Ripple XRP-USD Price Rejected Near $3 as ETF Optimism Battles On-Chain Sell Signals

Ripple (XRP-USD) Faces Crossroads: ETF Momentum Battles Whale Pressure

XRP Rebounds to $2.93–$3.01 Zone Amid ETF Catalyst and Whale Dumping

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) has surged nearly 26% in the past week, testing the $3.01 resistance before pulling back slightly to $2.93. While this represents the coin’s highest trading zone since its all-time peak, a visible tug-of-war has emerged between ETF optimism and on-chain warning signs.

The price rallied sharply into July 16, bolstered by institutional accumulation and macro tailwinds, only to meet consistent selling walls near $2.93–$3.01. At least four breakout attempts above $2.93 were rejected in the last 48 hours, according to liquidity footprint data. This wasn’t retail exhaustion—it was strategic unloading by whales and treasury desks.

ETF Listings and Futures Activity Fuel Institutional Rotation

XRP’s performance is no accident—it’s being driven by the scheduled July 18 launch of the ProShares XRP Futures ETF, a landmark event that has sent trading desks into a repositioning frenzy. With XRP Open Interest spiking from $3.54 billion to $7.9 billion in just over three weeks, institutions are clearly betting on volatility.

However, the 45% drop in XRP derivatives volume to $13 billion signals waning near-term enthusiasm. In the absence of fresh flows, the $3 breakout case now hinges on new buying momentum ahead of the ETF’s go-live date. Treasury rotation has so far centered between $2.84 and $2.88—clearly defined entry zones for smart money—but this band could fail if sell-side pressure intensifies.

Macro Backdrop Adds Firepower to Ripple’s Institutional Appeal

President Trump’s recent post celebrating crypto and calling for “rapid rate cuts due to no inflation” was more than a political tweet—it offered a clear risk-on signal to institutional allocators. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like XRP and Bitcoin, creating a macro backdrop that amplifies utility-focused tokens.

Moreover, Ripple’s emphasis on real-world payments infrastructure via the XRP Ledger and RLUSD stablecoin has begun to attract attention from yield-seeking banks and fintechs, especially as legacy cross-border rails remain inefficient.

Technical Structure Supports Further Upside—If $2.77 Holds

From a technical standpoint, XRP has cleared its 20/50/100/200-day moving averages, confirming bullish momentum. Median line analysis suggests upside continuation if XRP can hold above $2.80. More aggressively, a break above $3.03 could clear the path toward retesting January’s $3.40 high.

But short-term caution is warranted: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 81, firmly in overbought territory. That signals an exhaustion point. A failure to stay above the $2.77–$2.80 support range, which includes the 0.236 Fibonacci level, could unleash a fast 20% drop back to $2.34, the critical 0.618 Fib retracement zone.

Exchange Reserves Spike: Bearish Signal Ignited by Whale Transfers

CryptoQuant data confirms XRP exchange reserves have surged to 2.96 billion tokens, the highest since January. The last time reserves hit this level—in May 2025—XRP cratered 20% from $2.54 to $2.01.

Santiment whale tracking shows a 3-month high in $1M+ transactions, often a harbinger of distribution. These two signals together form a historical bearish pattern. Unless exchange reserves reverse and large holders stop transferring to exchanges, the setup implies heightened sell risk in coming days.

Developer Activity and New Wallet Growth Reinforce Long-Term Bull Thesis

Despite short-term on-chain risks, XRP’s network health remains robust. Glassnode reports daily new wallet addresses averaging 8,690—more than triple the levels from April’s trough. Developer activity on the XRP Ledger is climbing, largely driven by Ripple’s recent partnership with EasyA, which has onboarded a new wave of fintech-focused devs.

On-chain settlement volumes also remain elevated, suggesting XRP’s utility case is not just theoretical but active. These are foundational factors underpinning the long-term bull thesis, regardless of short-term volatility.

Partnerships with Mercado Bitcoin and RLUSD Infrastructure Boost Adoption

Ripple’s integration with Mercado Bitcoin, involving tokenized asset migration to the XRP Ledger, is one of the more underappreciated catalysts. Combined with the build-out of Ripple Payments and the launch of RLUSD as a regulated stablecoin, XRP is increasingly positioned as the most institutionally viable L1 solution outside Ethereum.

These efforts directly support price via transaction volume, user growth, and real-world application. They also increase the likelihood of XRP receiving favorable treatment under new regulatory regimes.

U.S. Legislative Tailwinds Could Trigger Structural Repricing

The House appears ready to vote on the GENIUS Act, CLARITY Act, and Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act, bills that could legitimize stablecoins and provide regulatory clarity for tokens like XRP. With President Trump publicly backing the legislation, and French Hill confirming they have the votes, a regulatory greenlight could be imminent.

The ripple effect (pun intended) would be massive: institutional allocators who’ve been sidelined due to regulatory ambiguity may finally open floodgates. Ripple’s dual-token ecosystem—XRP and RLUSD—is particularly well-positioned to benefit.

Verdict: Buy on Dip Below $2.80, Chase Breakout Above $3.03

The XRP price forecast heading into late July is defined by a high-stakes ETF catalyst, macro tailwinds from rate expectations, and foundational strength in developer adoption and real-world usage. However, it’s being opposed by whale distribution and overheated RSI conditions that mirror past local tops.

Buy Rating if XRP dips near $2.77–$2.80 with declining exchange reserves. Strong Buy above $3.03 with volume confirmation. Near-term bearish if $2.77 breaks and whale activity persists.

Current price: $2.93
Upside to Jan high ($3.40): +16%
Downside risk to $2.34 Fib zone: −20%
Mid-term target (post-ETF): $3.50–$4.00 range

This is a Buy on weakness, hold for breakout play—but positioning must be precise.

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