Oracle Stock ORCL Price Surges to $305 on $455B RPO and TikTok Speculation

NYSE:ORCL stock surges past $305 on AI momentum and TikTok speculation

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) has delivered one of the most dramatic rallies of 2025, with shares climbing more than 81% year-to-date to trade around $305.15 and pushing its market capitalization to $867 billion. The stock is being re-rated not just as a legacy ERP software giant but as a key player in AI infrastructure and multi-cloud ecosystems. The announcement of $455 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), up 359% YoY, together with multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts, has reinforced investor conviction. On top of that, speculation of a potential role in a $40–$60 billion TikTok U.S. deal has added optionality that Wall Street is now pricing in.

AI cloud revenue growth positions Oracle against hyperscalers

In its fiscal Q1 2026, Oracle posted $14.93 billion in revenue, up 12% YoY, with cloud infrastructure becoming the main engine. Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) revenue jumped 55% YoY to $3.3 billion, while SaaS advanced 11% to $3.8 billion. Within SaaS, Fusion ERP delivered $1.0 billion with 17% growth, and NetSuite ERP also grew 16%. CEO Safra Catz said Oracle now expects $18 billion in IaaS revenue by FY2026, up from $10.2 billion in FY2025, showing 77% YoY expansion. Meanwhile, multi-cloud adoption is accelerating, with database revenues on AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud up 1,529% YoY, underscoring Oracle’s ability to monetize beyond its own stack.

Remaining performance obligations reshape long-term visibility

The headline figure from Oracle’s latest earnings was its $455 billion RPO, which grew by more than threefold year-over-year. This came from four mega-contracts signed in Q1, with more expected in the coming quarters. The company’s strategy of locking in long-duration deals provides revenue visibility that is rare among peers. Despite raising capital expenditures to more than $35 billion in FY2026, up 65% YoY to fund AI superclusters and global data centers, Oracle has maintained operating margins near 31% and net margins at 21%, proving it can balance hypergrowth with profitability.

TikTok speculation adds strategic optionality for NYSE:ORCL

Oracle’s name has resurfaced in Washington as the leading candidate to acquire TikTok’s U.S. operations, potentially for $40–$50 billion without the algorithm or $60 billion with it. With just $11 billion in cash, Oracle would need to fund a deal through debt or equity, but given its $867 billion market cap, the acquisition would represent only 7–8% of enterprise value. Oracle already hosts TikTok’s U.S. data under Project Texas, which could make it the natural operator in any settlement between the U.S. and China. A scheduled call between President Trump and President Xi later this month could determine the deal’s fate.

Valuation context: Oracle trades between AI leaders and cloud majors

Oracle currently trades at a forward P/E of 44.25 and EV/Sales of 16.15. This positions it above cloud incumbents like Microsoft (33× P/E), Amazon (34.9× P/E), and Google (25× P/E), but closer to AI leaders such as NVIDIA (39.6× P/E) and Broadcom (54× P/E). Compared with Palantir (266× P/E) and Snowflake (96× EV/Sales), Oracle looks inexpensive. The market is treating Oracle as a hybrid—both an AI infrastructure supplier and a hyperscaler. Investors are paying a premium for AI exposure but not the extreme multiples attached to pure AI plays.

Balance sheet shows high leverage but consistent cash generation

Oracle has taken on significant leverage to fund its growth, with $111.6 billion in debt and a debt-to-equity ratio above 452%. Still, the company generated $21.5 billion in operating cash flow over the last year, offsetting negative levered free cash flow of –$2.83 billion from capex investments. With $11 billion in cash reserves, Oracle remains liquid enough to manage near-term maturities. The dividend yield sits at 0.66%, paying $2.00 per share annually, with a payout ratio of 41.67%, showing capital discipline even during heavy investment cycles.

Ownership structure highlights insider control of NYSE:ORCL

One of the unique features of Oracle is insider ownership—founder Larry Ellison and insiders hold 41.07% of shares outstanding, giving management tight control over strategy. Institutional investors account for 44.67%, ensuring Wall Street remains committed to the growth narrative. Insider transactions, available via TradingNews insider tracker, show limited selling activity despite the stock’s rally. That balance between concentrated insider power and strong institutional backing has insulated Oracle from activist pressure while enabling bold bets on AI infrastructure.

Analyst targets and growth forecasts for NYSE:ORCL

Consensus analyst estimates put Oracle’s 12-month target at $333.49, about 9% above current levels, with the most bullish forecasts reaching $410–$491. Earnings are projected to climb from $6.79 EPS in FY2026 to $8.06 in FY2027, an 18.6% growth rate. Revenue is forecast to grow from $67.09 billion in FY2026 to $81.8 billion in FY2027, a 22% increase. For comparison, Oracle delivered $14.93 billion revenue in Q1 2026, up 12% YoY, showing that momentum is tracking well toward forecasts.

Technical setup signals overbought but strong momentum

Technically, Oracle trades well above its moving averages, with the 50-day at $246.18 and the 200-day at $186.03. Current price action at $305 shows an RSI of 75, in overbought territory, suggesting potential for consolidation. Resistance sits near the all-time high of $345.72, while support is layered at $290–$310. Trading volumes surged during AI announcements and TikTok headlines, reflecting robust institutional accumulation.

Thta's TradingNEWS