SoFi Stock Price Forecast - SOFI Stock Resets to $19 After $3.2B Dilution – Opportunity or Value Trap?

SoFi Stock (NASDAQ:SOFI): Dilution Reset At $19 Creates Asymmetric Setup

Price Reset, Current Levels And What The Market Is Really Pricing In

SoFi Stock (NASDAQ:SOFI) trades near $19.33, down from a $32.73 52-week high after about $3.2 billion in equity raises cut existing ownership by roughly 16% in six months. The selloff is not tied to collapsing fundamentals. It is a repricing from a 90x style fintech multiple toward a forward low-30s P/E on 2026 guidance. With revenue still growing above 30% YoY and net income positive, the stock now trades like a high-growth bank that needs to prove it deserves a premium, not like a speculative story with no earnings.

From Student Loans To Scaled Digital Bank With A National Charter

SoFi began as a refinancing niche and now operates as a regulated US bank after acquiring Golden Pacific Bancorp in 2022. The bank charter is the structural upgrade. It allows the company to fund loans with insured deposits instead of relying mainly on warehouse lines and capital markets. That switch is visible in the funding stack and in the margin profile and is a key reason earnings can scale without blowing out risk or cost of capital.

Deposit Engine, Funding Cost And The 5%+ Margin Advantage

Deposits reached roughly $38 billion, up about $4.6 billion quarter on quarter. That gives access to funding that is about 1.81% cheaper than alternative sources the company previously used. Net interest margin runs above 5%, well ahead of large legacy banks that often operate in the low-to-mid-3% range. With deposits around $37.5–38.0B, the balance sheet is now large enough that each incremental dollar of loan growth has a clear, low-cost funding base rather than a dependence on volatile markets.

Members, Products And Ecosystem Scale Driving Operating Leverage

Membership closed 4Q25 at about 13.65 million, up 161% since the bank charter was granted. The platform spans checking and savings, credit cards, personal and home loans, investing, insurance partnerships and travel. As more people use multiple products, average revenue per user rises and the cost to add one more product stays low. That is why operating income reached roughly $185 million in the quarter and why the model shows increasing leverage as scale builds.

Quarter Snapshot: $1 Billion Revenue, 31% EBITDA Margin, Ninth Profitable Quarter

Quarterly adjusted net revenue reached around $1.0 billion, up roughly 38% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in near $318 million, a 31% margin. GAAP net income printed at $174 million, marking the ninth straight profitable quarter, and adjusted EPS was $0.13. Tangible book value is around $8.9 billion, or $7.03 per share, so the stock trades near 2.7x TBV at today’s price. For a bank-licensed platform growing revenue above 30% YoY, that multiple is not cheap, but it is materially lower than where it traded when the story was priced like pure fintech.

Loan Growth, Originations And The Rising Credit Sensitivity In Personal Loans

Loan originations hit a record $10.5 billion in 4Q25, up about 57% YoY, showing that core lending remains in expansion mode. The book is weighted toward personal loans, which deliver attractive yields but are unsecured and sensitive to employment and income shocks. Net charge-offs and default rates have edged higher quarter on quarter. The fair-value marks on these loans are still within controlled ranges, but any real deterioration in consumer credit would force the market to treat the name more like a cyclical lender than a durable platform.

Capital Raise, Dilution, Tangible Book And Why The Market Reacted Violently

The $3.2 billion of common equity raised in 2025 is the simple reason the stock fell from the high-20s to the high-teens. Management chose balance sheet strength and growth optionality over protecting a stretched multiple. The capital was used to pay down higher-cost debt and to fund earning assets, which supports future EPS. The cost was dilution of roughly 16%. At $19.33 and $7.03 tangible book per share, the market now pays roughly 2.7x TBV for a bank that is targeting high-30s EPS growth, instead of paying a story-level 90x P/E for a thin-capital fintech. Anyone looking at equity issuance risk should track capital decisions alongside valuation. 

Fee Revenue, Loan Platform And The Shift Away From Pure Balance Sheet Risk

Fee-based revenue now accounts for about 43% of total revenue. The financial services and technology platform units generated roughly $579.1 million of net revenue in 4Q25, up about 61% YoY. Inside that, the Loan Platform Business delivered around $194 million of adjusted revenue in the quarter. That structure is important. SoFi can originate and service loans for others and collect fees without holding all of the credit on its own books. As fee share climbs, earnings quality improves, capital intensity drops and the model looks less like a leveraged lender and more like a hybrid bank-plus-platform.

Technology Platform: Optionality With Real Questions Around Consistency

The technology platform is the piece the market wants to reward with a higher multiple, but it has not earned that treatment yet. Accounts tied to the platform fell around 19% QoQ and have been unstable for five quarters. That suggests concentration risk and uneven client activity. For the platform narrative to stick, growth in accounts and revenue needs to look boring and predictable, not lumpy and client-specific. Until that changes, valuation will be anchored by banking economics and fee revenue, rather than by a standalone SaaS-style premium.

Earnings Path: From $0.39 To $0.60 To $0.81 And What That Implies For Valuation

EPS ended 2025 around $0.39. Management guides to about $0.60 in adjusted EPS for 2026 and targets roughly 40% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2028. Street estimates cluster near $0.81 EPS by 2027. At $19.33, that implies a trailing P/E near 50x, a forward 2026 P/E around 32x, and a forward 2027 P/E near 24x if the share price does not move. That is the core equation. If revenue continues to grow around 30%+ and EPS holds a mid-30s to 40% growth path, the multiple can compress toward the mid-20s and the equity can still compound strongly. If growth stalls or credit losses spike, the multiple can slide toward the mid-teens and the downside from these levels becomes material.

Macro, Credit And Capital Risks That Can Break The Thesis

The main external risk is macro. SoFi leans heavily on personal loans, so weaker employment or a sharp slowdown in consumption would hit demand and raise defaults at the same time. That would pressure net interest income and could force tighter underwriting that slows growth. On the platform side, any major client loss would expose concentration and challenge the narrative that technology revenue can smooth cycles. On capital, the market has already signaled a low tolerance for further large equity issuance. Another multi-billion-dollar common raise would likely trigger another derating, regardless of the strategic logic.

Final View On SoFi Stock (NASDAQ:SOFI): High-Beta Buy With Execution Test

At around $19.33, SoFi Stock (NASDAQ:SOFI) trades at about 30–32x 2026 EPS guidance of $0.60 and roughly 24x 2027 consensus near $0.81 while still growing revenue above 30% and shifting mix toward fee and platform income. Deposits near $38B, record $10.5B quarterly originations, $1.0B quarterly revenue, $318M adjusted EBITDA at a 31% margin and nine consecutive profitable quarters all point to a business that is scaling, not stalling. The reset from $33 to the high-teens reflects dilution and a lower tolerance for equity-financed growth, not a collapse in fundamentals. With those conditions, the stock is best classified as a Buy for those who can tolerate volatility and accept that execution on credit quality, fee mix and platform stability must stay tight. If management delivers on the $0.60 and $0.81 EPS path without another major equity hit, the current reset has more upside than downside from here.

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