Oil Price Forecast - Oil Sink as WTI Drops to $63.31, Brent Retreats to $67.85 on OPEC+ Supply Plans and Kurdistan Restart

Oil Price Forecast — WTI Falls to $63.31, Brent Drops to $67.85 as Kurdistan Shipments Restart and OPEC+ Eyes November Output Boost

WTI Crude (CL=F) Falls Below $64 as OPEC+ Signals More Supply

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 3.67% to $63.31 per barrel, breaking under the $64 handle after briefly testing $65 last week. The selloff came as OPEC+ prepared to add another 137,000 barrels per day in November, part of its phased unwinding of earlier cuts. While the headline numbers suggest more oil is coming, the cartel has consistently underproduced, with actual output running almost 500,000 bpd below targets. Traders are discounting that gap and focusing on the message that OPEC+ is chasing market share, which immediately pressured futures lower.

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Retreats From $70 Peak to $67.85

Brent crude futures declined 3.25% to $67.85, giving up Friday’s two-month high above $70 per barrel. The drop highlights how quickly sentiment shifted once Kurdistan oil returned and OPEC+ confirmed more supply ahead. Analysts warn that Brent’s inability to hold $70 exposes it to further losses, with technical support around $66.50 and then $65. Still, supply risks from Russia and the Middle East create a floor—last week Brent gained over 4% on Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries before rolling over on Monday’s supply headlines.

Iraqi Kurdistan Oil Exports Resume at 150,000–160,000 bpd

Baghdad confirmed that flows from the Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan terminal restarted after a two-and-a-half-year halt. Current shipments are running near 160,000 barrels per day, with full capacity expected to reach 230,000 bpd in the coming weeks. This restart reintroduces a meaningful tranche of supply into global markets just as seasonal demand eases. The timing compounds downside pressure on both Brent and WTI, which were already vulnerable after their steep rallies the week prior.

Regional Benchmarks Confirm Broad Weakness in Oil Markets

The selloff was not limited to WTI and Brent. Murban crude dropped 3.19% to $68.98, Bonny Light fell 2.84% to $78.62, while Mars US declined 1.33% to $71.01. Gasoline futures tracked the weakness, slipping 2.17% to $1.993 per gallon, indicating refining margins are narrowing as consumption slows. The OPEC basket offered a small counterpoint, inching 0.46% higher to $71.83, but this modest gain reflected price lags more than genuine strength.

Saudi Arabia and BP Move Strategically Despite Price Declines

Even with crude benchmarks under pressure, Saudi Arabia is preparing to raise official selling prices for Asia in November, signaling Riyadh sees firm demand in the region. Meanwhile, BP (NYSE:BP) announced a $5 billion Gulf of Mexico investment, underscoring its long-term confidence in deepwater production economics. These moves show that producers are taking advantage of price resilience above $60 WTI and $65 Brent to lock in strategic projects despite near-term volatility.

Geopolitical Flashpoints Still Shape Market Psychology

Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries caused both Brent and WTI to gain over 4% last week, a reminder of how geopolitical disruptions can quickly reshape price action. Analysts expect Kyiv to intensify targeting of Russian refining and export hubs, threatening diesel and gasoline flows. Yet Monday’s market response revealed that new supply headlines—from OPEC+ and Kurdistan—can overwhelm geopolitical risk, at least in the short run.

Macro Tailwinds Fail to Lift Oil Prices

The macro backdrop should have supported crude. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) eased 0.25% to 95.32, and Treasury yields retreated with the 10-year note slipping to 4.144%, reflecting safe-haven demand as shutdown odds climbed beyond 70%. Typically, a weaker dollar boosts commodities, but the renewed supply outlook erased those tailwinds. This decoupling highlights how physical flows are dominating macro inputs in the oil market this week.

Investment Outlook: Bearish Short-Term, But Structural Risks Remain

With WTI at $63.31 and Brent at $67.85, the near-term tone is clearly bearish. Both benchmarks are trading back inside ranges that prevailed through August, with downside risk toward $62 WTI and $65 Brent if OPEC+ barrels and Kurdistan flows ramp up as expected. Still, structural risks remain bullish beneath the surface—Russian output erosion, Middle Eastern instability, and U.S. shale cost inflation above $60 per barrel suggest any deep correction could be temporary. For now, the market leans Sell near $65–70 resistance, but watch for medium-term re-entry opportunities if prices hold above $60 WTI.