Nvidia Stock Price Reclaims $198 as It Denies the Kyber Delay Report

Nvidia clawed back above $198 on Tuesday, July 7, rebounding more than 1% after the company forcefully denied a report claiming its next-generation Kyber NVL144 AI rack had been pushed back to 2028. The stock traded near $198.34, recovering from the prior session's close of $195.55 as management's insistence that its "roadmap is intact" eased fears about the AI chipmaker's product timeline. Yet the bounce ran straight into a familiar barrier, with NVDA rejecting the $198 to $203 resistance zone that has capped it within a descending channel. The move underscored a striking anomaly: despite its dominance as the primary AI chip supplier, Nvidia has gained just 5% in 2026, badly trailing a semiconductor sector that has soared, with the SOXX ETF up 59% and rival AMD up more than 100%. Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs has called the stock's valuation "compelling," setting up a debate between a crowded-trade laggard and an undervalued AI leader. What follows breaks down the forces pulling Nvidia in opposite directions, the technical levels that matter, and the catalysts before the company's August 26 earnings.

Nvidia Bounces to $198 as It Denies the Kyber Delay Report

The immediate catalyst for Nvidia's rebound was the company's rebuttal of a damaging report. Shares rose more than 1% after Nvidia refuted a report that said its next-generation Kyber AI rack was delayed, with the stock climbing from its July 6 close of $195.55 toward $198.34. The denial reduced the market's concern about the impact on Nvidia's AI roadmap, which remains critical to the company's projected growth.

The stock's recovery, however, encountered resistance. NVDA at $198.34 is rejecting the $198 to $203 resistance level within a descending channel, a technical pattern that has contained the stock's recent action. The rejection at this level highlights the challenge facing the recovery, with sellers active in the $198 to $203 zone. The stock's inability to break decisively above the resistance reflects the bearish technical structure that has weighed on shares.

The trading context frames the move. On July 6, NVDA fluctuated between $194.00 and $197.55, closing at $195.55, up 0.37% on the day. The stock's 52-week range spans a high of $236.54 to a low of $157.34, placing the current level well below the peak but comfortably above the trough. Nvidia's market capitalization stands at roughly $4.736 trillion, cementing its position as one of the most valuable companies in the world.

The recent price action has been weak. Over the last 10 days, NVDA declined on 7 occasions, resulting in a total decrease of 7.19%. The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, a position that some analysts view as a potential buying opportunity. However, the technical signals have been mixed, with several negative indicators suggesting the stock could perform weakly in the coming days or weeks.

The Kyber denial provided a temporary lift, but the broader picture remains challenging. The stock's rebound to $198.34 reflects the market's relief that the AI roadmap remains on track, but the rejection at the $198 to $203 resistance underscores the bearish structure. Nvidia's position within the descending channel, combined with its underperformance relative to peers, frames a complex setup. The stock's ability to break above resistance and escape the channel will be key to determining whether the recovery extends or whether the bearish trend reasserts itself. For now, the Kyber denial has bought Nvidia a bounce, but the stock faces significant technical hurdles.

The Kyber NVL144 Scare and Nvidia's "Roadmap Is Intact" Rebuttal

The Kyber episode illustrates how sensitive Nvidia's stock has become to news about its product roadmap. Reports suggested that Nvidia's upcoming Kyber NVL144 AI platform would be pushed back to 2028, raising concerns about a potential delay in the company's next-generation technology. Given the centrality of the AI roadmap to Nvidia's growth prospects, the report weighed on sentiment before the company responded.

Nvidia's rebuttal was firm. The company denied the report, saying the Kyber NVL144 development was on schedule and that its roadmap remained intact. Nvidia told Bloomberg that its roadmap is intact, disputing the report from SemiAnalysis, and confirmed to CNBC that development of the Kyber NVL144 was still on track. That direct denial addressed the market's concerns, reassuring investors that the AI roadmap had not been disrupted.

The stock's reaction reflected the significance of the news. The denial boosted the stock price by over 1%, reducing the market's concern about the impact on Nvidia's AI roadmap. The positive reaction underscored how much the stock's valuation depends on the timely execution of its product pipeline. Any perceived delay in the roadmap can weigh on sentiment, while confirmation that development is on track can lift the shares.

The AI roadmap remains central to Nvidia's growth story. As the primary supplier of AI chips, Nvidia's ability to deliver next-generation platforms on schedule is critical to maintaining its dominance and supporting its projected revenue growth. The Kyber NVL144 represents a key part of that roadmap, and any delay would have implications for the company's competitive position and its ability to capitalize on the surging demand for AI infrastructure. The denial preserved confidence in the roadmap.

The episode highlights the market's focus on execution risk. Nvidia's premium valuation, even after the pullback, rests on expectations of continued rapid growth driven by its AI chip dominance. Reports of delays, even when denied, can trigger volatility as investors reassess the risks to the growth story. The Kyber scare and Nvidia's rebuttal demonstrate the stock's sensitivity to roadmap news, with the denial providing a bounce but the underlying concern about execution lingering. For Nvidia, maintaining its roadmap and delivering its next-generation platforms on schedule will be essential to justifying its valuation and sustaining investor confidence. The Kyber denial addressed the immediate concern, but the market's reaction underscores the importance of execution to the stock's trajectory, with any future roadmap developments likely to move the shares.

Its Own Chip Group's Worst Performer: Up Just 5% YTD

One of the most striking features of Nvidia's 2026 performance is its underperformance relative to its own sector. Despite its dominance as the primary AI chip supplier, NVDA is up just 5% this year so far, a performance overshadowed by the broader semiconductor sector. That underperformance has made Nvidia its own chip group's worst performer, a surprising outcome given its central role in the AI boom.

The comparison with peers is stark. The SOXX semiconductor ETF has gained 59% year-to-date, while AMD has surged more than 100% and memory stocks like Micron have been rallying on increased memory demand. Nvidia's 5% gain pales in comparison, reflecting a divergence between the company's operational dominance and its stock performance. The gap has puzzled investors, given Nvidia's position at the center of the AI infrastructure buildout.

The underperformance is particularly notable given the sector's strength. The semiconductor industry and AI chips have done well in 2026, driven by the surging demand for AI infrastructure. AMD's 100%+ gain reflects the market's enthusiasm for its AI story, while Micron's rally reflects the increased demand for memory chips. Nvidia, despite being the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, has lagged its peers, a divergence that has drawn attention from analysts.

The divergence raises questions about the drivers. Nvidia's dominance as the AI chip leader would ordinarily suggest strong stock performance, yet the shares have trailed the sector significantly. The underperformance reflects factors specific to Nvidia's stock, including its valuation and positioning, rather than any deterioration in its business. The company's fundamentals remain strong, but the stock has struggled to keep pace with peers that started the year at less elevated levels.

The underperformance frames the investment debate. For bulls, Nvidia's lag relative to peers represents an opportunity, with the stock's 5% gain leaving room for a catch-up rally if the market recognizes its value. Goldman Sachs and other analysts have pointed to the underperformance as a reason to see the stock as undervalued. For bears, the underperformance reflects the challenges facing a crowded, expensive name that struggled to attract new buyers. The divergence between Nvidia and its peers, with AMD up 100%+ and the SOXX up 59% against Nvidia's 5%, captures the complexity of the setup. Nvidia's dominance has not translated into stock outperformance, a puzzle that will likely resolve as the market reassesses the company's valuation and growth prospects. The stock's lag represents both a source of frustration for holders and a potential opportunity if the catch-up materializes.

Why Nvidia Lags: The Crowded-Trade Problem

The explanation for Nvidia's underperformance lies partly in its status as a crowded, expensive trade. One factor is Nvidia's entry price in 2026, as the stock has been one of the market's priciest and most crowded names, making it harder to boost its multiple. That crowded positioning has constrained the stock's ability to rally, even as the underlying business has thrived.

The crowded-trade dynamic reflects the stock's popularity. Nvidia's dominance in AI chips made it a consensus favorite, with investors piling into the stock in anticipation of continued growth. That popularity drove the valuation to elevated levels, leaving less room for further multiple expansion. When a stock becomes as crowded as Nvidia, the marginal buyer becomes harder to find, limiting the potential for gains even as the business grows.

The contrast with peers illustrates the point. AMD and Micron started the year at less elevated levels and saw stronger re-rating from the surge in AI demand. Those stocks had more room to appreciate, as their lower starting valuations allowed for greater multiple expansion as AI demand surged. Nvidia, by contrast, entered the year at a premium valuation, leaving it with less upside potential from multiple expansion. The re-rating that lifted AMD and Micron bypassed Nvidia.

The valuation history underscores the challenge. Nvidia's forward P/E of 21.7x, while attractive by historical standards, reflects a compression from the elevated multiples the stock commanded during its peak. The stock's premium positioning meant that even as its earnings grew, the multiple compressed, limiting the price appreciation. That dynamic explains why Nvidia's 5% gain trailed the sector despite its strong fundamentals.

The crowded-trade problem frames the path forward. Nvidia's underperformance reflects its elevated starting valuation and crowded positioning rather than any weakness in its business. As the multiple has compressed toward more reasonable levels, the stock may become more attractive to new buyers, potentially setting up a catch-up rally. Goldman Sachs has argued that the current valuation is compelling, suggesting that the crowded-trade problem may be resolving as the multiple normalizes. For Nvidia, the challenge is to attract new buyers at a valuation that, while lower than its peak, still reflects the company's dominance. The crowded-trade dynamic has constrained the stock in 2026, but the compression in the multiple could create an opportunity if the market recognizes the value. The resolution of the crowded-trade problem, with the multiple now near reasonable levels, will be key to whether Nvidia can close the gap with its peers.

Goldman Calls 21.7x "Compelling"

Goldman Sachs has emerged as a prominent voice arguing that Nvidia's valuation is attractive after the stock's pullback. A five-star Goldman Sachs analyst said that Nvidia's valuation is quite compelling, pointing to the stock's forward P/E of 21.7 times. That multiple looks attractive because it is near the average S&P 500 P/E and far below the company's own five-year P/E average of 72x.

The valuation argument rests on the multiple compression. Nvidia's forward P/E of 21.7x represents a dramatic decline from its five-year average of 72x, reflecting the multiple compression that has accompanied the stock's underperformance. At 21.7x, Nvidia trades near the S&P 500 average, an unusual position for a company with its growth profile and market dominance. Goldman argues that this valuation does not fully account for the potential revenue growth ahead.

The growth backdrop supports the bull case. Goldman notes that the big cloud providers like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are gearing up for more investments in their AI infrastructure, with hyperscaler AI capex projected to rise from $650 billion in 2026 to $1 trillion in 2027. That surge in capex represents a massive tailwind for Nvidia, the primary supplier of the AI chips that power the buildout. Goldman argues that the current valuation may not be fully accounting for the potential revenue growth from this capex wave.

The valuation case reflects a broader view. Goldman sees Nvidia as an undervalued stock given its current pullback, arguing that the multiple compression has created an attractive entry point. The analyst's five-star rating lends weight to the view, positioning Goldman among the bulls who see the stock's underperformance as an opportunity. The valuation argument centers on the disconnect between the stock's compressed multiple and its strong growth prospects.

The Goldman call frames the bull case for Nvidia. The forward P/E of 21.7x, near the S&P 500 average and far below the five-year average of 72x, suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its historical valuation and its growth prospects. The projected surge in hyperscaler capex from $650 billion to $1 trillion provides a powerful tailwind that the current valuation may not fully reflect. For bulls, Goldman's argument that the valuation is compelling supports the case for a catch-up rally, with the stock's underperformance and multiple compression creating an opportunity. The valuation case rests on the expectation that Nvidia's earnings will continue to grow rapidly, driven by the AI capex wave, while the multiple remains reasonable. Goldman's view that the stock is undervalued positions it among the analysts who see significant upside for Nvidia, contrasting with the bearish concerns about the AI trade.

The $1 Trillion Capex Wave

The central pillar of the bull case for Nvidia is the massive wave of AI infrastructure spending by the major cloud providers. Hyperscaler AI capex is projected to rise from $650 billion in 2026 to $1 trillion in 2027, a surge that represents an enormous tailwind for Nvidia as the primary supplier of AI chips. That capex wave underpins the expectation of continued rapid revenue growth for the company.

The scale of the spending is staggering. The big cloud providers, including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, are gearing up for more investments in their AI infrastructure, driving the projected increase in capex. That spending flows directly to Nvidia, whose GPUs and networking platforms form the backbone of the AI data centers being built. The projected rise to $1 trillion in 2027 reflects the accelerating pace of the AI buildout.

The capex wave supports Nvidia's growth story. As the dominant supplier of AI chips, Nvidia captures a significant share of the hyperscaler spending, translating the capex into revenue. The projected increase from $650 billion to $1 trillion represents a substantial expansion of the addressable market, providing a runway for continued revenue growth. The capex wave is the foundation of the bull case, underpinning the expectation that Nvidia's earnings will continue to compound.

The spending reflects the strategic importance of AI. The major cloud providers view AI infrastructure as critical to their competitive positions, driving them to invest heavily despite the enormous costs. That strategic imperative supports the durability of the capex wave, as the providers compete to build the most capable AI infrastructure. Nvidia benefits from this competition, as each provider seeks to acquire the chips needed to power its AI ambitions.

The capex wave frames the outlook for Nvidia. The projected surge in hyperscaler spending from $650 billion to $1 trillion provides a powerful tailwind that supports the bull case for the stock. Goldman Sachs has argued that the current valuation does not fully account for the revenue growth from this capex wave, suggesting that the stock is undervalued. For Nvidia, the capex wave represents the key driver of its projected growth, with the company positioned to capture a significant share of the spending. The durability of the capex wave, driven by the strategic importance of AI to the cloud providers, supports the expectation of continued revenue growth. However, the bear case questions whether the capex wave can be sustained and whether the returns on the AI investment will justify the spending. The resolution of that debate will be key to Nvidia's trajectory, with the capex wave serving as the foundation of the bull case but also the focus of the bear concerns about the AI trade.

Reading the Chart: Resistance at $198–$203, Support at $193

The technical picture for Nvidia centers on a descending channel that has contained the stock's recent action. NVDA is rejecting the $198 to $203 resistance level within the channel, a zone that has repeatedly capped rallies. The stock's inability to break above this resistance reflects the bearish structure that has weighed on shares, with the descending channel signaling a downtrend.

The momentum indicators reflect the cautious setup. The RSI reading of 46.58 sits below the neutral 50 midline, indicating that the stock lacks strong bullish momentum. That reading aligns with the stock's position within the descending channel and its rejection at resistance, suggesting that the recovery faces headwinds. The RSI's position below 50 reflects the weak momentum that has characterized the stock's recent action.

The support levels frame the downside. Accumulated volume provides support at $194.97, with a further trend floor at $193.10. A break below $193.10 would firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. The stock's position in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend places these support levels in focus, with a break lower signaling potential deterioration.

The resistance levels define the upside. Beyond the immediate $198 to $203 resistance, the stock faces resistance at $199.57 from accumulated volume. A breakout above $212 would signal that NVDA is escaping the descending channel, a bullish development that would open the path toward higher levels. The $212 level represents the key threshold for a bullish breakout, with the stock needing to clear the channel resistance to reverse the bearish structure.

The technical setup reflects the tension between the bearish channel and the potential for a recovery. The stock's rejection at the $198 to $203 resistance, combined with the RSI below 50, suggests that the near-term risk is tilted toward continued weakness. However, the stock's position in the lower part of a rising trend, near support at $193 to $195, could present a buying opportunity if the support holds. For the stock to reverse the bearish structure, it must break above the $198 to $203 resistance and ultimately clear $212 to escape the descending channel. A break below $193.10 would signal further deterioration and potentially a trend shift. The battle between the channel resistance and the support levels will determine Nvidia's near-term direction, with the Kyber denial providing a bounce but the bearish structure keeping the stock capped. The technical picture reflects a stock at an inflection point, with the descending channel defining the bearish trend and the support levels marking the potential floor.

The Short Setup: $184.70 Target vs the $212 Breakout

The technical structure has prompted some traders to consider short positions, reflecting the bearish channel. A short entry has been identified below $198.30, with a short target of $184.70 and a stop loss set at a day close above $203.40. That setup reflects the view that the stock could decline within the descending channel, targeting lower levels.

The short thesis rests on the channel. The descending channel signals a downtrend, and the rejection at the $198 to $203 resistance supports the case for further declines. The short target of $184.70 represents a meaningful decline from the current level near $198, reflecting the potential for the stock to fall toward the lower boundary of the channel. The short setup capitalizes on the bearish structure that has contained the stock.

The stop loss defines the risk. A day close above $203.40 would weaken the trade thesis, signaling that the stock is breaking above the resistance and potentially escaping the channel. That level serves as the threshold for invalidating the short position, with a close above it suggesting that the bearish structure is breaking down. The stop loss reflects the risk that the stock could reverse and break higher.

The breakout scenario offers the bullish counterpoint. An active breakout above $212 would signal that NVDA is on its way out of the descending channel, a bullish development that would invalidate the short thesis and open the path toward higher levels. The $212 level represents the key threshold for a bullish breakout, with a move above it signaling that the stock has escaped the bearish structure. The breakout scenario contrasts with the short setup, reflecting the two-sided nature of the technical picture.

The competing scenarios frame the near-term outlook. The short setup, with a target of $184.70, reflects the bearish view that the stock could decline within the descending channel. The breakout scenario, with a threshold at $212, reflects the bullish view that the stock could escape the channel and rally. The stock's current position near $198, rejecting the $198 to $203 resistance, sits between these scenarios, with the direction depending on whether the stock breaks above resistance or declines within the channel. For traders, the setup offers defined levels: a short below $198.30 targeting $184.70, with a stop above $203.40, and a bullish breakout above $212. The resolution of the technical picture will determine which scenario plays out, with the Kyber denial providing a bounce but the descending channel keeping the bearish structure intact. The battle between the short target at $184.70 and the breakout at $212 captures the tension in the stock's near-term outlook.

Wall Street's Bull Case: Targets Near $300

Despite the stock's underperformance and the bearish technical structure, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia. According to 38 analysts, NVIDIA has a Strong Buy consensus rating as of July 7, 2026. Analysts have set a price target of $298.87, while MarketBeat cites a target of $303.84, both reflecting substantial upside from the current level near $198.

The Strong Buy consensus reflects broad conviction. The rating from 38 analysts signals that Wall Street views Nvidia favorably, despite the stock's 5% year-to-date gain and its underperformance relative to peers. The consensus reflects confidence in the company's dominance as the primary AI chip supplier and its ability to capitalize on the surging demand for AI infrastructure. The Strong Buy rating positions Nvidia among the analyst community's favored stocks.

The price targets imply significant upside. The target of $298.87, along with MarketBeat's $303.84, suggests that analysts see the stock rising toward $300, a substantial increase from the current level near $198. That implied upside of roughly 50% reflects the analysts' confidence in Nvidia's growth prospects, driven by the AI capex wave and the company's market dominance. The targets near $300 anchor the bull case, suggesting that the stock's underperformance represents an opportunity.

The bullish sentiment extends beyond the targets. Wall Street sees huge upside ahead for Nvidia stock, according to analysts, reflecting the broad optimism about the company's prospects. Goldman Sachs has argued that the valuation is compelling, positioning the stock as undervalued given its pullback. The combination of the Strong Buy consensus, the targets near $300, and the valuation argument supports the case for a recovery in the stock.

The bull case rests on Nvidia's fundamentals and the AI capex wave. The Strong Buy consensus and the targets near $300 reflect the analysts' confidence that Nvidia will continue to grow rapidly, driven by the surging demand for AI chips. The projected increase in hyperscaler capex from $650 billion to $1 trillion provides a powerful tailwind, supporting the expectation of continued revenue growth. For bulls, the stock's underperformance and compressed valuation represent an opportunity, with the targets near $300 implying substantial upside. The Strong Buy consensus from 38 analysts validates the bullish view, positioning Nvidia as a favored stock despite its 2026 lag. However, the bull case depends on the durability of the AI capex wave and the company's ability to maintain its dominance, factors that the bear case questions. The resolution of that debate will determine whether the stock reaches the analysts' targets near $300 or remains constrained by the concerns about the AI trade.

The Bear Case: Burry, Chinese Models, and AI-Bubble Fears

The bear case for Nvidia rests on concerns about the sustainability of the AI trade and emerging competitive threats. Prominent investor Michael Burry has warned that "the end is nigh" for the AI trade, a bearish call that came days after he shorted Micron stock. Burry's warning reflects skepticism about the durability of the AI boom that has driven the semiconductor sector.

Burry's bearish stance carries weight given his track record. Known for his prescient bets, Burry's warning about the AI trade and his short position on Micron signal a view that the sector may be overextended. That skepticism extends to Nvidia, as the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, with the bear case questioning whether the enormous capex and elevated valuations can be sustained. Burry's warning adds a cautionary voice to the debate.

Competitive threats compound the concerns. US companies are seeking cheaper Chinese AI models, pressuring Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia stocks. The emergence of cheaper alternatives could threaten the demand for Nvidia's premium chips, as companies seek to reduce the costs of their AI infrastructure. That competitive pressure represents a risk to Nvidia's dominance and its pricing power, factors central to its growth story.

The macro backdrop adds to the caution. Stocks across tech have declined over the last month, as recent economic reports have made Wall Street fearful of a looming recession. A recession would pressure the AI capex wave, as companies might scale back their infrastructure investments amid economic uncertainty. That risk challenges the bull case, which depends on the continued surge in hyperscaler spending. The recession fears have weighed on tech stocks broadly, including Nvidia.

The bear case frames the risks to Nvidia's growth story. Burry's warning about the AI trade, the competitive threat from cheaper Chinese models, and the recession fears collectively challenge the bull case. The concerns center on the sustainability of the AI capex wave and Nvidia's ability to maintain its dominance and pricing power. For bears, the stock's underperformance reflects these risks, with the elevated valuations and enormous capex creating vulnerability. The emergence of cheaper Chinese AI models represents a particular threat, as it could erode the demand for Nvidia's premium chips. The recession fears add to the caution, as an economic downturn would pressure the capex wave. While the bull case rests on the durability of the AI boom, the bear case questions whether that boom can be sustained. The resolution of that debate will determine Nvidia's trajectory, with the bearish concerns about the AI trade contrasting with the bullish view of the company's dominance and growth prospects.