Palantir Stock Price Forecast - PLTR Climbs to $182 on $1B U.K. Military AI Deal, Nears $190 Peak

Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) Rises to $182.39 as U.K. Confirms $1B Military AI Deal

Palantir Technologies NASDAQ:PLTR ended Friday at $182.39, climbing 3.06% and extending a powerful rally that has pushed shares up more than 134% in 2025. The latest move follows confirmation that the U.K. government will spend over $1 billion on Palantir software across five years, expanding an existing defense contract. The timing aligned with President Donald Trump’s visit to London, cementing Palantir as a key NATO-aligned data and AI supplier. Shares remain just below the $190 all-time high set on August 12, but the political backdrop has added fuel to an already historic run.

European Expansion Anchored by London Headquarters

The new British deal is more than a software purchase — it secures Palantir’s European defense headquarters in London, supported by a total regional investment exceeding $2 billion. This creates a hub for AI-enabled military development with the U.K. Ministry of Defence, reinforcing Palantir’s long-term role in NATO infrastructure. With trailing twelve-month revenues of $3.44 billion, a multi-billion-dollar European pipeline represents a structural shift for growth. Palantir is no longer just a U.S. defense vendor but a transatlantic AI partner with global scale ambitions.

Stock Performance Outpaces Every Major Benchmark

Palantir’s stock has delivered extraordinary returns. Over the past year, shares surged 395.22%, compared with a 16.64% gain for the S&P 500. Over three years, the total return stands at 2,220.48%, and the five-year rally reached 1,723.90%. Trading activity remains elevated, with Friday’s volume at 108.1 million versus a 70.1 million average. Intraday, PLTR swung between $176.71 and $184.41, reflecting a 21-day average true range of 4.43% — high, but manageable for institutional risk models. Momentum indicators place PLTR in the market’s top percentile for relative strength.

Financial Metrics Show Profitability Against Rich Multiples

Palantir’s market capitalization has swelled to $432.69 billion, but valuations remain extreme. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 607.97 and a forward P/E of 212.77. Price-to-Sales sits at 133.91, while Price-to-Book is 72.98. Still, profitability has begun to validate premium pricing. Net margin is 22.18%, return on equity stands at 15.20%, and levered free cash flow reached $1.27 billion on $3.44 billion revenue. Quarterly earnings growth accelerated 143.6% year-on-year, while top-line expanded 48%. Analysts forecast 2025 revenue at $4.16 billion, rising to $5.61 billion in 2026, an annual increase of nearly 35%.

Wall Street Targets Split Between Caution and Aggression

Analyst outlooks diverge sharply. Wedbush holds an Outperform rating with a $200 target, while TheStreet Pro recently raised its projection to $218 on technical momentum. By contrast, Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-Weight stance at $155, and Jefferies keeps an Underperform rating with a $116 target. The median analyst estimate remains at $151.74, below the current price, but the bullish camp emphasizes government stickiness as a justification for sustained premiums. Piper Sandler maintains an Overweight at $182, aligning closely with market levels, while RBC Capital continues to argue downside risk with a $45 target.

Institutional Flow and Insider Activity Support Bullish Tone

Institutional investors control 57.38% of Palantir’s float, while insiders retain 3.62%. Short interest has fallen to 49.34 million shares, just 2.27% of float, down from 54.76 million in July. The reduction signals fading bearish conviction. Investors tracking insider activity can review recent transactions here. With broad institutional ownership and declining shorts, positioning favors further accumulation even at elevated multiples.

Competitive Edge in Defense and Artificial Intelligence

Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) continues to penetrate commercial markets, but the company’s defining moat remains its entrenched defense position. Unlike NVIDIA or Microsoft, Palantir’s strength lies in government contracts where switching costs are prohibitive. Salesforce’s Marc Benioff acknowledged Palantir’s software as “the most expensive enterprise system” he had ever seen, underlining its premium model. CEO Alex Karp has defended the pricing by emphasizing long-term value creation. The stickiness of U.S. and allied contracts makes Palantir far more than a high-growth software vendor — it is increasingly viewed as a strategic defense partner.

Technical Structure Builds Toward New Breakout

Chart patterns show a maturing cup base with the $190 pivot acting as the trigger point. If the handle formation develops cleanly, breakout targets extend toward $205 and $218, in line with bullish analyst projections. The 50-day moving average sits at $163.03, offering first support, while the 200-day average at $116.14 defines the long-term floor. Relative Strength Rating of 97 and a Composite Rating of 98 put PLTR in the top echelon of growth stocks. A decisive push above $190 could bring institutional breakout buying, while dips to $176–$178 provide accumulation zones.

Government Integration as Catalyst for NATO Era Growth

Palantir’s value proposition is magnified by geopolitical dynamics. The U.S. Army and Air Force already represent billion-dollar clients, and with the U.K. expansion, Palantir becomes a cornerstone in NATO’s digital infrastructure. Trump-era policy shifts toward expanded defense budgets further tilt the playing field in Palantir’s favor. In essence, Palantir is less of a discretionary vendor and more of an indispensable contractor. This makes revenue visibility stronger than for most AI peers, particularly in volatile global markets.

Investment Call on NASDAQ:PLTR

At $182.39, just shy of its $190 peak, Palantir reflects both extreme valuation and powerful tailwinds. The bullish case rests on accelerating defense contracts, $2B European expansion, 48% revenue growth, $1.27B free cash flow, and sticky government demand. Risks include premium multiples, potential international pushback, and heavy reliance on public sector budgets. With institutional flows, technical structure, and global contracts aligning, the balance tilts bullish. The rating: Buy, with dip entries near $176 targeting $200–$218 as contract momentum and AI adoption expand into 2026.

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