Nebius Stock Price Forecast - (NASDAQ:NBIS) Rockets to $110.56 After $17.4B Microsoft AI Pact, Capacity Expansion to 1.2 GW by 2027

Nebius Group Stock Price Forecast - (NASDAQ:NBIS) Surges Into AI Infrastructure Spotlight After Microsoft Deal

Nebius Group Stock (NASDAQ:NBIS) Performance and Valuation Re-Rate

Shares of Nebius (NASDAQ:NBIS) have staged one of the sharpest rallies in the AI infrastructure sector, climbing 673% over the past year and advancing another 299% YTD, now trading at $110.56. The surge came after the company secured a multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft valued at $17.4 billion, with options that could extend to $19.4 billion. At the current level, Nebius commands a $27.6 billion market cap and trades on a 145x P/E and ~98x P/S multiple, metrics that dwarf the sector’s average of 3–4x sales. Yet, the forward revenue trajectory implies these lofty multiples could compress rapidly. Analysts now assign a 12-month price target of $153, with the most bullish models stretching to $206 per share.

AI Cloud Expansion and Capacity Ramp

Nebius has pivoted from a niche GPU lessor into a vertically integrated AI cloud operator with hyperscaler-level ambitions. Installed capacity reached 185 MW in 2025, with 100 MW revenue-generating. The roadmap calls for 700 MW installed by 2026 and 1.2 GW by 2027, supporting GPU clusters exceeding 700,000 units. Pricing models assume rental rates ranging from $1.60 to $5.50 per GPU hour, with New Jersey’s flagship facility locked in at $2.70 per GPU hour at full utilization. On this basis, revenue is projected at $536 million in 2025, $3.3 billion in 2026, and $11.3 billion in 2027, driving adjusted EBITDA from a $71 million loss this year to $7.4 billion by 2027.

Microsoft, Cloudflare, and Shopify Validate the Platform

The Microsoft contract validates Nebius as a credible partner in the hyperscale segment, positioning it alongside the most trusted names in AI infrastructure. Additional deals with Cloudflare (NYSE:NET) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) further cement Nebius’s reputation for powering mission-critical AI workloads across security, e-commerce, and enterprise tools. Each contract expands Nebius’s footprint and accelerates utilization of new clusters in the U.S., U.K., and Israel, where governments are providing supportive AI funding environments.

Subsidiary Value Drivers: Avride, TripleTen, Toloka, ClickHouse

Beyond Nebius AI cloud, the group has multiple embedded assets. Avride, its autonomous vehicle subsidiary, is testing robotaxi fleets in Dallas in partnership with Uber Eats and has logged more than 200,000 pilot deliveries, worth an estimated $4.8 billion stake. TripleTen, its edtech arm, generated $22.8 million in 1H25 revenue with 124% YoY growth but still reports widening EBITDA losses due to high customer acquisition costs; fair value sits near $267 million. Toloka, its AI-powered data labeling unit, is valued at $640 million, while its ClickHouse stake is estimated at $1.78 billion, with IPO potential in three years. Together, these assets add $27 per share in value on top of the core Nebius AI operations.

Capital Raises and Leverage Strategy

To fund expansion, Nebius has raised $1.15 billion through equity and $3.16 billion through convertibles, with two September bonds priced at $138.75 conversion levels, signaling confidence in long-term upside. Total CapEx requirements are estimated at $29.9 billion through 2027, with GPUs and networking hardware consuming ~$20 billion of that spend. Current liquidity sits at $1.68 billion cash and $1.22 billion debt, leaving another $13 billion in expected financing needs. Favorable debt structures at 1–2.75% interest rates mitigate near-term risk despite a shift to net debt.

Comparisons to Palantir and CoreWeave

Valuation context highlights the divergence between Nebius and peers. While Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) trades at 133x sales on a $425 billion market cap, Nebius’s 111x multiple looks less extreme when factoring projected $11+ billion revenues by 2028 and 25–30% EBITDA margins. By then, P/S is expected to compress to ~6.7x, making NBIS look relatively attractive. Against CoreWeave (private), which operates with 2.2 GW contracted capacity but only 470 MW active, Nebius shows stronger utilization ramp and earlier profitability milestones.

Insider and Institutional Positioning

Institutional holders control 40.13% of shares, with insiders retaining 3.79%. Short interest stands at 9.84% of float, or 21 million shares, reflecting skepticism around high multiples. Insider transactions are available on the NBIS stock profile, with recent capital raises deliberately structured to bring major banks into coverage. Goldman Sachs already covers the name with a Buy, and further initiations from Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Bank of America are expected, which could drive additional institutional flows.

Investment Outlook: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

At $110.56, NBIS trades just below fair value models that place it around $138 per share post-Microsoft deal. With revenue set to scale at a 191% CAGR through 2026, EBITDA inflection expected by late 2026, and optionality from Avride and ClickHouse, the case is clear: despite short-term volatility, Nebius remains a Buy. The key risks are execution on CapEx and competitive pressure from hyperscalers, but with $17.4 billion in booked revenue from Microsoft and a diversified pipeline, the growth trajectory supports upside beyond $150–$160 per share over the next 12 months.

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