Nvidia Stock Price Forecast: NASDAQ:NVDA Balances $172 Support, AI Growth, and Policy Risks

NVIDIA Stock Analysis: NASDAQ:NVDA Faces Policy Risks While AI Growth Holds Momentum

NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has become the world’s most valuable technology company with a market capitalization of $4.23 trillion, yet its stock performance over the last week has reminded investors that even a company at the heart of artificial intelligence leadership is not immune to market turbulence. After reporting Q2 FY26 revenue of $46.7 billion, up 56% year-over-year but only 6% sequentially, shares of NVDA slipped more than 8% across two sessions, retreating from the all-time high of $184.47 to $172.06 in premarket trading on September 2. The weakness stems not from fundamentals, which remain exceptionally strong, but from regulatory uncertainty, tariff risks, and concerns about slowing hyperscaler capital expenditure growth.

AI Infrastructure Spending Anchors NASDAQ:NVDA Growth

NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI semiconductor market with a 92% share of high-performance GPUs powering large language models and generative AI systems. Data center revenue, which now contributes close to 90% of total sales, has ballooned to over $41.1 billion, growing 56% year-over-year in the latest quarter. The demand is almost entirely tied to the spending cycles of the “Magnificent Seven” hyperscalers. Microsoft has ramped CAPEX from $52.7 billion in 2023 to an estimated $120 billion in 2025, Alphabet from $32.3 billion to $85 billion, Amazon from $53 billion to $118 billion, and Meta from $10 billion to $90 billion. The correlation between these investments and NVDA’s revenue is direct, but investors are becoming cautious that spending at these levels—$100 billion per firm—cannot compound indefinitely without weighing on returns and depreciation cycles.

Blackwell and Rubin Platforms Strengthen Technological Edge

The release of the Blackwell GB200 architecture has expanded NVIDIA’s lead in AI compute efficiency, offering 25 times the cost-effectiveness of the prior Hopper H100 series. Adoption among hyperscalers has been immediate, helping the company sustain margins above 56% even in a competitive environment. Looking forward, the Rubin Ultra platform, expected in 2026, could reset the industry standard again, while proprietary NVLink and Mellanox-based networking assets allow NVIDIA to control entire AI cluster buildouts. This vertical integration is unmatched, and peers like Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, while growing, remain structurally behind in the premium training and inference chip segments.

China Sales and U.S. Policy Uncertainty Pressure Sentiment

Policy uncertainty has weighed heavily on NASDAQ:NVDA. CFO Colette Kress confirmed that while Washington has proposed a 15% tariff on AI chip exports to China, no legal framework exists, leaving the company able to sell processors without the additional cost for now. The U.S. recently agreed to export licenses covering up to 15% of revenue from China, but ambiguity over the rules risks volatility. This is critical as China has historically contributed more than 20% of NVIDIA’s data center sales. Any escalation in trade restrictions could materially cap upside, a risk magnified by competition from Alibaba’s low-cost processors, which have spooked investors.

Earnings Outlook and Growth Trajectory Through 2030

For Q3 FY26, NVIDIA has guided revenue to $54 billion with gross margins in the mid-70% range, underscoring resilience despite policy overhangs. At the current pace, FY26 revenue should reach $206.6 billion, with $185.9 billion from data centers alone. If the AI semiconductor market expands from today’s $202 billion to $355 billion by 2030 at a 15% CAGR, and NVIDIA retains a 90% market share, data center revenue could reach $320 billion. Adding $15 billion in gaming, $23 billion in automotive AI chips, and up to $15 billion from Omniverse and digital twin applications, total revenue could climb to $373 billion by 2030. At a conservative 45% net margin, this implies $167.8 billion in net income. Applying a valuation multiple of 45x earnings yields a market cap projection of $7.55 trillion, nearly double the current level. Even in a bearish case using the historical average P/E of 36.2, the implied market cap of $6.07 trillion suggests 43% upside by the end of the decade.

Competitive Pressures and Sector-Wide Weakness

Broad-based semiconductor weakness has compounded NVDA’s recent decline, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index down 2% and peers like AMD and Broadcom trading lower. Advanced Micro Devices is gaining traction in inference workloads, counting seven of the top ten AI firms as customers, while Broadcom has carved out a leadership role in networking and custom chip design. Still, NVIDIA’s entrenched CUDA ecosystem and proprietary interconnects continue to lock developers into its hardware. The real question is not whether NVDA loses its lead but whether its customers slow down CAPEX to more sustainable levels, compressing NVIDIA’s growth multiple.

Valuation and Market Positioning for NASDAQ:NVDA

At $172 per share, NVDA trades around 38 times forward earnings. This is rich compared to the semiconductor sector’s median but justified by growth visibility and dominance in a $3–4 trillion AI infrastructure buildout expected by 2030. The stock is up 30% year-to-date despite the recent pullback and more than 1,200% over five years, reflecting how central it has become to the generative AI revolution. Institutional investors like Ken Griffin have kept NVDA among their top holdings, while insider transactions, accessible here, show that executives continue to monetize gains without significant reductions in core holdings.

Technical Outlook and Investor Sentiment

From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:NVDA has broken below its 20-day simple moving average for the first time since May and tested its 50-day SMA support. If the decline extends, the $153 zone represents the next critical support from prior cycle highs. Resistance stands firm near the $184.47 record, with short-term momentum tilted bearish until clarity emerges on China tariffs and September 8 Goldman Sachs conference updates. UBS has cautioned that the AI trade is maturing after doubling the Nasdaq since late 2022, suggesting investors need to be more selective. Yet, NVDA remains the bellwether of AI infrastructure, and any moderation in growth still leaves it far ahead of rivals in scale, margins, and ecosystem lock-in.

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