 50-day EMA at $4.014.

Natural Gas NG=F Traders Lean Toward Profit-Taking Before December Weather Confirmation

The entire narrative now hinges on whether December’s first full cold front lands on time. Warm models give bears permission to press the 200-day MA. Storage surplus supports them. But record LNG feedgas, rising European winter demand, and strong technical structure favor the bulls longer-term. With NG=F trading at $4.35–$4.45, the market waits for the next weather catalyst to decide whether the next leg is $4.70–$4.80 or $4.22–$4.01.

Natural Gas NG=F Final Verdict: Buy The Dip Into $4.22–$4.01, Target A December Rebound Back Toward $4.70–$5.00

The trend remains upward as long as NG=F holds above the 50-day EMA at $4.014. Record LNG demand, structural European shifts, and a cold-weather setup for early December keep the medium-term outlook bullish.

Verdict: Buy
A dip into $4.22–$4.01 offers the best setup for a move back toward $4.70–$4.80 and eventually $5.00 if December cold verifies.

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