NVIDIA Price Forecast - NVDA Slides to $183.16 After 4.85% Drop

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) Slides 4.85% to $183.16 Despite Trillion-Dollar Momentum

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) fell 4.85% to close at $183.16, retreating from its all-time high of $195.62, as renewed tariff tensions and sector-wide pressure hit chipmakers. Despite the pullback, the company remains the world’s most valuable semiconductor firm with a market cap of $4.459 trillion. Trading volume surged to 259.6 million shares, well above its 172.9 million average, signaling high institutional rotation amid volatility.

Record Fundamentals Underscore AI Dominance

The numbers remain staggering. NVIDIA reported $165.22 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, up 55.6% YoY, alongside net income of $86.6 billion and diluted EPS of $3.52. Profit margin reached 52.4%, and return on equity soared to 109.4%, an almost unmatched figure in global equities. The company holds $56.79 billion in cash with minimal leverage — debt-to-equity of 10.58% — reflecting balance-sheet strength rarely seen at this scale.

The firm’s operating cash flow of $77 billion and free cash flow of $52.44 billion give it enormous reinvestment power. Its forward P/E of 29.94x signals valuation cooling from the peak of 57.38x, suggesting partial normalization as earnings catch up with price.

Explosive Growth Backed by AI Infrastructure and Global Expansion

NVIDIA’s recent rally stems from unprecedented demand for its AI chips powering hyperscale data centers and sovereign AI projects. Analysts project 2026 revenue at $206.46 billion, rising to $275.14 billion in 2027, while EPS is set to grow from $4.50 in 2026 to $6.37 in 2027, reflecting 41.5% YoY earnings expansion.

Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target from $240 to $300, maintaining an “Overweight” stance, citing continued acceleration in AI infrastructure spending. The analyst forecast is echoed by Morgan Stanley, which expects the global AI infrastructure market to hit $3–5 trillion by 2030, with NVIDIA capturing up to 75% of AI accelerator share.

Strategic Wins: Export License and Sovereign Projects

A key catalyst this week was the U.S. Commerce Department’s approval of NVIDIA’s AI chip exports to the UAE, following reciprocal investments from Abu Dhabi’s sovereign fund. This move marked the first major export clearance since the Trump administration’s restrictions. The chips are part of the Stargate UAE initiative—a $5 billion AI data hub involving OpenAI, Oracle, Cisco, and NVIDIA as the primary infrastructure supplier.

This approval opens a lucrative Middle Eastern market, mitigating risks from China’s recent ban on NVIDIA chips and restoring investor confidence after months of geopolitical strain. NVIDIA’s global diversification now extends from North America to the Gulf, Europe, and East Asia—each fueling its trillion-dollar expansion cycle.

AI Ecosystem Still in Early Stages Despite Market Fears

Despite talk of an “AI bubble,” executives and analysts argue otherwise. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that demand for the Blackwell architecture chips remains “really, really high,” calling the current phase “the beginning of a new industrial revolution.” The company’s ecosystem of chips, software, and networking solutions makes NVIDIA an irreplaceable full-stack provider, with rivals like AMD and Intel still building around it rather than against it.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3.4% amid tariff-driven selloffs, but NVDA’s fundamentals continue to dwarf peers. For comparison, AMD trades at $214.90 (-7.7%), TSMC at $280.66 (-6.4%), and Broadcom at $324.63 (-5.9%), while NVIDIA still leads with record profitability and scale.

Earnings Momentum and Valuation Balance

In the latest quarter (Q2 FY26), NVIDIA reported revenue of $46.74 billion and earnings of $25.78 billion, beating consensus estimates of $1.01 EPS with $1.05 actual. For Q3 FY26, Wall Street expects $54.65 billion in revenue and $1.24 EPS, a 53.5% YoY gain.

The valuation premium—Price/Sales of 28.19x and Price/Book of 45.93x—remains steep but justified by growth velocity. With a PEG ratio of 1.00, NVIDIA trades precisely in line with long-term earnings growth, suggesting balanced risk-reward.

Analyst Outlook and Institutional Positioning

Out of 52 covering analysts, 49 rate NVDA a Buy or Strong Buy, with an average price target of $215.90 and a high of $300. Institutional ownership stands at 68.96%, while insiders retain 4.32%—a bullish alignment of interests. The short interest remains minimal at 0.97% of float, reinforcing market confidence.

Cantor’s upgraded target joins Morgan Stanley’s trillion-dollar thesis that views NVIDIA not as a cyclical chipmaker but as a global infrastructure layer underpinning the AI economy.

Technical Structure and Market Sentiment

Technically, NVDA trades well above its 200-day moving average of $144.45, though it recently dipped below its 50-day average of $179.15 after the tariff-driven selloff. The 52-week range spans $86.62 to $195.62, and the stock is still up 36.4% YTD and 1,471% over three years.

The next key support lies at $178.40, with resistance at the all-time high of $195.62. Momentum indicators show mild cooling, yet RSI remains above 50, signaling consolidation rather than reversal.

Insider Activity and Institutional Flows

Recent insider data, available via NVDA Insider Transactions, shows minimal selling relative to broader market corrections, indicating confidence from executives despite volatility. Institutional allocations continue to expand, led by pension and sovereign funds accumulating post-split shares following the 10:1 stock split on June 10, 2024.

Verdict: Buy the Correction

Despite short-term geopolitical and tariff-related headwinds, NVIDIA’s fundamentals remain unmatched. The company leads the AI acceleration cycle with $165B revenue, 52% margins, and a 109% ROE—metrics unparalleled in tech history. The export deal with the UAE, robust earnings growth, and analyst upgrades to $300 reaffirm its structural advantage.

With fair value seen near $215–$230, current pricing at $183 offers upside potential exceeding 20%. Considering growth trajectory, profitability, and global dominance, NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a Buy on any pullback, with long-term leadership intact across the AI and data infrastructure ecosystem.

View NVIDIA Real-Time Chart

That's TradingNEWS