Natural Gas Price Forecast: (NG=F) Futures Face $3.00 Resistance With Seasonal Volatility Ahead

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Forecast: Futures Struggle at $3.00 as Supply Shifts, Storage, and Weather Trends Collide

Natural gas (NG=F) continues to wrestle with resistance at the $3.00 mark, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies through late August. On Thursday, contracts for September delivery traded with hesitation after bouncing off lows, with the market still unable to convincingly reclaim ground above the 50-day EMA. The $3.00 round number carries psychological weight, and its alignment with the EMA has created a heavy ceiling. Despite the summer lull in demand, futures shifted into the September contract with a slight upward bias compared to August, as seasonal patterns suggest higher pricing into the colder months. Traders are closely watching whether this rollover provides momentum or whether resistance levels again stifle buying power.

European Gas Prices Ease on Wind Output and LNG Flows

The European side of the natural gas equation continues to lean bearish. Dutch TTF benchmark futures slid €1.32 to €31.23 per megawatt hour, translating to about $10.63/MMBtu, the weakest price in a week. UK front-month contracts followed, losing 2.55 pence to 78.21p/therm. The pressure came from increased LNG arrivals into Germany and Italy, offsetting lower Norwegian pipeline flows due to seasonal maintenance. Wind generation in Northwest Europe is also curbing gas-for-power demand, with power station and industrial consumption forecasts dropping nearly 25% day over day. EU storage sits at 76.4% capacity compared with 92% this time last year, leaving the bloc more relaxed heading into autumn even as Norwegian maintenance trims supply.

Turkey’s Spot Market Highlights Regional Pressure

In Turkey, spot natural gas prices printed at 14,535 lira per 1,000 cubic meters, equal to roughly $354 per thousand cubic meters at the prevailing USD/TRY of 41.05. Daily trade volume fell 29% to 3.9 million lira, highlighting subdued local demand. Imports totaled 138.6 million cubic meters of pipeline gas for the day. These figures underscore a regional market that is well-supplied, limiting upward price traction in global LNG benchmarks as Turkish buyers remain cautious.

Offshore Wind Could Have Saved New England $400M

A Daymark Energy Advisors report added an important angle for North American gas traders. Had New England’s 3.5 GW of contracted offshore wind projects been operational last winter, the region could have saved $400 million on energy bills by offsetting surging natural gas costs. The report calculated that New England gas prices averaged $3.40/MMBtu in spring 2025, up 112% from $1.60/MMBtu a year earlier. Injecting near-zero marginal cost offshore wind into the grid would have cut wholesale locational marginal prices by 11%, translating into substantial consumer savings. This highlights a structural headwind for natural gas: as renewable penetration grows, gas loses its role as the marginal price-setter during peak demand, particularly in U.S. regions with aggressive clean energy buildouts.

Technical Levels and U.S. Seasonal Dynamics

Back on the U.S. futures side, NG=F remains stuck between $2.50 and $3.00. The $2.50 zone is viewed as a seasonal floor, tested multiple times this summer, while $3.00 has become the upper limit ahead of autumn demand. Any decisive break above $3.00 would set up a run toward $3.35, but failure to breach this level keeps the path open to a retest of $2.76 and possibly $2.50. Market sentiment is cautious, with short-term rallies often faded. The 50-day EMA near $2.95 and the 100-day EMA near $2.75 create technical congestion, amplifying the importance of September storage reports and early weather models.

Storage, LNG, and Macro Backdrop Shape the Path

The U.S. is entering the shoulder season with inventories in a comfortable position, easing pressure for buyers to chase futures. LNG demand remains robust, but supply from Europe and Turkey’s weak spot market shows global gas is currently oversupplied outside weather shocks. The market will closely watch September heating degree day forecasts, hurricane season impacts on Gulf production, and LNG shipping volumes to Asia as the next catalysts.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Forecast: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

With NG=F at $2.95–$3.00, the market is at a decision point. Technical resistance at $3.00 has capped upside repeatedly, but seasonal demand could push a breakout if storage builds slow. European and Turkish markets are weighing on sentiment with oversupply signals, while U.S. renewables highlight long-term substitution risks. For short-term traders, natural gas remains a Sell on rallies above $3.00 until resistance is cleared, with downside risk toward $2.50. For longer-term positioning into winter, a confirmed breakout above $3.00 would flip sentiment to Buy, targeting $3.35 and potentially higher into Q4. At current levels, NG=F sits in a Hold zone, awaiting confirmation.

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