Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Charges Higher at $131—Q1 Earnings Could Launch Stock to $140

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) Stock Analysis: AI Domination, Earnings Surge, and Global Volatility

NASDAQ:NVDA Unmatched in AI, Blackwell Chip Drives Growth

Nvidia Corporation stands as the undisputed backbone of the AI revolution, and its latest moves confirm why NASDAQ:NVDA remains essential for any serious investor. At $131 per share, Nvidia isn’t just a name in the Magnificent 7; it’s the core supplier for every major AI data center build worldwide. Q1 FY26 earnings are on deck, with the company targeting an eye-watering $43 billion in revenue—a 66% YoY surge. The Blackwell chip launch has already added $11 billion to the top line, marking the fastest ramp in Nvidia’s history, while Data Center revenue soared from $18.4 billion to $35.6 billion in a single year, up 93%. Investors tracking the real-time NVDA chart can see that the options market prices in a 6.7% move after earnings, signaling huge expectations for volatility and upside.

Margin Pressures, Segment Divergence, and Supply Chain Hurdles

Despite monster top-line growth, gross margins are expected to contract temporarily, guided to 70.6% versus the prior 73% due to costs in ramping Blackwell production. Nvidia assures investors that once the transition stabilizes, margins should rebound to the mid-70% range. Gaming revenue, the former pillar, has slumped 11% YoY to $2.54 billion—primarily due to launch timing and supply constraints on the new RTX 5090 and 5080 GPUs. Nvidia insists this isn’t demand-driven, expecting recovery in the coming quarters as inventory issues clear. Meanwhile, Professional Visualization delivered $511 million (up 10% YoY), and Automotive and Robotics exploded with a 103% YoY leap to $780 million, now seen as a critical long-term growth lever. Partnerships with Tesla, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, and other top automakers are accelerating the adoption of Nvidia DRIVE AGX Orin™, which is quickly becoming the standard for advanced autonomous vehicles.

China, Tariffs, and Global Risks—NVDA Navigates the Storm

Macroeconomic headwinds are real. China accounted for $17 billion of Nvidia’s FY25 revenue—down from previous highs, now just 13% of total sales as export restrictions bite. The US ban on high-end H100/H200 GPUs led to a $5.5 billion inventory write-off, but Nvidia is countering with a compliant H20 chip, amassing $18 billion in orders and expected to launch in July. Jensen Huang targets a $50 billion China AI market within three years, with NVDA aiming to maintain relevance despite trade barriers. On the tariff front, US-China tensions have eased slightly, with levies on chips falling to 30%, but fresh 10% tariffs on Taiwan imports could inflate costs further. Nvidia’s chips, priced between $30,000 and $40,000, are nearly irreplaceable for hyperscalers, but higher prices and possible CAPEX slowdowns in the US could temper growth if a recession hits. Yet, CAPEX commitments remain enormous—Mag7 giants (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, Tesla, Nvidia) are set to pour $320 billion into AI infrastructure in 2025, up 40% YoY, guaranteeing demand for Nvidia’s most advanced platforms.

Balance Sheet, Valuation, and Competitive Threats

With $38.54 billion in cash and investments against $8.5 billion in debt, Nvidia is built to weather storms. The stock trades at a blended P/E of 38.4x, which, considering a forecasted 47% EPS growth in FY26, looks compelling. Fair value is estimated at $140 per share, with even 20-25% annualized upside possible from here if current momentum holds. However, risks aren’t theoretical—Google (TPUs), Amazon (Trainium, Inferentia), and the global chip industry are all angling to reduce dependence on Nvidia’s high-margin products. Any material loss of market share or a stall in AI spending could see NVDA’s growth profile clipped, but as of now, there’s no challenger with the breadth and technological edge to dethrone Nvidia from the AI compute throne.

Catalysts, Price Levels, and Final Stance

Earnings on May 28th are expected to be a volatility event, with Wall Street focused on three things: Blackwell ramp pace, China recovery, and margin commentary. Revenue expectations are locked at $43–43.3 billion, with EPS consensus of $0.73 (range $0.73–0.88). Watch for comments on global automotive partnerships, potential deals in the Middle East, and any update on China chip launches. Technically, $131 acts as a support, with $140 as the first upside target if earnings impress, and deeper dips towards $120 could be opportunities if volatility spikes. If AI CAPEX slows or China remains locked out, downside risk increases, but fundamentals remain robust.

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Given the combination of surging AI demand, financial firepower, and expanding automotive and robotics exposure, I rate NVDA as a strong buy for investors willing to tolerate near-term volatility for substantial long-term upside. The reward outweighs the risk as long as hyperscaler spending and AI adoption continue to ramp globally. All eyes are on the NVDA real-time chart as Q1 earnings approach—momentum is building, but numbers will dictate the next move.

That's TradingNEWS