Ripple XRP-USD Rallies Above $3 as XRPI and XRPR ETFs Ignite $10 B Inflow Forecasts and 100% Upside Outlook

Ripple (XRP-USD) Breaks $3 Barrier as ETF Momentum Builds Around XRPI and XRPR

Ripple’s native token XRP-USD is consolidating above $3.02 after gaining more than 9% in the past 24 hours. The rally follows mounting optimism surrounding the pending approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs, including the XRP ETF (XRPI) and REX-Osprey XRPR ETF, both of which have already begun attracting speculative inflows despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown freezing SEC operations.

The current XRP price range of $3.10–$3.30 remains a technical battleground, with bulls defending key support near $2.94 while aiming for a decisive break toward $3.50. Market depth shows growing accumulation ahead of ETF decisions scheduled between October 18 and October 25, which could trigger simultaneous approvals for multiple funds similar to the wave that lifted Bitcoin earlier this year.

ETF Pipeline: $10 Billion Potential Inflows as Institutional Interest Peaks

Momentum for XRP’s next major leg higher is being fueled by ETF speculation. Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg projects that XRP-based ETFs could attract as much as $10 billion in inflows, doubling his earlier estimate of $5 billion. He referenced the first Bitcoin futures ETF that saw $1 billion in one day, predicting XRP ETFs could surpass $2–3 billion on day one.

These inflows, if realized, would rank XRP ETFs among the top 20 ETF launches in financial history, potentially joining elite ranks alongside funds like IBIT and FBTC. This influx of liquidity would not only boost XRP’s price but also expand institutional participation in digital assets beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Spot ETF Landscape: XRPI and XRPR Take Center Stage

Two funds are leading the charge: the XRP ETF (XRPI) managed by Volatility Shares LLC and the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF.

XRPI, priced around $18.28, manages $198.82 million in assets and provides exposure to XRP futures contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although categorized under Digital Assets, its structure uses a blend of futures and cash equivalents, making it a bridge product for institutional investors seeking compliance under U.S. law.

Meanwhile, XRPR trades near $25.05, fluctuating between $24.90 – $25.56, with an average daily volume exceeding 200,000 shares. Though it positions itself as a “spot exposure” product, its filings clarify that holdings are not entirely direct XRP but synthetic positions that replicate XRP returns. This nuanced distinction is key for institutions waiting on SEC clearance of pure spot ETFs that would directly hold XRP.

Regulatory Shift Under Trump Revives Crypto Optimism

The policy backdrop has turned decisively more crypto-friendly. The Trump administration’s executive order to strengthen America’s role in digital asset leadership and the nomination of crypto advocate Paul Atkins as SEC Chair mark a radical shift from the enforcement-heavy era under former Chairman Gary Gensler.

The repeal of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB-121) has been particularly pivotal. The bulletin had prevented U.S. banks from offering crypto custody services due to strict capital reserve requirements. Its removal opens the door for major custodians like JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), BNY Mellon, and Citigroup (NYSE:C) to integrate crypto services — potentially channeling institutional liquidity toward XRP-linked products.

Simultaneously, joint SEC–CFTC roundtables are shaping the regulatory future of digital assets, signaling early moves toward unified oversight — a major step for institutional trust in tokens like XRP.

Ripple’s Expanding Ecosystem: RLUSD Stablecoin and Banking Integrations

Ripple continues reinforcing its utility-driven approach to cross-border payments. Its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) system, which leverages XRP as a bridge asset, enables near-instant settlements at lower costs compared to the SWIFT network.

In December 2024, Ripple launched Ripple USD (RLUSD), a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, to counter the volatility concerns that limited XRP adoption among financial institutions. While RLUSD has yet to challenge heavyweights like USDC or USDT, it creates incremental XRP demand through mandatory transaction fees in XRP.

Ripple’s recent partnerships with Santander, SBI Japan, and BNY highlight growing institutional alignment, and its acquisition of Hidden Road, a prime broker facilitating access to XRP liquidity pools, enhances traditional finance connectivity.

Technical Structure and Market Sentiment

Price action shows compression within a narrowing range, often preceding a breakout. Analysts identify resistance at $3.15 and support between $2.80–$2.93, suggesting XRP is coiling for volatility.

Technical analyst Egrag Crypto notes that XRP trades well below the historical “Chasm Line”, a resistance threshold observed in previous cycles. A decisive break above $3.30 could open the path toward $5.00–$6.00, aligning with Standard Chartered’s medium-term forecast of $12.50 by 2028, implying 325% upside from current levels.

Volume metrics from Bitfinex and Binance reveal increased whale accumulation, while RSI levels near 59 indicate rising momentum but not yet overbought conditions.

Comparative Macro Context: Bitcoin’s Shadow and ETF Influence

Bitcoin’s move to $122,731 has reignited altcoin rotations. The cryptocurrency surged 165% since its spot ETF approval in January 2024, setting a precedent for XRP’s potential response once its ETFs are cleared. If XRP ETFs mirror even half of Bitcoin’s post-approval performance, XRP could breach $6 in the near term.

Furthermore, institutional funds such as Grayscale, WisdomTree, and CoinShares have maintained active XRP ETF filings despite regulatory pauses, reflecting long-term confidence in XRP’s legal clarity and market potential.

Volatility Outlook and Risk Spectrum

Despite the bullish structure, XRP remains a volatile asset. Over the past year, it suffered two 20%+ drawdowns, one exceeding 45%, underscoring risk exposure tied to macro sentiment and speculative flows. However, these corrections have been followed by sharp rebounds, suggesting strong hands continue to accumulate on dips.

With the XRPI and XRPR ETFs now trading actively and spot ETF approvals expected later this month, volatility may intensify — but so could upside momentum.

Verdict: XRP-USD Rated BUY — Institutional Flows and ETF Approval Likely to Fuel $5.90–$6.00 Target Zone

Based on aggregated data, Ripple (XRP-USD) presents a strong risk-adjusted upside. Technicals indicate breakout potential, while macro catalysts — Trump-era reforms, ETF inflows projected at $10 billion, and Ripple’s real-world payment adoption — reinforce the bullish case.

XRP’s consolidation near $3.00 offers accumulation potential ahead of ETF approvals. With institutional exposure through XRPI and XRPR ETFs, projected inflows, and a clear regulatory path, XRP’s 2025–2028 trajectory points toward $5.90–$6.00 short-term and $12.50 long-term.

Final Rating: BUY (Bullish Bias) — driven by ETF acceleration, policy clarity, and expanding payment utility.

That's TradingNEWS