Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Stalls at $2.75 With Powell Risk Ahead

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Struggles at $2.75 With Downside Risks Toward $2.60 as Storage and Mild Weather Undercut Demand

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Under Pressure After Failing at $2.88 Resistance

Natural gas futures NG=F are locked in a bearish setup, trading at $2.75 after multiple failed attempts to break above $2.88, the ceiling reinforced by the 100-day EMA. A descending trendline has capped every rally since late July, keeping bulls sidelined. The current structure shows price action pinned just above short-term support at $2.73, but momentum is weak — the RSI at 36.3 signals that sellers remain in control. Unless there is a rebound above $2.80–$2.83, markets face another leg down toward $2.67, with an extension to $2.61 if selling pressure accelerates.

Bearish Technical Formations Signal Next Stops at $2.61 and $2.39

The rejection at $3.05 earlier this week marked the neckline of a bearish reversal pattern, and the follow-through to $2.76 confirmed that control has shifted to sellers. Analysts tracking price cycles point to $2.61 as the next key station, with further downside risks toward $2.39. The trading range projected for this week is $2.61–$2.85, skewed to the downside. Negative momentum across oscillators — RSI, Stochastic, and MACD — strengthens the case for continued weakness unless a sharp volume-driven recovery develops.

Storage Levels and Seasonal Demand: Why $2.50 Is in Play

Natural gas inventories remain elevated, keeping storage buffers comfortable heading into late summer. With U.S. temperatures mild, neither air-conditioning demand nor heating demand is stressing the grid. That seasonal lull has coincided with a steep drop from early August highs, as speculative longs unwind positions in the absence of strong consumption catalysts. Traders now eye the $2.50 zone as a likely point of capitulation before the market starts to turn its attention to winter heating demand. Historically, NG=F often finds a seasonal floor in the $2.40–$2.50 band before building pre-winter rallies.

Macro Environment and Powell’s Fed Risk

The latest macro shock comes not from energy-specific data but from monetary policy fears. Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, commodities tied to risk sentiment, including natural gas, have been pressured lower. Fears of sticky inflation — reinforced by consumer price signals and warnings from U.S. retailers like Home Depot about cost pressures — have raised the probability that the Fed delays rate cuts. For NG=F, this means speculative capital outflows as traders reduce exposure to volatile assets. In just 24 hours, natural gas lost nearly 0.73%, with the broader commodity complex in the red. If Powell signals higher-for-longer rates, expect NG=F to retest $2.61 quickly, with deeper losses possible.

Global Energy Supply and OPEC+ Dynamics Impact NG=F

While natural gas is not as directly tied to OPEC+ as crude, the broader energy complex has been dragged by production increases from OPEC+ members and Russian export flows. Oil benchmarks are down 10% month-to-date, with Brent trading at $66.44 and WTI at $62.47, and this weakness has bled into NG=F sentiment. Traders are increasingly pricing in an oversupplied global market, especially with U.S. LNG export growth failing to offset weaker domestic consumption. Until supply disruptions or unexpected geopolitical risks emerge, NG=F is vulnerable to further downside.

Medium-Term Outlook: Watching $2.95 and $3.25 for Recovery

Despite the short-term bearish tilt, the medium-term picture for NG=F is not universally negative. If buyers can force a sustained break above $2.83, it would trigger a relief rally to $2.95, followed by a retest of $3.25 — the upper boundary that would need to be cleared to shift momentum decisively. Such a breakout would require a combination of colder-than-expected September weather forecasts and stronger LNG demand. Until then, short sellers are expected to dominate every rally, with resistance layers thick between $2.80–$2.95.

Buy, Sell, or Hold? NG=F Decision Point

At $2.75, with clear bearish technical signals, comfortable storage, mild weather, and Powell risk looming, the bias remains bearish in the short term. NG=F is more likely to test $2.61 and even $2.39 before staging a seasonal recovery toward winter. Aggressive traders may see speculative opportunities near $2.50, historically a turnaround level, but without a confirmed catalyst, any long positions remain highly risky. Based on the current balance of evidence, NG=F aligns more with a Sell rating, with opportunistic buys only at deeper support zones closer to $2.50.

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