Ripple XRP Price Forecast: Will $2.91 Hold For as Whales Unload?

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: Whale Pressure, Regulatory Relief, and the $3.00 Breakout Battle

XRP-USD Under Whale Pressure and Distribution Flows

Ripple’s XRP-USD has been sliding after failing to hold momentum above $3.50, now trading around $2.91 and testing the crucial $2.80–$2.85 demand band. Whale activity has amplified volatility: wallets holding 10–100 million XRP unloaded close to 460 million tokens in the past week, a sharp reversal in distribution that pressed the price down by more than 13% across six trading days. In contrast, mid-tier wallets between 1–10 million XRP absorbed about 130 million tokens, a sign that not all institutional hands are leaving, but the scale of the whale outflows remains decisive. With 93% of circulating supply still in profit, XRP is at risk of a familiar cycle: in both 2018 and 2021, profit-taking cascaded into losses of 85%–95%, making current on-chain profitability a red flag despite dip-buyer interest.

Technical Fragility: Key Levels on the XRP-USD Chart

XRP has broken beneath its 50-day moving average at $2.95 and slipped out of a symmetrical triangle that previously contained the rally. The rejection at $3.50 turned into a descending triangle on the 4H chart, with flat support at $2.80–$2.85 and lower highs compressing toward it. If sellers pierce $2.80, liquidity sweeps could drag price into the $2.74–$2.63 zone, where Fibonacci confluence and past accumulation lie. On the upside, the first resistance now sits tightly at $3.02–$3.10, with further ceilings at $3.17 and $3.30. Only a close above $3.38 would restore strong bullish footing and re-target $3.50–$4.00. Oscillators highlight the tension: RSI at 35.8 approaches oversold, while Stochastics confirm pressure from the sell-side.

Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech and Macro Drag

The short-term fate of XRP is tied to macro triggers. Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, the dollar is firming on inflation anxiety. Retail earnings like Home Depot’s warning on tariff-driven costs have reinforced stagflation fears, pushing risk assets lower. In the last 24 hours, XRP fell 5.5%, Ethereum slid under $4,100, and Bitcoin retreated toward $112,000, underscoring sensitivity to Fed policy tone. Should Powell open the door to easing, a relief rally toward $3.25–$3.50 is possible. Conversely, hawkish guidance risks accelerating XRP’s decline to the $2.60 handle.

Long-Term Structure: XRP-USD Trend Still Up

Despite near-term fragility, XRP’s long-term trajectory remains constructive. Both the 50-day and 200-day averages are upward sloping, and the macro bullish channel from late 2024 remains intact unless $2.40 gives way. Price models stretching into 2026–2027 project a climb toward $5–$7.20 if XRP consolidates above $3.00 and successfully clears the $3.50 threshold. Looking further out, adoption-driven models forecast $10.40 by 2026, $18 by 2027, and as much as $31 by 2028, extending to $94 by 2030 if Ripple captures share of the $18.9 trillion tokenization market.

Settlement Victory and Regulatory Relief

The SEC lawsuit resolution in August lifted the heaviest regulatory anchor. Courts ruled that XRP is not a security, reopening institutional participation in the U.S. and sparking renewed corridor expansions for RippleNet’s On-Demand Liquidity. This win also paved the way for speculation about a potential Ripple IPO and fresh central bank partnerships around CBDCs. Analysts peg a post-settlement fair range of $4.00–$4.50, with a bull case near $6.50 if inflows accelerate. The legal clarity fundamentally reshapes the medium-term outlook, making XRP less about courtroom uncertainty and more about execution against competitors in remittances and tokenization.

Profitability Risks: Too Much Green on the Ledger

Current data show 93% of XRP supply in profit, a historically dangerous condition. Whenever profitability surpassed 90%, sharp drawdowns followed as investors cashed in. Profit-taking risk is amplified by exchange inflows: net flows recently turned +$2.05M, suggesting some holders are positioning to sell into rallies around $2.95–$3.06. This contrasts with periods of negative flows that supported previous surges. The next weeks will test whether long-term holders absorb supply or whether cascading exits push XRP back toward $2.20–$2.40, an accumulation shelf from earlier this year.

XRP vs. New Entrants: Coldware, Remittix, and LayerBrett

XRP’s established market cap above $190 billion makes it a heavyweight, but the 2025 cycle is also defined by aggressive challengers. Coldware ($COLD), combining hardware with blockchain-powered tools, has seen a 300% presale rally and is attracting whale flows that previously chased XRP. Remittix (RTX), priced below $0.10, has raised $20.4 million and promises retail-first remittance corridors in 30+ countries. Meanwhile, Layer Brett ($LBRETT), running as an Ethereum Layer 2 meme-hybrid, touts 25,000% staking APYs during presale and has become a lightning rod for retail. The contrast is stark: while XRP battles overhead resistance at $2.94–$3.10, presale tokens capture speculative momentum with room for exponential gains from low bases.

Tokenization and Adoption Roadmap

Ripple’s ambition goes beyond remittances. By 2033, institutional forecasts place the tokenization market at $18.9 trillion, with Ripple aiming to provide custodial and settlement infrastructure for banks. XRP’s role here could scale from mere remittance corridors into the backbone of tokenized assets, enabling settlement for tokenized treasuries, commodities, and equities. Price models tied to this adoption envision XRP hitting $54 by 2029 and breaching $149 by 2032 under aggressive adoption scenarios. Each milestone—$10, $30, $90—depends less on short-term whale flows and more on RippleNet’s penetration into traditional finance.

Market Sentiment and Risk Management

Investor psychology remains divided. Bulls highlight the legal clarity, ODL corridor growth, and $3 breakout potential, while bears focus on the 93% profitability, whale exits, and stiff resistance at $3.06–$3.50. Spot volume spikes above 155 million intraday, nearly triple the norm, suggest institutions are active at these levels, but not all flows are bullish. Short-term setups hinge on defending $2.85; a failure opens the door to $2.63 and deeper stress. Long-term holders continue to eye $6–$10 as the logical next range once supply flushes and regulatory clarity draws fresh inflows.

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