Nike Stock Price Forecast: NYSE:NKE at $69.31 Eyes $83 Target as Turnaround, China Sales, and Nike SKIMS Push Brand Revival

Nike (NYSE:NKE) Stock Rebounds at $69.31 as Investors Brace for Q1 Earnings

Nike (NYSE:NKE) ended the week at $69.31 per share, valuing the sportswear giant at $102.36 billion. Shares remain more than 40% below their all-time highs, yet the stock has been quietly stabilizing as Wall Street prepares for its Q1 2026 earnings release on September 30. Analysts expect quarterly revenue near $10.98 billion with earnings per share of $0.27, a sharp drop from the $0.94 EPS reported a year earlier, but investors are focusing less on near-term profit compression and more on signs of a bottoming cycle. At current levels, Nike trades at 21.4x forward earnings, well below its five-year average above 30x, giving valuation-driven investors a fresh reason to step back in.

Revenue Declines Slow After Six Quarters of Contraction

Nike’s top line has been under pressure for six straight quarters, dragged lower by weak China sales, excess inventory, and softer U.S. wholesale demand. Fiscal Q4 2025 revenue fell 2% year-over-year to $12.6 billion, while gross margins contracted by 90 basis points to 43.3%. North America sales dropped 8% to $5.0 billion, while China revenues collapsed 21% to $1.36 billion. Europe, Middle East, and Africa held steadier, posting $3.4 billion, up 2% from a year ago. The pressure is clear, but recent sell-side notes point out that inventory levels, once bloated at $9.7 billion, have been reduced by nearly 14% year-over-year, signaling Nike is regaining operational control.

China Remains the Swing Factor After $1.36 Billion Collapse

The most painful drag in recent quarters has been China, historically Nike’s most profitable region. In fiscal Q4 2025, revenues in Greater China plunged 21%, wiping out nearly $350 million in sales. Currency headwinds, political boycotts, and local competition from Anta Sports and Li-Ning have all weighed. But there are early signs of recovery: August channel checks showed mid-single-digit sales improvements, and Nike’s e-commerce traffic in China has rebounded 11% year-over-year after eight months of declines. With Nike’s brand strength still intact among urban Chinese consumers, even a partial recovery could add back $1 billion in annual revenue over the next year.

NikeSKIMS Collaboration Signals Fresh Brand Heat

Nike’s co-branded partnership with Kim Kardashian’s SKIMS, set to launch in late October, could provide the cultural spark the company has been missing. Early pre-launch buzz across TikTok and Instagram generated more than 120 million social impressions within 72 hours, according to internal marketing trackers. With SKIMS projected to exceed $1 billion in sales in 2025, the collaboration positions Nike not just in sports apparel, but as a lifestyle brand squarely in the cultural zeitgeist. Analysts estimate the collab could add $250–300 million in incremental sales over 12 months, while reinforcing Nike’s dominance in athleisure against Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) and Adidas (OTCMKTS:ADDYY).

Macro Headwinds: Tariffs and Currency Pressure

Nike also faces macroeconomic risks. The Biden administration’s new tariff package — including 25% duties on apparel and 10% on footwear imports — could raise Nike’s cost base by $900 million to $1 billion annually, unless offset through supply-chain reengineering. Meanwhile, a strong U.S. dollar continues to erode international sales, shaving $300 million off fiscal Q4 revenues. Still, the company is shifting sourcing toward Vietnam and Indonesia, which now account for 58% of footwear production, up from 52% a year ago, helping to dilute tariff exposure.

Insider Positioning and Dividend Stability Support Confidence

Investor sentiment has been steadied by strong insider and institutional positioning. Over the past quarter, Nike insiders have not sold significant stakes, while institutional investors collectively added $1.2 billion in fresh capital. The dividend yield at 2.31%, backed by annual payouts of $1.48 per share, remains attractive in a volatile equity market. With free cash flow generation still expected at $4.5 billion in FY2026, Nike’s payout ratio of 42% is sustainable, giving income investors a cushion during the turnaround.

Technical Setup Points to $83 Fair Value

Technically, Nike stock has been basing in the $67–70 range for eight weeks, repeatedly bouncing from $67.10 support while failing to break through $71.50 resistance. Should earnings deliver even modest positive surprises, momentum could push NKE toward $76.80 near-term, with the 200-day moving average at $79.40 as a secondary target. Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating with an $83 target, implying 17% upside from current levels. A failure on earnings, however, could see shares retest $65, where the long-term trendline converges with pandemic-era lows.

Verdict: Nike Is a Buy on Turnaround and Brand Catalysts

At $69.31, Nike offers investors a chance to buy a global consumer leader at its cheapest multiple in a decade. The worst of inventory and China pressures appear behind the company, while the NikeSKIMS partnership, insider confidence, and stable dividend provide near-term support. With Wall Street expecting a revenue base near $48 billion for FY2026 and margin recovery in the second half, the stock carries asymmetric upside. Based on fundamentals, technical structure, and brand catalysts, Nike (NKE) is a Buy with a 12-month target of $83.

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